Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 9, NWS Kansas City, MO

February 18, 2011Carroll County, Chariton County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Feb 18, 2011, 9:06 AM CST for Carroll County, Chariton County, Missouri. It took effect at Feb 19, 2011, 4:30 PM CST. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 18, 2011, 9:06 AM CST (15:06 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 19, 2011, 4:30 PM CST
Expired
Feb 20, 2011, 5:17 AM CST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Grand River near Brunswick (BRNM7).

Action stage
14 ft
Minor stage
19 ft
Moderate stage
27 ft
Major stage
33 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

068 
WGUS43 KEAX 181506
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED          
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
906 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAM...

  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK

AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC033-041-191506-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0009.110219T1200Z-110222T0651Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.110219T1200Z.110220T1200Z.110221T0651Z.UU/
906 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL MO HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:44 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 19.6 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19   17.0   FRI 09 AM   19.6 SUNDAY MORNING

$$
7 follow-up statements
407 
WGUS83 KEAX 181544
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR CHILLICOTHE 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
  PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY 
  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BUCHANAN...CARROLL...
CHARITON...COOPER...LINN...LIVINGSTON...SALINE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-191544-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T2212Z/
/BLVM7.1.SM.110216T1842Z.110218T0630Z.110220T2212Z.NO/
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  8:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   27.7   FRI 09 AM   27.7 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC115-117-191543-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110221T0100Z/
/CHZM7.1.SM.110217T2253Z.110218T1215Z.110220T0100Z.NO/
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR CHILLICOTHE.
* AT  8:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 26.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 26.5 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY EVENING.
* AT 24.0 FEET...LOW-LYING CROPLAND FLOODS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  CHILLICOTHE     24   26.3   FRI 09 AM   26.5 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-191543-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110222T0124Z/
/SNZM7.2.SM.110217T1524Z.110219T0000Z.110221T0124Z.NO/
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  8:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.8 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 28.0 FEET...RURAL ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   32.5   FRI 09 AM   32.8 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-041-191543-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0009.110219T1200Z-110222T0651Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.110219T1200Z.110220T1200Z.110221T0651Z.UU/
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:44 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 19.6 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19   17.0   FRI 09 AM   19.6 SUNDAY MORNING

$$

MOC021-191543-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110220T0900Z/
/AGYM7.1.SM.110218T0133Z.110219T0000Z.110219T0900Z.NO/
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY.
* AT  8:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.0 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT 20.0 FEET...LOW-LYING AREAS EAST OF AGENCY BEGIN TO FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  AGENCY          20   20.5   FRI 08 AM   21.0 THIS EVENING

$$

MOC033-191543-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110220T0100Z/
/CAXM7.1.SM.110217T2137Z.110218T1345Z.110219T0100Z.UU/
944 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* AT  9:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  THIS EVENING.
* AT 16.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING UNDEVELOPED AREAS ALONG THE 
  CREEK BEGINS.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   16.9   FRI 09 AM   16.9 THIS AFTERNOON

$$
629 
WGUS83 KEAX 190414
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR CHILLICOTHE
  PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY
  WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...BUCHANAN...CARROLL...
LINN...LIVINGSTON

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK 
  PLATTE RIVER AT SHARPS STATION 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON...
LINN...LIVINGSTON...PLATTE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...COOPER...SALINE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-200414-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T2212Z/
/BLVM7.1.SM.110216T1842Z.110219T0330Z.110220T2212Z.NO/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  9:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   27.9   FRI 10 PM   27.9 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC115-117-190444-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-110221T0100Z/
/CHZM7.1.SM.110217T2253Z.110218T1215Z.110219T0257Z.NO/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR CHILLICOTHE.
* AT  9:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  8:57 PM FRIDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 17.6 FEET BY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  CHILLICOTHE     24   23.8   FRI 10 PM   23.5 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-200413-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110221T1355Z/
/SNZM7.2.SM.110217T1524Z.110219T0330Z.110220T1355Z.NO/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  9:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.6 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 28.0 FEET...RURAL ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   32.6   FRI 10 PM   32.6 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-200413-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0009.110219T2230Z-110222T0651Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.110219T2230Z.110220T1200Z.110221T0651Z.UU/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:12 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.6 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19   17.4   FRI 06 PM   19.6 SUNDAY MORNING

