Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

994 
WGUS73 KEAX 241444
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

MOC087-241457-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110624T1830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOLT MO-
944 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LEVEE FAILURE AND OVERTOPPING THAT 
WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

WATER FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER HAS NOW COVERED MUCH OF FAR WESTERN 
HOLT COUNTY...WITH GRADUAL RISES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THIS FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING 
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TRAVEL ON MANY STATE AND LOCAL ROADWAYS 
WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 WILL BECOME IMPOSSIBLE...IF NOT ALREADY. 

LAT...LON 4004 9534 4004 9527 3998 9520 3995 9522
      3995 9525 3997 9527 3999 9530 4001 9531
      4003 9535

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO STEADILY DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MEANDERS
EASTWARD. ONGOING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A PARENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US AND SENDS
SEVERAL UPPER IMPULSES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

BY TONIGHT...THE FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS...ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS 40-45KT H85 JET NOSES INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT THE MORNING ACTIVITY FRIDAY TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS. EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AGAIN DEVELOPS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT.

CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG A SHARPENING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE LESS SUBSTANTIAL. ANY CONVECTION
WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS
AIDED BY STRENGTHENING 35-40KT LLJ.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL LIFT THE
WARM SECTOR NORTHWARD BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME BRINGING A RETURN TO THE
WARM TEMPERATURES.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO MIX OUT...AND THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY BY 01Z THIS EVENING.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ011.

KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1256 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BUTLER TO OSAWATOMIE LINE. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO SEDALIA LINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH FRIDAY.

DB