Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
650 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...RESULTING
IN NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
TRACK E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING A
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WILL BE FOUND IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SPRINGFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND A HIGH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR.
ONCE THE MID-LEVEL CAP IS BROKEN...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AFTER 5 PM. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NAM/GFS/4KM WRF-NMM ALL AGREE THAT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE KILX CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS
EVENING...THEN ONLY HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE ALONG AND EAST OF I-57
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEMS BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...AS AN AREA OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND BEGIN TRACKING E/NE TOWARD ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS CONCERNING EXACT TRACK OF
LOW...WITH GFS TAKING IT IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF PUSHING IT
NORTHEASTERLY INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE FLAT ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...FAVOR THE ECMWF IN THIS CASE.
WITH SURFACE LOW ONCE AGAIN TRACKING RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH OF PEORIA AND SOARING INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE E/SE CWA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POSITION OF MAIN
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRIDAY
WAVE...GFS PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE
THE ECMWF MAINTAINS IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALONG I-70. ECMWF IS
PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO HERE...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. FURTHER NORTH...THINK A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL BE IN STORE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. ANY LULL IN PRECIP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPS PULL THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTHWARD
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE BOARD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SO FLOODING MAY
BECOME AN ISSUE ON MANY AREA STREAMS/RIVERS.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIT THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS OCCURS...STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT
KSPI/KDEC/KCMI TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH CIGS REMAINING OR BECOMING IFR
FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CIGS...INTO AND THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY...DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-201100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN
TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG
AND EAST OF I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
352 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
723 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     FLASH FLOOD      METAMORA                40.79N 89.36W
04/19/2011                   WOODFORD           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.5 FEET OF WATER ON ROUTE 116 SEVERAL STALLED VEHICLES

&&

LAUFENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
748 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. JOSEPH              40.11N 88.04W
04/19/2011  M74 MPH          CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
757 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N AUBURN              39.59N 89.75W
04/19/2011                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FARM BUILDINGS DAMAGED

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHATHAM                 39.67N 89.70W
04/19/2011                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF DAMAGE IN CHATHAM

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAYLORVILLE             39.52N 89.26W
04/19/2011                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RAIL CARS BLOW OFF TRACKS

0714 PM     TSTM WND GST     MONTICELLO              40.03N 88.57W
04/19/2011  M66.00 MPH       PIATT              IL   MESONET

0730 PM     HAIL             CHAMPAIGN               40.11N 88.26W
04/19/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W MAHOMET             40.19N 88.44W
04/19/2011  E65.00 MPH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60-65 MPH ESTIMATED NEAR CHAMPAIGN AND PIATT COUNTY LINE

0735 PM     HAIL             3 SW PESOTUM            39.88N 88.31W
04/19/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0745 PM     HAIL             OGDEN                   40.12N 87.96W
04/19/2011  M0.50 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW HUTTON            39.41N 88.10W
04/19/2011  E65.00 MPH       COLES              IL   MESONET

&&

LAUFENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
815 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             MOUNT ZION              39.78N 88.88W
04/19/2011  M0.88 INCH       MACON              IL   MESONET

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT ZION              39.78N 88.88W
04/19/2011  E65.00 MPH       MACON              IL   MESONET

&&

LAUFENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
844 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CHARLESTON         39.49N 88.19W
04/19/2011                   COLES              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF HOME AND 8 INCH TREE BLOWN DOWN

0800 PM     HAIL             JAMAICA                 39.98N 87.80W
04/19/2011  M1.00 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ROSSVILLE           40.38N 87.69W
04/19/2011                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

LAUFENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
903 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOOPESTON               40.47N 87.67W
04/19/2011                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN REPORTED BY SPOTERS AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF ILLINOIS ROUTE 1 AND ILLINOIS ROUTE 9

0802 PM     TORNADO          HENNING                 40.31N 87.70W
04/19/2011                   VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER FLASHES ON GROUND AND SHERIFF REPORTED DAMAGE IN
            TOWN.

&&

LAUFENBERG