$$

MOC021-190444-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-110220T0900Z/
/AGYM7.1.SM.110218T0133Z.110218T1645Z.110218T2345Z.NO/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR AGENCY.
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  5:45 PM FRIDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 14.4 FEET BY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  AGENCY          20   19.3   FRI 09 PM   19.0 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC165-200413-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0010.110219T0900Z-110220T1800Z/
/SSTM7.1.ER.110219T0900Z.110219T1200Z.110219T1800Z.NO/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER AT SHARPS STATION.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 26.1 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 26.0 FEET...LOW-LYING RURAL LAND ALONG THE RIVER BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  SHARPS STATION  26   25.7   FRI 09 PM   26.1 SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-190444-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110220T0100Z/
/CAXM7.1.SM.110217T2137Z.110218T1345Z.110218T2137Z.UU/
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WAKENDA CREEK AT CARROLLTON.
* AT 10:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:37 PM FRIDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 8.4 FEET BY SUNDAY 
  MORNING.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

WAKENDA CREEK
  CARROLLTON      16   13.9   FRI 10 PM   14.0 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$
934 
WGUS83 KEAX 190432
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
1032 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK 
  PLATTE RIVER AT SHARPS STATION 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON...
COOPER...LINN...LIVINGSTON...PLATTE...SALINE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-200432-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T2212Z/
/BLVM7.1.SM.110216T1842Z.110219T0330Z.110220T2212Z.NO/
1032 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  9:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 27.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   27.9   FRI 10 PM   27.9 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-200431-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110221T1355Z/
/SNZM7.2.SM.110217T1524Z.110219T0330Z.110220T1355Z.NO/
1032 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  9:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.6 FEET BY 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 28.0 FEET...RURAL ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   32.6   FRI 10 PM   32.6 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-200431-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0009.110219T2230Z-110222T0651Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.110219T2230Z.110220T1200Z.110221T0651Z.UU/
1032 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:12 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.6 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19   17.4   FRI 06 PM   19.6 SUNDAY MORNING

$$

MOC165-200431-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0010.110219T0900Z-110220T1800Z/
/SSTM7.1.ER.110219T0900Z.110219T1200Z.110219T1800Z.NO/
1032 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER AT SHARPS STATION.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT  9:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 26.1 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 26.0 FEET...LOW-LYING RURAL LAND ALONG THE RIVER BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  SHARPS STATION  26   25.7   FRI 09 PM   26.1 SATURDAY MORNING

$$
413 
WGUS83 KEAX 190949
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
349 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK 
  PLATTE RIVER AT SHARPS STATION 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON...
COOPER...LINN...LIVINGSTON...PLATTE...SALINE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-200949-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110221T2212Z/
/BLVM7.1.SM.110216T1842Z.110219T0615Z.110220T2212Z.NO/
349 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  2:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   28.0   SAT 03 AM   27.8 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-200948-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110221T1355Z/
/SNZM7.2.SM.110217T1524Z.110219T0330Z.110220T1355Z.NO/
349 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  2:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 32.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 32.4 FEET BY THIS
  MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 28.0 FEET...RURAL ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   32.4   SAT 03 AM   32.4 THIS MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-200948-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0009.110219T2230Z-110222T0651Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.110219T2230Z.110220T1200Z.110221T0651Z.UU/
349 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* AT  6:12 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.6 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19   17.4   FRI 06 PM   19.6 SUNDAY MORNING

$$

MOC165-200948-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-110220T1800Z/
/SSTM7.1.ER.110219T1128Z.110219T1200Z.110219T1800Z.NO/
349 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PLATTE RIVER AT SHARPS STATION.
* AT  3:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 26.1 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 26.0 FEET...LOW-LYING RURAL LAND ALONG THE RIVER BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

PLATTE RIVER
  SHARPS STATION  26   25.6   SAT 03 AM   26.1 THIS MORNING

$$
586 
WGUS83 KEAX 191548
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
948 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON...
COOPER...LINN...LIVINGSTON...SALINE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAM...

