Red Flag Warning 40, NWS Goodland, KS

198 
WWUS83 KGLD 102335
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MST THU NOV 10 2011


COZ252>254-KSZ001-013-014-027-028-110045-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0040.000000T0000Z-111111T0100Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-
LOGAN-
435 PM MST THU NOV 10 2011 /535 PM CST THU NOV 10 2011/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...013...014...027...028...
252...253 AND 254...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MST THU NOV 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
224 AM MST THU NOV 10 2011

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH CWA ON PERIPHERY OF LARGE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...1031MB RIDGE WAS CENTERED
OVER THE CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPS AND HUMIDITY VALUES
THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON SATURDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE OR NEUTRAL FORCING. A WEAK VORTICITY MAX IS STILL EXPECTED
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT WITH VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RESPONSE TO PASSING TROUGH. H5
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NW...BUT WITH PREVAILING FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OUT OF THE
WNW AND AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY STABLE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
THINK CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...FORCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DECENT SPREAD BETWEEN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS
LOW AT THIS POINT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF FRONT WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR TWO...BUT WITH LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION THREAT. BIGGER STORY MAY BE PERIOD OF STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AND RESULTING TEMP/FIRE WX CONCERNS AHEAD OF FRONT. ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF TROUGH REMAINS...LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHERE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...POTENTIALLY
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS.

JRM

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC
ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS APART ON TIMING WITH THE EC BEING THE SLOWER
SOLUTION. BROAD-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MEAGER AT BEST. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. PRIOR EC
SOLUTION DEPICTED A STRONG TROUGH PASSING ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE 00Z EC
RUN HAS TRENDED BACK TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION SO NO PLANS TO DEVIATE
FROM GOING TEMP FORECAST.

FOLTZ
&&

.AVIATION...
1040 AM MST THU NOV 10 2011

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH A MEAN
RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER ABOUT 14Z AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

LOCKHART
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
224 AM MST THU NOV 10 2011

AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT AN APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
326 AM MST THU NOV 10 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
326 AM MST THU NOV 10 2011 /426 AM CST THU NOV 10 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JRM