Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Wilmington, OH

314 
WGUS71 KILN 160110
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
910 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

KYC023-161-201-160120-
/O.CAN.KILN.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-110716T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MASON KY-ROBERTSON KY-BRACKEN KY-
910 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BRACKEN...
ROBERTSON AND SOUTHERN MASON COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING
TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3846 8388 3848 8392 3847 8396 3849 8409
      3864 8406 3864 8373 3847 8381 3845 8385

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS IS NOSING UP INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST...BUT SO FAR ANY PCPN HAS REMAINED OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING WITHIN
THE TROF AXIS AND ARE NOW UP INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
PARTS OF OUR SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...WILL HANG ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY ACTIVITY
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO WILL TAPER BACK POPS
OVERNIGHT. WOULD ALSO EXPECT TO SEE CU DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTING UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SLOWLY SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. AS IT DOES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING
INSTABILITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
WEAK...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT MAY DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DEGREE OR TWO WARM UP EACH
OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE...DEEP ANTICYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ON
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...ENOUGH LIFT WILL OCCUR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT
ON A CONVECTIVE EVENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. IF CONVECTION IS STILL IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS IN THE EARLY WEEK WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
CONVECTION OTHER THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL POP UP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. WITH THE RIDGE CENTER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR THE ENTIRE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...IT APPEARS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS
PLACES OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW. A SFC INVERTED TROF OVER ERN KY WAS
HELPING TO FOCUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE. THIS
INVERTED TROF TO WORK A LITTLE TO THE N AND W THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TOWARD EXTREME SE OHIO BY 00Z AND THEN OVER THE TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. EXPECT SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS AND FEW TO
SCTD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTN. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW
CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG VSBY
RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED RESTRICTIONS TO
MVFR CAT EXCEPT FOR KLUK WHERE FAVORABLE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHUD
ALLOW VSBYS TO DROP INTO LIFR CAT. MARGINAL INSTBY DEVELOPS ON
SAT BUT CONVERGENCE FROM SFC TROF WEAKENS. LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT AFTN... AND THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TO VCSH AND CB IN THE 30 HR KCVG TAF SITE
AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-160915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
513 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WARMER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.