  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-201548-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110222T0415Z/
/BLVM7.1.SM.110216T1842Z.110219T1445Z.110221T0415Z.NO/
948 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  8:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   28.0   SAT 09 AM   27.9 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-201547-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110221T0845Z/
/SNZM7.2.SM.110217T1524Z.110219T0330Z.110220T0845Z.NO/
948 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  8:45 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 31.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 28.0 FEET...RURAL ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   31.9   SAT 09 AM   31.5 THIS AFTERNOON

$$

MOC033-041-201547-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0009.110219T2230Z-110222T0651Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.110219T2230Z.110220T1200Z.110221T0651Z.UU/
948 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* NO OBSERVED STAGE AVAILABLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 19.6 
  FEET SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19     N/A              19.6 SUNDAY MORNING

$$
732 
WGUS83 KEAX 200339
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
939 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK 
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON...
COOPER...LINN...LIVINGSTON...SALINE


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC053-195-210339-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110222T2000Z/
/BLVM7.1.SM.110216T1842Z.110219T1930Z.110221T2000Z.NO/
939 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BLUE LICK.
* AT  8:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 28.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 24.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 24.0 FEET...CROPLAND AND PASTURES ALONG THE RIVER FLOOD.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

BLACKWATER RIVER
  BLUE LICK       24   28.0   SAT 09 PM   27.0 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-115-117-210338-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110221T0813Z/
/SNZM7.2.SM.110217T1524Z.110219T0330Z.110220T0813Z.NO/
939 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR SUMNER.
* AT  8:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 26.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 28.0 FEET...RURAL ROADS ARE UNDER WATER.
* AT 26.0 FEET...RURAL LAND ADJACENT TO THE RIVER IS FLOODED.
* AT 23.0 FEET...BOTTOMLAND 1 TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE GAGE BEGINS TO 
  FLOOD.


&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  SUMNER          26   30.1   SAT 09 PM   27.6 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

$$

MOC033-041-210338-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110221T1047Z/
/BRNM7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.110220T0600Z.110220T1047Z.UU/
939 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO HAVE A MAXIMUM VALUE OF 19.4 
  FEET EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19                      19.4 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

$$
786 
WGUS83 KEAX 201117
FLSEAX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 
517 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011
   

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...
 
  GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK
 
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD 
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY 
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL 
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.  THIS PRODUCT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WEATHER
AND STREAM INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KC/.

&&

MOC033-041-201147-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-110221T1047Z/
/BRNM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
517 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE GRAND RIVER NEAR BRUNSWICK.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS FORECAST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A MAXIMUM 
  VALUE OF 18.9 FEET THIS MORNING.
* AT 19.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS OCCURS ALONG THE WEST 
  BANK OF THE GRAND RIVER NEAR THE U.S. HIGHWAY 24 BRIDGE ABOUT 1 
  MILE WEST OF BRUNSWICK.

&& 
                       LATEST                   
LOCATION          FS   STAGE  DAY/TIME    FORECAST

GRAND RIVER
  BRUNSWICK       19                      18.9 THIS MORNING

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Feb 18, 5:59 AM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 18, 5:59 AM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RECORD BREAKING WARM TEMPERATURES A MODEST
COOL DOWN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. LIMITED MIXING OF A MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S THOUGH
SOME AREAS IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY PUSH 60 OR SO. BY
SATURDAY ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES SATURATING THE MID LEVELS
INITIALLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER PUSHING
INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMN BEGIN TO SATURATE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
IOWA SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARM ADVECTION FROM SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INCREASE AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM AIR ALOFT TO SURGE INTO THE
MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IF DEEPER MIX OCCURS SOME AREAS
MAY AGAIN SEE 70+ DEGREE READINGS. CONVERSELY IF THE WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION LEADS TO THICKER CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM AS
MUCH.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES IT SURGES A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION USHERING A RETURN OF WINTER. MODEL
DIFFERENCES REALLY START TO DEGRADE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THIS POINT
AS THE GFS AND GEM ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION
ON IT ONCE IT IS PASSED OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER...LAGGING THE FRONT BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AT ABOUT
THE SAME TIME AS THE COLD AIR IS SURGING BEHIND IT. WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THINK THE GFS AND THE GEM MAY BE DEPICTING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETTER. NONE-THE-LESS...HAVE A HARD TIME DISCOUNTING THE
ECMWF COMPLETELY. SO...HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR OUR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES AND AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
TRANSITION THIS PRECIPITATION INTO A WINTRY MIX BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO
THE SOUTH A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. CONSENSUS MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND OVER PREVIOUS
FORECASTS AND SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST BEYOND A FEW DAYS
DECIDED TO TEMPER THOSE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT UNTIL
BETTER CONTINUITY IS SEEN IN THE MODELS.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL
INSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 18, 4:57 AM CST, 4 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
457 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
457 AM CST FRI FEB 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS WARM MOIST
AIR PUSHES BACK NORTH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA...THOUGH THE THREAT FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.

THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SINKING
SOUTH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS COLDER
AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CDB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 18, 2:38 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningEAXPlatte17 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.