Alert archive / Ohio / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 7, NWS Northern Indiana

February 19, 2011Defiance County, Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio

NWS Northern Indiana issued this river flood warning at Feb 19, 2011, 8:54 PM EST for Defiance County, Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio. It took effect at Feb 20, 2011, 10:02 AM EST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 19, 2011, 8:54 PM EST (01:54 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 20, 2011, 10:02 AM EST
Expired
Feb 24, 2011, 9:30 PM EST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Northern Indiana
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Williams County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Tiffin River at Stryker (STRO1). The gauge peaked at 11.91 ft at Feb 21, 2011, 7:00 PM EST.

actionminormoderate81012141602/2002/2102/2202/2302/2402/2502/26
Action stage
9 ft
Minor stage
11 ft
Moderate stage
15 ft
Major stage
16.5 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04185000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

765 
WGUS43 KIWX 200154
FLWIWX
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
854 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES

.RECENT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF HAS LED TO RISING WATER LEVELS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN. THIS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED 
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MINOR RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

OHC039-051-171-210154-
/O.NEW.KIWX.FL.W.0007.110220T2000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.110220T2000Z.110222T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
854 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
  AND CREST NEAR 12.5 FEET AROUND 1 AM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22.
* AT 13.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT SOME FARM BUILDINGS 
  NEAR STRYKER AND FLOOD SOME SECONDARY ROADS.

$$
10 follow-up statements
433 
WGUS83 KIWX 201459
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
959 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  MAUMEE RIVER NEAR DEFIANCE AFFECTING DEFIANCE AND HENRY COUNTIES 
  SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR AFFECTING ADAMS...ALLEN AND VAN WERT 
  COUNTIES 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
.RECENT SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN RIVER LEVELS
ACROSS THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN. THIS HAS CAUSED MINOR RIVER FLOODING
TO CONTINUE ON THE MAUMEE RIVER NEAR DEFIANCE...ON THE SAINT MARYS 
RIVER NEAR DECATUR...AND ON THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

OHC039-069-211459-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110222T0000Z/
/DEFO1.1.ER.110219T0948Z.110220T1443Z.110221T0000Z.NO/
959 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011


  FOR THE MAUMEE RIVER NEAR DEFIANCE 
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 10 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 10.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND  7 PM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 20.

$$

INC001-003-OHC161-211459-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110224T1000Z/
/DCRI3.1.ER.110218T0817Z.110219T0830Z.110223T1000Z.NO/
959 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011


  FOR THE SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR 
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 17.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND  5 AM WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 23.
* AT 18.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 225 NORTH...JUST NORTH OF PLEASANT MILLS
  INDIANA IS CLOSED BY FLOOD WATER. LOW LAND AREAS OF KEKIONGA PARK 
  ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF DECATUR BEGIN FLOODING. FLOODING IS 
  LIMITED TO FARM LAND IN PLEASANT MILLS INDIANA AND WILSHIRE OHIO.

$$

OHC039-051-171-211459-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0007.110220T1502Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.110220T1502Z.110222T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
959 AM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
  FOR THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER 
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.9 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING AND
  CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET AROUND  1 AM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22. ADDITIONAL 
  RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* AT 12.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 66 FLOOD NORTH OF ARCHBOLD.

$$
395 
WGUS83 KIWX 210146
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
846 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  WABASH RIVER NEAR LINN GROVE AFFECTING ADAMS AND WELLS COUNTIES 
  WABASH RIVER NEAR BLUFFTON AFFECTING HUNTINGTON AND WELLS COUNTIES 
  SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR AFFECTING ADAMS...ALLEN AND VAN WERT 
  COUNTIES 
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 

  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS
  COUNTIES 
 
.RECENT SNOWMELT AND EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINOR FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER 
WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

INC001-179-212323-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110221T2323Z/
/LYNI3.1.RS.110219T0406Z.110219T2000Z.110220T2323Z.NO/
846 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

  FOR THE WABASH RIVER NEAR LINN GROVE 
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
* AT 6 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 11.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND  6 AM MONDAY FEBRUARY 21.
* AT 11.0 FEET...AGRICULTURAL FLOODING BEGINS. LOW LANDS EAST OF 
  GENEVA BEGIN TO FLOOD.

