Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Wilmington, NC

791 
WGUS82 KILM 271603
FLSILM

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1203 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

NCC129-141-271715-
/O.CON.KILM.FA.W.0021.000000T0000Z-110827T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PENDER NC-NEW HANOVER NC-
1203 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT FOR NEW
HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...

AT 1201 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
SHOW HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE HEAVY 
RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO PENDER COUNTY...WHERE ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN COULD 
FALL BEFORE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT 
RAIN COULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION. 

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM IN THE WARNED AREA...
ESPECIALLY AT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ALONG DRAINAGE DITCHES...SMALL
CREEKS...AND LOW SPOTS ALONG ROADWAYS AND FIELDS. FLOODING MAY
PERSIST WELL AFTER THE RAINFALL COMES TO AND END. PEOPLE IN OR NEAR
LOCATIONS SUSECPTIBLE TO FLOODING SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROBLEM IN THE WARNED AREA...
ESPECIALLY AT POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS NEAR DRAINAGE DITCHES...SMALL
CREEKS...AND LOW SPOTS ALONG ROADWAYS AND FIELDS. FLOODING MAY
PERSIST WELL AFTER THE RAINFALL COMES TO AND END. PEOPLE IN OR NEAR
LOCATIONS SUSECPTIBLE TO FLOODING SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS SINCE YOUR VEHICLE MAY
STALL AND YOU MAY BECOME STRANDED. FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. YOUR CAR MAY STALL AND YOU MAY BECOME STRANDED. FIND
ALTERNATE ROUTES. AVOID FLOODED AREAS...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3438 7759 3425 7776 3416 7783 3405 7787
      3400 7792 3426 7795 3433 7802 3440 7823
      3442 7823 3446 7818 3449 7824 3456 7825
      3473 7811 3473 7768 3448 7757 3444 7754

$$

15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
715 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL PASS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETINS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
REGARDING TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE IRENE. IRENE WILL HAVE
MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. A POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:45 AM SATURDAY...NEAR TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE
IRENE. IRENE IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SE OF CAPE FEAR AND
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS.
WINDS INLAND OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION ARE REACHING THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE RANGE ONLY IN THE VIGOROUS RAIN BANDS THAT MOVE
ASHORE. COASTAL SITES ARE SEEING WINDS MORE CONSISTENTLY IN THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE RANGE. OTHERWISE WE ARE SEEING WINDS MAINLY
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALMOST CWA-WIDE EXCEPT FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN FRINGES. VERY LITTLE THUNDER IS EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH THE ODD
TORNADO REMAINS A THREAT. FOR INFORMATION ON WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IRENE...SEE LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

HAVE BASED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON LATEST GFS AS MODIFIED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO LIFT TO
THE NE WITH THE HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY CLEARING THE CWA TONIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL VARY WIDELY...FROM NEAR ZERO OVER OUR FAR WESTERN FRINGES TO
AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION. FLOODING
REMAINS A THREAT OVER AREAS SEEING HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO WILL
ALLOW PRESENT FLOOD WATCH TO RIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE GONE WITH GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS WERE
ALL VERY CLOSE. THIS WILL GIVE US LOWEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN
THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE THE HURRICANE WILL LINGER THE LONGEST
AND WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES TO
LOWER 90S FAR WEST. LOWS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:45 AM SATURDAY...HURRICANE IRENE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THIS TIME AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION TO
A MINIMUM ON SUNDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL
INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAYS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH WEST WINDS ON SUNDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL BE LOWER 90S WITH A SOUTHWEST WINDS. CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BUT WITH ABUNDANT
RAINFALL EXPECT DEWPOINTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE HIGHER SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
60S ON NEXT MODEL RAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...IRENE MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF MOREHEAD CITY.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING OVER 50 KTS AT ILM...LESSER
AMOUNTS AT THE MYRTLES AND INLAND TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL BOUNCE
AROUND...BUT WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS IRENE WEAKENS A BIT AND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP BELOW 20 KTS...BUT ILM COULD STILL
EXPERIENCE GUSTS TO 25 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 00Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2:45 AM SATURDAY...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NEAR TERM.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE. IRENE IS NOW APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SE OF
CAPE FEAR AND APPEARS TO BE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
OUTER BANKS. LATEST COASTAL AND BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 14
FT AT 41110 TO 18 FT AT 41013. THESE SAME OBS SHOW WINDS MAINLY IN
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE RANGE.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE STARTING LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE STORM LIFTS TO THE NE. CONDITIONS SHOULD HAVE
IMPROVED ENOUGH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY SO THAT NOT EVEN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. SEE LATEST WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR
THE LATEST ON HURRICANE IRENE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:45 AM SATURDAY...SEAS WILL BE SETTLING WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW AS HURRICANE IRENE HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO BACK FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY...BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM NEW
ENGLAND...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ053>056.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SCZ053>056.

NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ096-099-
     105>110.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ096-099.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR NCZ105>110.

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ254-256.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

AMZ250-252-280915-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ105-107-109-280915-
INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ096-099-SCZ053-055-280915-
BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-280915-
ROBESON-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-280915-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HURRICANE WARNING.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HURRICANE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ054-056-280915-
COASTAL HORRY-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ254-256-280915-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
511 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.