Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

265 
WGUS73 KGRR 111612
FFSGRR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1212 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC085-112100-
/O.CON.KGRR.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110511T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAKE MI-
1212 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

3.5 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THE EARLIER STORMS ARE LIKELY 
CAUSING RAPID RISES ON LOCAL STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER ON ROADS 
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE IRONS AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO 
MOVE IN ACROSS THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS COULD DROP 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH IN A SHORT TIME.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING 
TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
IRONS...LUTHER...LITTLE MANISTEE AND PEACOCK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
BIG SABLE RIVER...LITTLE MANISTEE RIVER...MUCKWA CREEK...
STRONACH CREEK...NEWKIRK TWP...MEADE TWP...PEACOCK TWP...AND EDEN 
TWP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 8557 4398 8556 4398 8604 4417 8604

$$

NJJ

753 
WGUS73 KGRR 111825
FFSGRR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
225 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC085-112100-
/O.CON.KGRR.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110511T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAKE MI-
225 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS THAT NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED YET. IT 
IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLOODING MAY BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE 
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY NEAR THE IRONS AREA. A 
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS AND RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF LAKE COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDES...
IRONS AND STRONACH CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 4417 8557 4398 8556 4398 8604 4417 8604

$$

NJJ

037 
WGUS73 KGRR 112026
FFSGRR

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
426 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIC085-112040-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110511T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAKE MI-
426 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAW ENFORCEMENT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING 
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4417 8557 4398 8556 4398 8604 4417 8604

$$

NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...MESOSCALE UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...(400 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011)
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
THIS WEEKEND WITH RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A
COOLING TREND TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1030 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011)
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

MESOSCALE UPDATE...CLUSTER OF TSTMS SLIDING SSE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE CONTAINS SOME HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RADAR HAS SUGGESTED
THE POSSIBILITY OF SVR CRITERIA SIZE HAIL (ONE INCH DIAMETER)... BUT
HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF SVR HAIL.

THE RIDGE IS STILL AMPLIFYING OVERHEAD AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
PROGGED TO WARM WHICH SUGGESTS THESE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
HOWEVER IF THE STORMS BECOME SFC BASED LATER TODAY... A NEW SVR WX
THREAT MAY DEVELOP. THE GRIDS/ZFP WERE AMENDED EARLIER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INCOMING MCS.

RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT. 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM
SIM Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WHICH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WI/IL THIS AFTN WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS LWR MI OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM FRONT NEAR OUR AREA WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO A FEW LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS PARTICULARLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTN THRU THE EVENING.

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
(PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING) AS INSTABILITY RAMPS BACK UP
WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEW PTS INTO
THE LOWER 60S. SB CAPES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE. WIND FIELDS/SHEAR VALUES THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK VERY WEAK THOUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN IN THE FCST INTO FRIDAY AND IT WON/T BE QUITE AS WARM
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011)
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT.  COMPLICATED AND UNUSUAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.  ONE UPPER LOW DOWN IN ARKANSAS TRIES TO
LIFT NORTH TOWARD LOWER MI AS A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER IN NEBRASKA
DIVES TOWARD THE GULF.  GIVEN THE FALLING HEIGHTS HERE IN LOWER
MI...ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE AROUND...SUSPECT AN EXPANDING AREA
OF RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL 12Z SAT.  I INCREASED THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST
FLOW.  I LOWERED TEMPS ON SAT FOR THIS REASON.  I SUSPECT WITH 850
MB WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION SAT INTO SUN SHOWN BY
THE ECMWF...THAT IT WILL END UP BLUSTERY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(822 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE RISK FOR
STORMS TODAY.   THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE...BUT A WEAK CAP WILL BE PRESENT.  WITH SOME LIFT
ARRIVING WE MAY SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FEATURE THEM IN THE
TAFS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS CLOSELY THROUGH THE
DAY.   PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS TODAY...BUT OVERNIGHT WE
COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROPPING IN SOME LIGHT FOG.

&&

.MARINE...(400 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011)
VISIBILITY ISSUES RELATED TO FOG AND HAZE WILL LIKELY BECOME AN
ISSUE LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011)
ONLY ONE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS. COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:    LAURENS
SHORT TERM:  LAURENS/MEADE
LONG TERM:   MJS
AVIATION:    MJS
MARINE:      LAURENS
HYDROLOGY:   LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121000-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AT 10 AM THE STORMS WERE
ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO BALDWIN TO HART. AT 11 AM
THE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY HARRISON TO NEWAYGO TO MUSKEGON.

IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER... AT NOON THEY SHOULD BE FROM ALMA TO
GRAND RAPIDS TO HOLLAND... AND AT 1 PM FROM LANSING TO HASTINGS TO
SOUTH HAVEN. THE STORMS WOULD REACH THE I-94 CORRIDOR AT AROUND 2 PM
AT THE CURRENT SPEED.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT IS EAST AT 15
MPH BUT THE ENTIRE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY RISKS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS DESIRED BUT NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

LMZ844>849-121000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AT 10 AM THE STORMS WERE
AROUND PENTWATER AND HART. AT 11 AM THE STORMS SHOULD BE NEAR
MUSKEGON. IF THE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER... AT NOON THEY SHOULD BE
AROUND HOLLAND... AND AT 1 PM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN.

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT IS EAST AT 15
MPH BUT THE ENTIRE CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
20 MPH.

AREAS OF FOG COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MEADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
914 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

MIZ037-111415-
MASON-
914 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 909 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST MASON COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4419 8637 4418 8637 4417 8607 4404 8645
      4409 8648 4412 8644 4417 8640 4418 8637
      4419 8639 4420 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 244DEG 21KT 4417 8638

93

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
951 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     HAIL             1 SSW FREESOIL          44.09N 86.22W
05/11/2011  M0.70 INCH       MASON              MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY DEPUTY PASSED ALONG TO EM THE HAIL REPORT. VERY
            HEAVY RAIN ALSO OCCURING.

&&

GWETZEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1024 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             5 SE LUDINGTON          43.90N 86.38W
05/11/2011  M0.25 INCH       MASON              MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR CHAUVEZ AND BRYE ROADS.
            STARTED TO ACCUMULATE IN SMALL AMOUNTS.

&&

GWETZEL