$$

INC069-179-220146-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110222T1600Z/
/BLFI3.1.RS.110218T1841Z.110220T1300Z.110221T1600Z.NO/
846 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

  FOR THE WABASH RIVER NEAR BLUFFTON 
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 8 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 10.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND 11 AM MONDAY FEBRUARY 21.
* AT 12.0 FEET...RIVER ROAD AND A FEW COUNTY ROADS ARE CLOSED BY HIGH
  WATER.

$$

INC001-003-OHC161-220146-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110224T0800Z/
/DCRI3.1.RS.110218T0817Z.110219T0830Z.110223T0800Z.NO/
846 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

  FOR THE SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR 
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 18.6 FEET AROUND 1 
  AM MONDAY FEBRUARY 21 AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 3 AM 
  WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 23.
* AT 18.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 225 NORTH...JUST NORTH OF PLEASANT MILLS
  INDIANA IS CLOSED BY FLOOD WATER. LOW LAND AREAS OF KEKIONGA PARK 
  ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF DECATUR BEGIN FLOODING. FLOODING IS 
  LIMITED TO FARM LAND IN PLEASANT MILLS INDIANA AND WILSHIRE OHIO.

$$

OHC039-051-171-220145-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
846 PM EST SUN FEB 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 8 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 13.2 FEET AROUND 7 
  AM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22 AND BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT SOME FARM BUILDINGS 
  NEAR STRYKER AND FLOOD SOME SECONDARY ROADS.

$$
879 
WGUS83 KIWX 211432
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
932 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR AFFECTING ADAMS...ALLEN AND VAN WERT 
  COUNTIES 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
.MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN AS RECENT
SNOWMELT CAUSED THE RIVERS TO INCREASE LATE LAST WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION RECEIVED YESTERDAY AND MORE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW THE RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY RISE OR PROLONG MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

INC001-003-OHC161-221432-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110223T2100Z/
/DCRI3.1.RS.110218T0817Z.110219T0830Z.110222T2100Z.NO/
932 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011


  FOR THE SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR 
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 7 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.2 FEET AND SLOWLY FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 17.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND  4 PM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22.
* AT 18.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 225 NORTH...JUST NORTH OF PLEASANT MILLS
  INDIANA IS CLOSED BY FLOOD WATER. LOW LAND AREAS OF KEKIONGA PARK 
  ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF DECATUR BEGIN FLOODING. FLOODING IS 
  LIMITED TO FARM LAND IN PLEASANT MILLS INDIANA AND WILSHIRE OHIO.

$$

OHC039-051-171-221431-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110227T0400Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T1200Z.110226T0400Z.NO/
932 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011


  FOR THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER 
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 9 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET AROUND  7 
  AM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22 AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 11 PM 
  FRIDAY FEBRUARY 25.
* AT 12.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 66 FLOOD NORTH OF ARCHBOLD.

$$
670 
WGUS83 KIWX 220346
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1046 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  WABASH RIVER NEAR BLUFFTON AFFECTING HUNTINGTON AND WELLS COUNTIES 
  SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR AFFECTING ADAMS...ALLEN AND VAN WERT 
  COUNTIES 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
.MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER WABASH
AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

INC069-179-230231-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110223T0231Z/
/BLFI3.1.RS.110218T1841Z.110220T1300Z.110222T0231Z.NO/
1046 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011


  FOR THE WABASH RIVER NEAR BLUFFTON 
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 8 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 10.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND  9 PM MONDAY FEBRUARY 21.
* AT 11.0 FEET...RIVER ROAD AT BLUFFTON BEGINS TO FLOOD.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.0 FEET WHICH OCCURRED 
  ON APR 6 2009.

$$

INC001-003-OHC161-230346-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110224T0200Z/
/DCRI3.1.RS.110218T0817Z.110219T0830Z.110223T0200Z.NO/
1046 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011


