Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Des Moines, IA

884 
WWUS53 KDMX 291332
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
832 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

IAC007-051-135-179-291400-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110529T1400Z/
WAPELLO IA-MONROE IA-APPANOOSE IA-DAVIS IA-
832 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
DAVIS...NORTHEASTERN APPANOOSE...EASTERN MONROE AND WAPELLO COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 830 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ALBIA...OR 16 MILES WEST OF OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OTTUMWA...ELDON...BLAKESBURG...CHILLICOTHE...OTTUMWA AIRPORT...
  FLORIS AND AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 9218 4078 9287 4108 9287 4113 9257
      4117 9223 4117 9218 4116 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 254DEG 49KT 4095 9267
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

DONAVON

605 
WWUS53 KDMX 291352
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
852 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

IAC007-135-291401-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110529T1400Z/
MONROE IA-APPANOOSE IA-
852 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN APPANOOSE AND
EASTERN MONROE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4081 9218 4079 9263 4112 9263 4113 9257
      4117 9223 4117 9218 4116 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 254DEG 49KT 4102 9234

$$

IAC051-179-291400-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110529T1400Z/
WAPELLO IA-DAVIS IA-
852 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN DAVIS
AND WAPELLO COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
OTTUMWA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELDON AND AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 9218 4079 9263 4112 9263 4113 9257
      4117 9223 4117 9218 4116 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 254DEG 49KT 4102 9234
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DONAVON

716 
WWUS53 KDMX 291402
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
902 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

IAC051-179-291412-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-110529T1400Z/
WAPELLO IA-DAVIS IA-
902 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN DAVIS AND WAPELLO
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. HEAVY RAIN...NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS REMAIN 
POSSIBLE THROUGH 930 AM.

LAT...LON 4081 9218 4079 9263 4112 9263 4113 9257
      4117 9223 4117 9218 4116 9217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 254DEG 49KT 4102 9232

$$

DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEATHER TODAY. CURRENTLY...INSTABILITY AXIS
JUST SOUTH OF IA AND POISED TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE STATE. ALREADY CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI WHERE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
OCCURRING FED BY A 50KT LLJ. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING CROSSING INTO IA BY
SUNRISE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGE HAIL THREAT FROM THESE STORMS AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF PCPN IS SET
TO AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN IA. THIS PCPN WILL
LACK THE INSTABILITY OF THE PCPN FARTHER SOUTH AND HAVE LIMITED
WORDING TO SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND DONT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS PCPN. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH BEST THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN. AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD
OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NORTH OF THE FRONT ON EDGE
OF CAP AND SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL ONCE
AGAIN A BIG THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH...THE EML SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF I-80 WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING QUICKLY INTO
THE 80S. IN FACT...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
UPWARDS SHOULD THE SUN COME OUT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN LONG TERM FORECAST THINKING FROM LAST NIGHT. WARM
FRONT DISCUSSED IN SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT...LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A LINGERING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN OUR FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT...BEFORE THE STORMS
MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA AND HAVE UPDATED POP TRENDS TONIGHT
TO REFLECT THIS.

ON MONDAY...MEMORIAL DAY...THE APPROACHING LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS IOWA RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
WARRANTED...THIS WILL BE EXAMINED CLOSELY BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL PROMOTE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD THUS EXPECT A HOT AND WINDY BUT DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA.

ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL PIVOT RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN MONTANA UP
INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS IOWA LIKELY
GENERATING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED TO OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND MORE UP INTO SIOUXLAND AS THE BEST
FORCING AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING UP ACROSS MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COVERAGE
OF PRECIP IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT DURING THIS TIME AS WE SHOULD SEE
GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT DEEPER FORCING WILL REALLY BE
PETERING OUT AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE
CONTINUED LIKELY POPS FROM 06-12Z BUT AM WONDERING IF THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE MAINLY ACROSS OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THINGS LOOK RELATIVELY
QUIET...DRY...AND MILD BENEATH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH ONE EXCEPTION
- SOME MODEL RUNS ARE STILL GENERATING A FAIRLY SUBTLE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE THAT RIDES THROUGH AND OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE NEAR OUR
AREA AROUND MIDWEEK...GENERATING QPFS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS OF THIS
FEATURE PRECLUDES GOING HIGHER THAN LOW TO MID-CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO DOES SEEM QUITE REASONABLE AND IF THE
WAVE DOES CROSS OVER OUR AREA WE WOULD LIKELY SEE A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SET UP WITH PLENTY OF JUICE SO STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY AT THAT POINT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY
OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SOUTHEAST IA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACRS THE STATE.  OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
WILL EXIST ACRS THE REMAINDER OF IA AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
STATE.  MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN AND AROUND THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE EAST.  THESE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE.  BY TONIGHT...ONLY
NORTHERN IA WILL SEE THE THREAT OF STORMS AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE WILL BE CAPPED BY A EML.  THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE STATE REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...COGIL
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-301100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN DES MOINES RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS IN NORTHWESTERN
IOWA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MID NEXT WEEK IS
STILL BEING ANALYZED.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
741 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0716 AM     HAIL             MURRAY                  41.04N 93.95W
05/29/2011  E1.00 INCH       CLARKE             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MAINLY NICKEL HAIL...WITH A FEW QUARTER SIZED MIXED IN...

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
743 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     HAIL             MURRAY                  41.04N 93.95W
05/29/2011  E0.88 INCH       CLARKE             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SECOND ROUND OF HAIL WAS SIZE OF NICKELS...

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     HAIL             2 NW MONTEZUMA          41.60N 92.55W
05/29/2011  E1.00 INCH       POWESHIEK          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL...DISK-LIKE IN APPEARANCE

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
817 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOXVILLE               41.32N 93.10W
05/29/2011                   MARION             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN IN KNOXVILLE

&&

CCOGIL