Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Jackson, KY

807 
WGUS73 KJKL 152320
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

KYC025-153-160030-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-110716T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAGOFFIN KY-BREATHITT KY-
720 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL BREATHITT
AND SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN 
AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD CROSSED THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE 
INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITH ISOLATED 
HIGHER AMOUNTS. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...CAMP LEWIS...CARVER...CARVER STATION...CONLEY STATION... 
DAISYDELL...DUCO...EVANSTON...GUAGE...LAMBRIC...LUNAH... 
MARSHALLVILLE...ORDWAY...SWAMPTON...TIPTOP AND WALDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 8295 3753 8306 3753 8307 3753 8308
      3751 8320 3764 8321 3768 8299

$$

GREIF

023 
WGUS73 KJKL 160029
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
829 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

KYC025-153-160044-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-110716T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MAGOFFIN KY-BREATHITT KY-
829 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
BREATHITT AND SOUTHERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
830 PM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3754 8295 3753 8306 3753 8307 3753 8308
      3751 8320 3764 8321 3768 8299

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

THE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH IS NOT MATERIALIZING. WAS ABLE TO
CHANGE THE ZONE FORECAST AND THE POINT AND CLICK FORECAST BEFORE
SENDING IT OUT. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS NOW SLOWLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTH. BECAUSE IT HAS STALLED SOME...THERE COULD BE SOME
CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSING RUNNING FULL AND SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY TODAY AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL LOOKING AT THE GRADIENT ON THETA E ON THE NAM.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SO SLOWLY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SMALL STREAMS TO AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS TO BECOME FULL. ALSO EXPECT SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG TO FORM
DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN THE AFTERMATH OF ALL THE THIS AFTERNOON
RAINFALL. THESE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AND WILL BRING MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW MOS FOR THE HIGHS. HAVE
BEEN USING THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS FORECAST TO TWEAK THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD BE OUR LAST SHOT OF RAIN FOR A WHILE AND
WILL HELP THE GARDENS. EXPECT YOU MIGHT BE WATERING THEM BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE
AND CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS A RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD
DOMINATED BY THE STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE MIDDLE 2/3
OF THE CONUS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF ERN CANADA ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHARPEN UP THE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS PUTTING ERN KY INTO A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WHERE WE WOULD BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE. MOISTURE RETURN
INDUCED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LOOKS TO
FUEL INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY ONWARD...AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT...BUT BREAKABLE MID LEVEL CAP...IF WE CAN GET
A DECENT TRIGGER. THE 15.12Z GFS/GEM BOTH DEPICT SOME TRANSIENT MID
LEVEL ENERGY CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WHILE THE 15.12Z EURO SHOWS A SIMILAR FEATURE
DURING THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSTMS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WINDOW WILL BE REFINED SOMEWHAT AS THIS TIME FRAME DRAWS CLOSER.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYS
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO START THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER
90S OR BETTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCALS
SEEING NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE
THRU THE PERIOD AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

THE CONVECTION HAS CAUSED LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITIES THAT WHAT
WAS EXPECTED. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE TAF STATIONS WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE NORTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTH AS WELL. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWING WITH
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THEM. THE BIG QUESTION THEN
BECOMES THE FOG AS TO WHEN IT WILL FORM AND HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY
WELL BECOME. THE TAF REALLY REFLECTS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE MOS
GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE
ARE SEEING TODAY...IT IS A GOOD BET TO SEE THE FOG TO FORM AND GET
DOWN PRETTY LOW TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ/JJ
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
421 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-162330-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
421 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY CAUSE STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSING TO RUN FULL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JP/JJ