  FOR THE SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR 
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* AT 7 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 18.1 FEET AROUND  1 
  AM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22 AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND  9 PM 
  TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22.
* AT 18.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 225 NORTH...JUST NORTH OF PLEASANT MILLS
  INDIANA IS CLOSED BY FLOOD WATER. LOW LAND AREAS OF KEKIONGA PARK 
  ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF DECATUR BEGIN FLOODING. FLOODING IS 
  LIMITED TO FARM LAND IN PLEASANT MILLS INDIANA AND WILSHIRE OHIO.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.5 FEET WHICH OCCURRED 
  ON MAR 20 2008.

$$

OHC039-051-171-230346-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110227T0100Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110226T0100Z.NO/
1046 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011


  FOR THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER 
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 10 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET AND RISING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS CRESTING AT 11.9 FEET AND WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE AROUND  8 PM FRIDAY FEBRUARY 25.
* AT 12.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 66 FLOOD NORTH OF ARCHBOLD.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.9 FEET WHICH OCCURRED 
  ON JUN 8 2010.

$$
453 
WGUS83 KIWX 221655
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1155 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS ROUTE 30 AFFECTING LA PORTE...ST. JOSEPH AND
  STARKE COUNTIES 
  SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR AFFECTING ADAMS...ALLEN AND VAN WERT 
  COUNTIES 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
.THE RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS CAUSED THE KANKAKEE
RIVER AT DAVIS...SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR...AND TIFFIN RIVER
NEAR STRYKER TO GO INTO FLOOD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

INC091-141-149-231655-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110227T1800Z/
/DAVI3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110222T1800Z.110226T1800Z.NO/
1155 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011


  FOR THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS ROUTE 30 
* UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
* THE STAGE IS UNKNOWN.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 10.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND 1 PM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 26.
* AT 10.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AREAS BEGINS.


$$

INC001-003-OHC161-231655-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110223T2200Z/
/DCRI3.1.RS.110218T0817Z.110219T0830Z.110222T2200Z.NO/
1155 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011


  FOR THE SAINT MARYS RIVER NEAR DECATUR 
* UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 17.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND 5 PM TUESDAY FEBRUARY 22.
* AT 17.5 FEET...COUNTY ROAD 225 NORTH OF PLEASANT MILLS IS FLOODED. 
  AGRICULTURAL LAND FLOODING INCREASES IN NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND 
  EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY.

$$

OHC039-051-171-231655-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110226T0300Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110225T0300Z.NO/
1155 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011


  FOR THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER 
* UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
* AT 11 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.7 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 11.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND 10 PM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24.
* AT 12.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 66 FLOOD NORTH OF ARCHBOLD.

$$
936 
WGUS83 KIWX 230238
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
937 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
.MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

OHC039-051-171-240237-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110226T1800Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110225T1800Z.NO/
937 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011


  FOR THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER 
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 9 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET AND STEADY.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 11.6 FEET AROUND 1 
  AM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24 AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 1 PM 
  FRIDAY FEBRUARY 25.
* AT 12.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 66 FLOOD NORTH OF ARCHBOLD.

$$
217 
WGUS83 KIWX 231604
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1104 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 

  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS
  COUNTIES 
 
.MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER DUE TO
RECENT SNOWMELT AND PRECIPITATION. MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

OHC039-051-171-241604-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110226T1800Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110225T1800Z.NO/
1104 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO A CREST NEAR 11.6 FEET AROUND  1 
  AM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24 AND FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND  1 PM 
  FRIDAY FEBRUARY 25.
* AT 12.0 FEET...PORTIONS OF STATE ROUTE 66 FLOOD NORTH OF ARCHBOLD.

$$
865 
WGUS83 KIWX 241608
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1108 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES 
 
.MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER DUE TO 
RECENT SNOWMELT AND PRECIPITATION. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

OHC039-051-171-251500-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110225T1500Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110224T1500Z.NO/
1108 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011


  FOR THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER 
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 11.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND 10 AM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24.
* AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS AROUND STRYKER CAN BE 
  EXPECTED.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.0 FEET WHICH OCCURRED 
  ON APR 23 2009.

$$
378 
WGUS83 KIWX 241617
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1116 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 

  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS
  COUNTIES 
 
.MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER DUE TO
RECENT SNOWMELT AND PRECIPITATION. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  THE 
WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOW CHILDREN TO 
PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR 
LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND UPDATED FORECASTS.

