Wind Advisory 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

534 
WWUS72 KGSP 271619
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1119 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-272300-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-111227T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.LW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-111227T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
1119 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
  BOATS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-280030-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-111228T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1119 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING...WEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL THE NORTH
  CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GUSTY
  ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. 
  ALSO...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-272300-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-111227T2300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE
1119 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL 
  BOATS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

649 
WWUS72 KGSP 272006
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY. 

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-280415-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-111228T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
306 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING...WIND INCREASING THIS EVENING AND REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS
  THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. 
  ALSO...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-272300-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-111227T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
306 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROUGH CHOP ON AREA LAKES MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL 
  BOATS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

274 
WWUS72 KGSP 272258
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

.WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-280000-
/O.EXP.KGSP.LW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-111227T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
558 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SO THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THERE.

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-281100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-111228T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
558 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING...WINDS REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. 
  ALSO...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

028 
WWUS72 KGSP 280345
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WINDY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...


NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-281100-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-111228T1100Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1045 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TIMING...WINDS REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES.
  ALSO...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS
  WITH LIGHT SNOW OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON HIGHER
  PASSES AND RIDGES NEAR THE TENESSEE BORDER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACH PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BACK IN CONTROL FROM WEDNESDAY
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...A BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH IT/S OVERALL ORIENTATION
MATCHES WELL WITH THE GRIDS. LAPS SFC WET BULBS SHOW A FEW AREAS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS OVER THE MTNS...BUT THERE CONFINED MAINLY TO HIGH
ELEVATIONS. THE WEATHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE OF A CONCERN THIS MORNING AS A SSE ORIENTED LLVL JET MAY CAUSE
A FEW PROBLEMS OVER THE MTNS BOTH ALONG THE TN LINE AS A MOUNTAIN
WAVE FORMS AND ALONG THE SE SLOPES WHICH WILL BE EXPOSED TO THE
STRONGEST SLY WINDS. I/LL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
THE ROUTINE PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TEMPS HAVE COOLED MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E CWA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
THINNER. DEW POINTS ARE COMING UP FASTER IN THE SSW CWA AS WELL AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES. LGT 88D RETURNS MOVG IN FROM THE SW HAVE A LOT OF
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL TIMING OF
ADVANCING PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS GOOD. USED THESE TRENDS AND LATEST
GUIDANCE TO ADJUST TEMP/DP/RH AND SKY COVER FOR THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER N TX THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT OUT AND PHASE WITH A DIGGING NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FAIRLY STRONG AND CLASSIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY TOPPING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS EVENING.
HAVE FINE TUNED THE PRECIP CHANCES A BIT TO DELAY THE ONSET TIME
BASED ON RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS...SO A GOOD BIT OF THE EVENING
SHOULD BE DRY. THINGS WILL GO DOWNHILL RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER
FORCING...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND DEEP MOISTURE INCREASE
RAPIDLY FROM THE SW AFTER ABOUT 03Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO BREAK OUT FROM
SW TO NE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT IT MIGHT BE
PRECIPITATING ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE. THE FIRST
ISSUE IS PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE MTNS. THE 12Z RUNS TRENDED A BIT
WARMER OVERNIGHT...SO THERE SEEMS TO BE LESS OF A POSSIBILITY OF
TRAPPED COLD AIR IN THE VALLEYS. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS...ABOVE
5000 FEET...COULD HAVE A PERIOD WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SLEET. THE AREA IS TOO SMALL FOR AN
ADVISORY...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER DEVELOPMENTS.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS WIND...AS BOTH MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET TRANSLATING E ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING.
TYPICALLY IN WARM ADVECTION FLOWS AHEAD OF A LOW...THIS DOES NOT
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS OVER THE NC MTNS...SO AN ADVISORY WILL
NOT BE ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING.
THE MODELS FAIL TO SHOW ANY BUOYANCY...SO THUNDER HAS BEEN KEPT OUT
OF THE FCST. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD. THE MODELS ALL SHOW A DRY
SLOT MOVING IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...SO PRECIP SHOULD
END ABRUPTLY FROM THE SW FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT ON THE TN BORDER AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE STARTS
MOVING UP THE W SLOPES AS THE WIND VEERS TO W AND NW. COLDER AIR
SHOULD START CHANGING THE PRECIP TO SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 3500 FEET OR
SO AFTER 21Z. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT BE TRICKY IF WE CLEAR OUT EARLY
ENOUGH OVER NE GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE...ALLOWING SOME TEMP
REBOUND WITH SUN COMING OUT. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMP A FEW DEGREES
THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SHEARING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...
ESSENTIALLY COMPLETING THE PROCESS OF PHASING THE TWO STREAMS. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE (LIKELY ENHANCED BY
THE WAVE ITSELF) AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A STRONG W/NW FLOW ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FALLING RAPIDLY WITHIN STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS (WITH RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED IN BELOW 2500 FEET
OR SO). ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME TUE EVENING IN WHICH
THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WILL BE JUXTAPOSED OVER THE MOIST
LAYER...THIS OCCURRENCE WILL BE BRIEF. ALSO...THE BACKED NATURE OF
THE FLOW (WNW AS OPPOSED TO NW) WILL REDUCE THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT
DURING THE TIME OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THEREFORE...THIS SHOULDNT BE A PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCER...BUT AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT (1-4 INCHES) COULD BE SEEN...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER.

WIND IS ALSO A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...AS MODEL
CONSENSUS DEPICTS 50-55 KT OF H8 FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUILDING IN BEHIND RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE A
SLAM DUNK TUESDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST FROM THE BALSAMS/FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY NORTH. HOWEVER...A HIGH WIND EVENT IS NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN THESE AREAS. IN FACT...WITH THE GROUND BEING VERY MOIST
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...IT MAY NOT TAKE HIGH WIND CRITERIA TO FELL
TREES. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL HOLD
OFF ON A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WILL CERTAINLY MENTION THE
WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TRANQUIL...AS A DEEP W AND
NW FLOW MAINTAINS DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 2 PM EST MONDAY...AN EASTERN UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
DEAMPLIFY ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO
SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS...
WITH RIDGES ON EACH COAST...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ZONAL. HPC
PREFERRED A BLEND...ALLOWING FOR MORE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION TO TAKE
PLACE EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ON FRIDAY OUR AREA IS BETWEEN A DEPARTING FRONT OFF THE COAST...AND
AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE PLAINS. THE SECOND FRONT CROSSES OUR
AREA EARLY SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE. A THIRD FRONT REACHES
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT HAS SOME MODEST MOISTURE TO WORK...AND VERY SMALL POPS
WILL BE CARRIED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE NC FOOTHILLS. POST FRONTAL NW FLOW SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
TIME...AN NO QPF OR SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE FORECAST WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE THIRD
FRONT PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE ESE. A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 9 AND 11 UTC. CIGS WILL FALL QUICKLY AS THE RAIN
MOVES IN WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 12 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT THE CLOUDS AND TURNING
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 32 KTS...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING AS WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE JUST A LITTLE WAYS OF THE SFC.

AND ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...WITH PCPN STARTING A LITTLE LATER AT
KHKY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AT THE
UPSTATE SITES AND SE AT KAVL. ONCE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS
LIFTING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MIXING
DEEPENS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 30 KTS AT MANY AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM/RB
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
423 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-272130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
423 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-272130-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
423 PM EST MON DEC 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FREEZING IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET OR SO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
FROM THE BALSAMS AND FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE VERY WET FROM RECENT
RAINFALL...SOME STRONGER GUSTS COULD TAKE DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES. IT IS LIKELY THAT A WIND ADVISORY...OR POSSIBLY A HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
FLOWING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE