Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS El Paso, TX

647 
WGUS74 KEPZ 192053
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
253 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NMC017-051-192107-
/O.EXP.KEPZ.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110719T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT NM-SIERRA NM-
253 PM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL SIERRA
AND NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300 PM
MDT...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. ARROYOS OR STREAMS IN THE 
WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE 
FLOOD THREAT.

BE AWARE OF DEBRIS SCATTERED ACROSS ROADWAYS AT WASHES AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. IF YOU HAVE OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3321 10779 3291 10766 3283 10792 3320 10810

$$

PARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LOWLAND AND
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 100 FOR THE LOWLAND DESERTS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD PLUME OF MOISTURE STRADDLING
THE ARIZONA-NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THIS PLUME IS BEING PULLED UP
BY A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND A TROUGH
POSITIONED ON THE WEST COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE TO THE EAST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE WARM SIDE AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING AFFECTS OF THE HIGH
ALOFT. A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 15
MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PART OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND AND FLATTEN THE HIGH. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL SOME
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE STATE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY THE
INCREASED MOISTURE...PLUS A LITTLE HELP FROM AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS WILL HOVER AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A
MODERATE RAIN FALL POTENTIAL FROM STORMS.

FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH A 130
PERCENT OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST PART
OF THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WILL ALSO HELP STREAM SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE
ISOLATED STORMS AT OTHER TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z-20/12Z...
VFR CONDS XPCTD. ISOLD -TSRA BKN060-080 EXPECTED WEST OF A KDMN-
KSVC LINE AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AFT 18Z. ISOLD -TSRA FOR
ALL AREAS AFT 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY 120 AT 10-15KTS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE DISCUSSION...
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK FOR ALL AREAS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE WEEK BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 15 PERCENT WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING STARTING TUESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 10 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 99  78 100  78 101 /  10  20  10  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        95  74  96  75  97 /  10  20  10  20  20
LAS CRUCES              99  76 100  76 101 /  10  20  10  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              97  74  98  75  98 /  20  20  20  20  30
CLOUDCROFT              75  53  76  53  76 /  20  20  30  20  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   97  74  97  75  98 /  10  20  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             89  64  88  64  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
DEMING                  98  75  97  76  99 /  10  20  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               97  74  97  75  97 /  20  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

04/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1117 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-201715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1117 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS EACH EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AFTER FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.