DETAILED RIVER FORECASTS AND MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE 
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX. RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER
THE LEFT MENU BAR UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS.

ALL TIMES ARE IN EASTERN TIME. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS...SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

OHC039-051-171-251500-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110225T1500Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110224T1500Z.NO/
1116 AM EST THU FEB 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE 11.0 FOOT FLOOD STAGE 
  AROUND 10 AM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 24.
* AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS AROUND STRYKER CAN BE 
  EXPECTED.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 11.0 FEET WHICH OCCURRED 
  ON APR 23 2009.

$$
370 
WGUS83 KIWX 250230
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
930 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER AFFECTING DEFIANCE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS 
  COUNTIES
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS HIGH WATER EVENT.

OHC039-051-171-250300-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110225T1500Z/
/STRO1.1.RS.110220T1530Z.110222T0230Z.110224T1500Z.NO/
930 PM EST THU FEB 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TIFFIN RIVER NEAR STRYKER
* AT 9 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 19, 6:45 PM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 6:45 PM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
645 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

.AVIATION...

THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING CLOUDY LATE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. QUICK
SATURATION OF LOWER LEVELS BEING DEPICTED BY MODELS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
WITH STRONG SURGE OF MOIST THETA E AIR AND INCREASING LIFT ON NOSE
OF LOW LEVEL JET. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY WITH A
COMBINATION OF WARMING ALOFT WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING COUPLED WITH
INITIALLY BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS THAT WILL BEGIN TO WARM
SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH MIXED PCPN TYPES SUNDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. DRY SLOT WORKS IN DURING AFTERNOON AND MAY
SEE DRY PERIOD OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT MVFR VIS AND CIGS MAY
ALSO HANG AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOW OVER NEVADA THIS AFTN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
12Z SUNDAY AND TO OH BY 12Z MONDAY. WESTERN U.S. CIRCULATION QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE THIS AFTN AND SHOULD BE STRONG AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...BUT THEN GRDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER MID LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE OVER THE GRTLKS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY
AS A 50 KT LLJ PUNCHES NE INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A BAND OF PRECIP OVERSPREADING AT LEAST THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA AND
PSBLY INCLUDING THE SE AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILES AT ONSET OF
PRECIP SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW OR SLEET BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA
SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP FAIRLY QUICKLY TO FREEZING RAIN AS IT
LIFTS NE THROUGH THE AREA. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD
ALSO SUPPORT GRADUAL WARMING AT THE SURFACE SO EXPECT ALL BUT FAR
NE PORTION OF CWA WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY EVE CHANGING PRECIP
OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO JUST RAIN. AS LOW MOVES INTO OH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK NE BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA
AND PSBLY CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO ZR AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. GIVEN
THESE EXPECTATIONS, GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS WINTER EVENT IS ICE
ACCUM WITH BEST CHC OF REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS FAR NE.
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE TIME DURING SUNDAY AFTN/EVE... HELD OFF ON
UPGRADING WATCH ATTM. FLOODING ALSO A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME FLOODING
SE. WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE SUGGESTS PRECIP MAY
BECOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECT GREATEST
PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE N-NW BUT WITH SOME OF THIS PRECIP FALLING
IN FREEZING/FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS COOLING BELOW FREEZING EARLY IN
THE WEEK... RUNOFF SHOULD BE LIMITED, SO WHILE RISES ON RIVERS AND
SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING PSBL IN THIS AREA DON'T FEEL IT WARRANTS A
FLOOD WATCH ATTM...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES.

