Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS North Platte, NE

254 
WWUS53 KLBF 050125
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
725 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

NEC069-161-050200-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-110805T0200Z/
GARDEN NE-SHERIDAN NE-
725 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SHERIDAN AND NORTHERN GARDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 721 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HERMAN LAKE...OR 26 MILES
EAST OF ALLIANCE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELLSWORTH...KENNEDY LAKE...JERRY LAKE AND KINCAID LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 10272 4211 10206 4180 10208 4191 10269
      4199 10269 4201 10270 4208 10271 4209 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 280DEG 21KT 4197 10237
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

SPRINGER

834 
WWUS53 KLBF 050158
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
758 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

NEC069-161-050208-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-110805T0200Z/
GARDEN NE-SHERIDAN NE-
758 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHERN
GARDEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM MDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4211 10272 4211 10206 4180 10208 4191 10269
      4199 10269 4201 10270 4208 10271 4209 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 280DEG 21KT 4194 10212

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY)...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AGAIN HANGS ON THE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S BUT IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE THE STORMS HAVE BEEN GIVING THE SHORT AND
MEDIUM TERM MODELS DIFFICULTY IN THE LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION.
WATCHING THE CURRENT CONVECTION WE SEE THE HITCHCOCK COUNTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY AND THIS MAY BE A PREFERRED
AREA TO CONTINUE ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE EAST.  THE RUC AND HRR
HAVE SHOWN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
DO NOT SEE THAT EVIDENCE. SO OFFERED A BLANKET 30 POPS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH LOWER POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS EVENING.  SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING TOWARD EVENING.

AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION MOVES EAST...THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE INITIATION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THEN ENTERING THE CWA. THIS WILL BE TIED TO
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SO ATTEMPTED TO TIME
IN A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE
RAIN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH KINDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.  STORM MOTION IS PERHAPS BETTER TONIGHT
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT THAT CERTAINLY WAS NOT HELPFUL FOR THE
HITCHCOCK STORM THIS AFTERNOON...SO ISOLATED RAINFALL GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR FRIDAY...MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND OVERTOPS THE EXISTING SURFACE LEE TROF. DECENT
INSTABILITY INDICATED ALOFT BY THE 04.12 NAM AND GFS BUFR FCST
SOUDINGS ALSO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE
INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT THE
DETERMINISTIC EVOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. RESUTING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP WOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN INITIALLY...BUT LATE SUNSHINE SHOULD
WARM THINGS UP LATER...THOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

NEXT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN OVER EASTERN
OREGON...WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL SERVE TO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP WHICH GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO HAVE HANDLED WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMOUNG
SOLUTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
FCST BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PROGGED CIN VALUES SUGGEST MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN CAPPED WITH WARM AIR IN THE 750-650MB LAYER. HAVE STILL
INCLUDED LOW POPS WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SHOULD THE
CAP NOT HOLD. IN ADDITION...WITH BETTER SHEAR /AOA 40KTS/ ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SVR
TSRA SHOULD CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOP. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA TWD SUNSET AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS INDICATED BY LLJ. GFS KEEPS RESULTING CONVECTION SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL POSTION OF THE
FRONT. THE 04.18 NAM AND 04.12 GEM PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE GFS/EC BUT HAVE SEEN THE GFS NOT PUSH THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH IN RECENT WEEKS SO WOULD GENERALLY SIDE WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH
POSITION AT THIS POINT.

FOR SUNDAY...FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
POSITION AGAIN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN EASTERLY
FLOW...SIMILAR TO YDAY AND TODAY. EVENTUAL POSITION OF FRONT WILL
DICTATE COVERAGE OF TSRA FOR WESTERN NEBR AND WILL TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT HAVE GENERALLY TRIED TO TIME PRECIP
IN DIURANLLY FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE DAY...LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND...SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVER
UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH THIS IDEA...THOUGH THEIR HANDLING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM FEATURES...WHICH ARE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT TO THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION...ARE DIFFERENT AND POSE SOME FORECAST ISSUES. BY MID WEAK
WILL LIKELY SEE NOT ONLY COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER THOUGH EXISTING
FORECAST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL. HOWEVER...HIGHS BY MID WEEK ONLY IN
THE 75-80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S COULD BECOME COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT TO COME THROUGH ON MONDAY AND REINFORCED LATE
TUESDAY WILL STILL LOSE MOMENTUMM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST
AND WITH A RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER 6Z EXPECT
MVFR/IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
2.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THEY DID THIS MORNING...SLOWLY WITH
BR/FG CLEARING BY 14Z AND ANY STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT AROUND 16Z.

THUNDERSTORM LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BUT
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ACTIVITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING...TO THE WEST AND THEN MOVE BACK OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HIRSCH
LONG TERM...JWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
342 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011 /242 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON A SURFACE TROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WITH
WEAK SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ONLY MODERATE SHEAR IN THE
DEEP LAYER...THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE TORRENTIAL RAIN AND INTENSE
OUTFLOW GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT
STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EACH DAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
750 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

NEZ004-022-050145-
GARDEN NE-SHERIDAN NE-
650 PM MDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHERIDAN AND GARDEN
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

AT 649 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WICKSON LAKE TO MILES LAKE TO 15 MILES WEST OF RICHARDSON LAKE...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  OSHKOSH...
  ANTIOCH...
  TRALNOR LAKE...
  WICKSON LAKE...
  RICHARDSON LAKE...
  DIAMOND LAKE...
  HERMAN LAKE...
  LAKESIDE...
  LISCO...
  CRESCENT LAKE NWR...
  PATTERSON LAKE...
  DEER LAKE...
  ARGO HILL...
  BRITTON LAKE...
  DOGTOWN FLATS...
  JERRY LAKE...
  ELLSWORTH...
  KENNEDY LAKE...
  KINCAID LAKE...
  WATSON LAKE...

SPRINGER