Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011/
.TONIGHT UPDATED...
WILL DROP MENTION OF THUNDERDTORMS FOR MOST OF CWA...EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST SECTION WHERE ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS CHC AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION. IT MAY SEEM HOT AND STAGNANT ACROSS THE CONUS BUT
REVIEW OF THE H5 MODEL ANALYSES INDICATES OTHERWISE. WESTERLIES
FAIRLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...FLOW
BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH LARGE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND AND UPPER RIDGE RETREATS TO SRN PLAINS...SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF WESTERLIES DIP INTO TN AND N GA. AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS
ACTUALLY POOR...LEANED MORE TOWARD SREF AND NAM...THE LATER OF
WHICH HAS DONE WELL WITH POPS YESTERDAY AND SOMEWHAT TODAY. GFS
POPS STILL WOEFULLY LOW BUT RISE A LITTLE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT AND WESTERLIES DIPPING INTO THE STATE...
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT. STORMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SAT AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE SUN AS WELL AS WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK BOUNDARY MAY HELP FOCUS CONVECTION
AND INCREASE STORM LONGEVITY AND POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SVR STORMS.
PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS UPPER TROUGH INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST OFF
THE EAST COAST...NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WILL HELP PUSH SFC
SOUTH. WE WILL KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED...BUT WE MAY ACTUALLY GET
OUR HIGH TEMPS OUT OF THE 90S NEXT WEEK BEGINNING TUES.
UNFORTUNATELY...12Z GFS BUILDS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
EAST INTO THE SOUTH WHILE 12Z ECMWF SUPPRESSES RIDGE. IM VOTING
FOR THE ECMWF...BUT THAT DOESNT COUNT FOR MUCH. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO PREV EXTENDED FCST.

BDG/SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
GENERALLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/CB'S EXPECTED TO DIE EARLY THIS
EVENING MAYBE A LITTLE LONGER FOR CENTRAL GA. VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE AND FOG LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM. WIND DIRECTION FAVORING
THE EAST SIDE AT ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CLOUD CONDITIONS AND WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING VSBYS.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  93  65  96 /  30  30  20  30
ATLANTA         70  92  72  93 /  30  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     63  87  62  87 /  30  40  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    64  93  64  94 /  30  30  20  30
COLUMBUS        69  93  70  95 /  20  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     69  92  69  93 /  30  30  20  30
MACON           67  94  66  95 /  20  10  10  20
ROME            66  93  66  93 /  30  30  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  64  93  65  94 /  30  40  20  30
VIDALIA         67  93  70  95 /   5   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1035 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1035 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
AT UPPER LEVELS CONTINUED ACROSS GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE TO GIVE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

GAZ102-103-110300-
1036 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER AND STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

AT 1031 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER DUMAS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8459 3192 8484 3209 8493 3214 8453
      3213 8452 3213 8444 3194 8446 3191 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 083DEG 10KT 3201 8448

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1059 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

GAZ053-066-067-078-110330-
1059 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN TROUP...MERIWETHER...EXTREME SOUTHERN COWETA AND HARRIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1130 PM EDT...

AT 1057 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3321 8499 3323 8494 3330 8495 3328 8467
      3320 8450 3266 8499 3261 8504 3261 8508
      3265 8511 3267 8510 3269 8512 3273 8512
      3275 8515 3278 8513 3282 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 070DEG 9KT 3322 8465