AS FOR TEMPS...MOS LOOKED A BIT LOW TONIGHT WITH SELY WINDS PICKING
UP OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASING. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE L30S NE TO THE U40S SOUTH AS LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CAA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
NRN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
30 NORTH TO THE M40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONGLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHLY FLUCTUATING THERMAL FIELDS BEING THE NORM. THE IMPETUS
FOR THIS FLOW REGIME IS TWO FOLD: VERY PERTURBED NORTHERN PAC FLOW
WITH EASTERN PAC LARGE SCALE TROUGH RELOADING CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND A RATHER SHARP LINE BETWEEN A DEEP SNOW PACK AND NO
SNOW PACK AT ALL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WHICH HELPS SUPPORT A
STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING INSOLATION PER THE
INCREASING SUN ANGLE. IN ADDITION...GOMEX BL MOISTURE FLUX IS
INCREASING AS LL DRY INTRUSIONS HAVE CEASED PER THE NORTHERN BIASED
MID LATITUDE STORM TRACK OF LATE. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY ALLOW MUCH
DEEPER SFC CYCLOGENESIS GIVEN LATENT HEAT PROCESSES AND THE
INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD SOLUTIONS
WHICH FAVOR DEEPER SFC REFLECTIONS...WITH NORTHERN BIASES. THE
PROBLEM THEN BECOMES SYSTEM TIMING...WHICH CAN BE DIFFICULT PER POOR
FLOW SAMPLING OVER THE PAC...AND UPPER TROUGH LOCATION OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE GFS HAS HANDLED THE EASTERN PAC UPPER TROUGH BEST THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT/S ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN TRENDED TO BY
HPC OF LATE. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY CLOSED LOW IS STILL QUESTIONABLE...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. FORECAST PREFERENCE WAS TOWARD A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION
/STRONGER SFC REFLECTION/ WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE 12Z GFS AND DGEX
TIMING IN DAYS 5-7. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
ALL CONCERNS WERE HANDLED WELL. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO RE-ENFORCE
TRENDS...BUT OVERALL...NOT MUCH CHANGE AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

MON...PHASED UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST IN THE PERIOD WITH
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION. FORECAST
MODELS STILL INDICATE A LL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH
INCREASED LL CONVERGENCE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WELL EAST OF THE REGION GIVEN
PROGRESSIVE FLOW. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH MID RANGE POPS FOR RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW. PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS DID HINT AT A SECONDARY
IMPULSE ADVECTING NE OUT OF THE SW CONUS...LAGGING THE INITIAL LEAD
WAVE...BUT THIS HAS DISAPPEARED FROM MANY MODEL PROGS WITH
PREFERENCE TOWARD A PHASED PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SNOW ACCUMS WITH ANY MATERIALIZED SNOW...WITH A DUSTING TO ONE HALF
INCH THE NORM ATTM.

TUE-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
MODIFIED CP AIRMASS IN PLACE. HAVE OPTED FOR THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN LOW ALBEDO GROUND CONDITIONS SUPPORTING DEEPER
MIXING...WITH A WARMER BIAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF SNOW PACK. FEEL
MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA ATTM.

THUR-SAT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PREFERRED A 00Z ECMWF TYPE SOLUTION
WITH A TREND TO THE SLOWER GFS UPPER TROUGH EJECTION. THIS PLACES
THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES IN THE THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIODS.
OPTED FOR THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH HPC NUMBERS GIVEN
EXPECTED STRONG WAA FIELDS. A POTENTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY
CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN THE THUR PERIOD...LIMITING
WAA TO A POINT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON WEIGHING TOO HEAVY OF AN
INFLUENCE FROM THIS SYSTEM. MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SW CONUS EJECTING SYSTEM ON THE FRONT END...WITH RAIN EXPECTED IF
THE AMPLIFIED LL REFLECTION MATERIALIZES. CAA IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRAZING INFLUENCE OF LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER
THERMAL FIELDS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE NORM MUCH OF THIS WINTER SEASON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR INZ005>007.

MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ001-002.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...LASHLEY
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 19, 5:27 AM EST, 15 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
527 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

INZ003-004-008-009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ004-005-015-016-
024-025-201030-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-
FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-
HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-
PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...
ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DEFIANCE...
NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS...LIMA
527 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 /427 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT HAS CAUSED RIVER LEVELS TO RISE WITH
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT
JAMMING OF ICE COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-201030-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
527 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

INZ005>007-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-201030-
ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-
HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...
ANGOLA...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...
CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...
BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD
527 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RUNOFF FROM RECENT SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE RIVER LEVELS TO RISE WITH
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MAUMEE RIVER
BASIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAKUP AND SUBSEQUENT JAMMING OF ICE
COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SIGNIFICANT MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 20, 5:02 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningIWXFulton, Williams25 hr
Feb 20, 5:02 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryIWXAllen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more53 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Ohio, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.