River Flood Warning 8, NWS Lincoln, IL

306 
WGUS83 KILX 280433
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1033 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN ILLINOIS...
 
  SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO AFFECTING PIATT COUNTY 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROADWAY...TURN AROUND AND FIND AN 
ALTERNATE ROUTE. TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILX  /LOWER CASE/.

&&

ILC147-281833-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0008.110301T0400Z-110304T1200Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.110301T0400Z.110302T1200Z.110304T0600Z.NO/
1033 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO. 
* FROM MONDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT  900 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 13.5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOODING OF AGRICULTURAL AREAS BEGINS.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    MON    TUE    WED

SANGAMON RIVER
 MONTICELLO        13   9.9 SUN 9 PM    11.4   13.2   13.5

$$

SHIMON

036 
WGUS83 KILX 281617
FLSILX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1016 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN 
ILLINOIS...
 
  SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO AFFECTING PIATT COUNTY.

.RAINFALL LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN SANGAMON RIVER BASIN WAS NOT 
AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WHILE THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...IT CURRENTLY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. 

THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED PRECIPITATION...SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION. 

ILC147-281646-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110304T1200Z/
/MNTI2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1016 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SANGAMON RIVER AT MONTICELLO.
* AT  830 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.3 FEET 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

                  FLD  OBSERVED         FORECAST 6 AM
LOCATION          STG  STG  DAY TIME    TUE    WED    THU

SANGAMON RIVER
 MONTICELLO        13  10.4 MON 8 AM    11.7   12.2   12.2

$$
GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
548 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

08Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO...WHILE A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS E/SE FROM
THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
50S/60S TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEENS/20S TO THE
NORTH. ALOFT...CLOSED LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND
BEGIN LIFTING E/NE TOWARD ILLINOIS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD...EVENTUALLY REACHING CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF STRONG FORCING
DEVELOPING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT LATER THIS MORNING...RESULTING
IN A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. SHOWERS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TOWARD MIDDAY...THEN WILL SPREAD FURTHER E/NE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH BEST LIFT/MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE W/SW EARLY IN
THE DAY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON
EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS NOTED
ON THE NAM-WRF AND 4KM WRF-NMM...HAVE HIT POPS HARDEST ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE
KILX CWA TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER AROUND GALESBURG...BUT WILL SOAR TO AROUND
60 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-70.

HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE REGION. COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL AID IN SYNOPTIC
LIFT...AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET RACING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT LOWER-LEVELS...A STRONG 60KT 850MB JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY N/NE INTO EAST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. END RESULT WILL BE A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WITH
0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 500 TO 700 RANGE.
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL BISECT THE KILX CWA TONIGHT...PLACING
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM. GIVEN HEALTHY SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
VERY HIGH SHEAR...THINK STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
GOOD BET EAST OF I-55 BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED
MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE ACROSS THE E/SE ZONES TONIGHT. FURTHER
NORTHWEST INTO THE COLDER AIR...SEVERE CHANCES DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A THREAT AS WELL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER
WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AOA 2 INCHES...SO
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...GIVEN HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED SOIL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF FLASH-FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS
WHERE STORM DRAINS MAY BE CLOGGED WITH LEAVES AND DEBRIS. HAVE
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT...AND WILL ALLOW
DAY SHIFT TO MAKE THE FINAL ASSESSMENT ON WHETHER A FLOOD WATCH IS
NEEDED.

AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...COLDER/DRIER WEATHER
WILL ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON AS STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY PULLS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE ANOTHER DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTING ALL RAIN. CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE LATE WEEK SITUATION QUITE WELL...SO MADE NO
CHANGES BEYOND THURSDAY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 548 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID
TIME...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TO
START TODAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACTING TO TRAP THE
MOISTURE MORE STRONGLY THAN IT IS AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES. THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT AS
EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE
REGION...IT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF VALID
TIME. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A
VCTS MENTION IN THE TERMINALS DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
603 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-281200-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
603 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH SOME REMAINING OR CLIMBING
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-281200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
603 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH SOME REMAINING OR CLIMBING
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT.

BAK