Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER
ILLINOIS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LITTLE OR NO PCPN WAS NOTED ON LOCAL RADARS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 55 SO HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS BACK WATER AREAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP WITH
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A GUST TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT IS OVER OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE
EVENING. AS THE CLOSE LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT A LAYER OF STRATOCU IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER ZONES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SHORT TERM FROM
TONIGHT ON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AS WELL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST DECENT INSOLATION IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALLOW SITES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAKE IT ONLY INTO THE LOWER 70S. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTH WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RESULTING IN A FINE SPRING DAY. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
THE CLOSED LOW WILL STILL BE SPINNING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY WHEN A
POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
SUNDAY SHOULD TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST MISSISSIPPI. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND MAV WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED. GUIDANCE POPS WERE CUT
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. /22/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY MONDAY...STRONGER CAA TAKES
PLACE WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING DOWN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 DEGREES UNDER
STRONGER NORTH LOW-LVL FLOW AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE ROTATES ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING LIMITED
INSOLATION GIVEN CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS DECK...SOME LOCATIONS MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S EXCEPT FOR SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE 84 CORRIDOR. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY MORNING COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS CLOUDS
BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BUT SHOW
ENOUGH AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO
NOSE IN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S AFTER REDUCING MEX GUIDANCE
AND USING LOW END MENMOS VALUES GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A SLOWLY MODIFYING AND
WARMING AIRMASS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. RETURN FLOW COULD
HAPPEN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP IN TO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK(FRIDAY)...THE OPS GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF
IN RESOLVING A POTENT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT ALLOWS FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND POTENTIALLY
THE NEXT BIG CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING THE POTENT MID-LVL TROUGHING
MUCH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN GIVEN THAT IT HAS RESOLVED
THE EASTERN CONUS CUT-OFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER...THUS POSSIBLY CREATING MORE MID- TO UPPER-LVL BLOCKING
AND THUS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS OPS GFS. HAVE OPTED TO PLAY THE
MIDDLE ROAD AT THIS STAGE AND REDUCED MEX POPS FOR FRIDAY GIVEN GFS
BIASED NATURE OF BEING TOO PROGRESSIVE./ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED BRINGING WITH IT BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SWING AROUND
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  75  53  73 /  23   4   5   3
MERIDIAN      56  75  53  75 /  36   6   7   5
VICKSBURG     56  75  49  72 /  13   4   3   3
HATTIESBURG   61  81  54  78 /  27   4   2   3
NATCHEZ       57  75  50  73 /  13   3   2   3
GREENVILLE    56  73  51  70 /  18   6   9   5
GREENWOOD     56  73  51  70 /  27   8   8   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

22/ALLEN/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ026>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-072>074-142045-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO COLUMBIA.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063-142045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

22

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ026>028-132025-
GRENADA MS-CARROLL MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
241 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF DUCK HILL AT 241 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GRENADA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3369 8953 3354 8961 3352 8991 3367 8990
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 263DEG 12KT 3362 8979

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ073-074-132055-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME
SIZE HAIL AND 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
LUMBERTON AT 311 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3101 8935 3101 8941 3099 8943 3099 8946
      3102 8951 3102 8954 3100 8955 3100 8965
      3106 8965 3144 8940 3142 8915 3093 8914
      3092 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 256DEG 50KT 3101 8934

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ052-132055-
LAUDERDALE MS-
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER SUQUALENA AT 312 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3255 8849 3231 8846 3231 8887 3255 8889
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 267DEG 13KT 3242 8880

DHB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ064>066-132100-
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER LONE STAR AT 315 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS...JONES AND COVINGTON COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3180 8909 3148 8897 3145 8965 3154 8974
      3171 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 248DEG 34KT 3166 8968

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ028-029-032-132120-
WEBSTER MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
DUCK HILL TO CHESTER AT 337 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CHOCTAW...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3356 8908 3338 8908 3328 8926 3352 8979
      3361 8979 3369 8965 3368 8951 3373 8950
      3373 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 236DEG 19KT 3357 8968 3337 8926

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
446 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

MSZ056-057-132225-
SMITH MS-JASPER MS-
446 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PINEVILLE AT 447
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3213 8900 3198 8941 3214 8951 3223 8935
      3223 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 242DEG 16KT 3210 8937

BYB