Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Winter Storm Warnings in 2011

Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS State College, PA

January 31, 201133 counties in Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this winter storm warning at Jan 31, 2011, 3:07 PM EST for 33 counties in Pennsylvania. It took effect at Feb 1, 2011, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for 30 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 31, 2011, 3:07 PM EST (20:07 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 1, 2011, 1:00 AM EST
Expired
Feb 2, 2011, 6:41 AM EST
In force
30 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
All 33 counties

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-01-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2011-01-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 3 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1411 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

852 
WWUS41 KCTP 312007
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...WITH THE MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS LONG
DURATION AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW TO ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND ROUND OF STEADY AND HEAVIER SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ONE
TWO PUNCH FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. AFTER UP TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THICK AND DAMAGING
ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE LIKELY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. 

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-011115-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110202T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.110201T0600Z-110202T2200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...
LAPORTE
307 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
  MORNING...THEN A TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW...SLEET
  AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A 6 TO 10 HOUR PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING. A SECOND BATCH OF STEADY...AND HEAVIER
  PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE
  WITH THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BE MAINLY A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
  SLEET. A FEW PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY BEFORE TAPERING TO
  PERIODS OF LIGHT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
  ADDITIONAL...AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS
  LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL BETWEEN 7 AND 12
  INCHES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF
  FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IF WARMER AIR STREAMS
  IN ALOFT.

* TIMING...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND ICE
  COVERED ROADS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80 DUE TO THICK ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN
  ON TREE LIMBS WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE
ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.
CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR
PHONE IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND
AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-011115-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110202T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0004.110201T0600Z-110202T1800Z/
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...
LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...
CHAMBERSBURG...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...
NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
307 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT
ICE ACCUMULATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM
EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
  MORNING...THEN A TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF LIGHTER SNOW...SLEET
  AND FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT A 6 TO 10 HOUR PERIOD TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND BATCH OF STEADY... AND HEAVIER
  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE
  WITH THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BE MAINLY SLEET AND...OR FREEZING
  RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY BEFORE MIXING WITH
  OR CHANGING TO PERIODS OF LIGHTER SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL...AND SIGNIFICANT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
  LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF
  ICE UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN THICKNESS IS POSSIBLE LATE
  TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND ICE 
  COVERED ROADS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THICK 
  ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON TREE LIMBS WHICH COULD KNOCK 
  DOWN POWER LINES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE
ROUTE...OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.
CARRY EXTRA SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR
PHONE IN CASE YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND
AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

LAMBERT/CERU/KOZAR
5 follow-up statements
510 
WWUS41 KCTP 010847
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-020015-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T2200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...
LAPORTE
347 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
  SNOW AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND AREA OF WINTRY
  PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW AND SLEET WILL REMAIN THE
  DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
  LIKELY NEAR INTERSTATE 80.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
  BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER INCH.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80 DUE TO THICK ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-020015-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T1800Z/
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...
LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...
CHAMBERSBURG...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...
NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
347 AM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW AND SLEET OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
  NEAR INTERSTATE 80 WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND
  FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF
  INTERSTATE 80. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN ROUTE 22. LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR SLEET
  ACCUMULATION FROM THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE SOUTH TO THE
  MARYLAND BORDER. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN ONE
  QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THICK
  ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

STEINBUGL/GARTNER
550 
WWUS41 KCTP 011820
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-020500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T2200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...
LAPORTE
120 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING
  RAIN WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. A SECOND...AND HEAVIER AREA
  OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW AND SLEET...AND A FEW
  PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES. THE GREATEST
  THREAT FOR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DUSK
  WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE INCH. AN ADDITONAL 2 TO 6
  INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF
  SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER. AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW
  SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR INTERSTATE 80. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
  ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER INCH...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH
  OF GLAZE NEAR INTERSTATE 80.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS 
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
  ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80 DUE TO THICK ACCRETIONS OF 
  FREEZING RAIN. 

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...SOUTHEAST
  10 TO 20 MPH ON THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE
  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 15
  TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-020500-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T1800Z/
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...
LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...
CHAMBERSBURG...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...
NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
120 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...INTERMITTENT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR
  FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FREEZING
  RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...ALONG
  WITH PERIODS OF SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH
  IN MOST PLACES...WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG INTERSTATE
  80 NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...DANVILLE AND BLOOMSBURG. SIGNIFICANT ICE
  ACCUMULATION BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH ALONG AND
  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE HEAVIEST GLAZING LIKELY ACROSS
  THE RIDGES NEAR...OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS 
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO 
  THICK ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN. 
  
* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...AND
  SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
  WEST ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN'S IN THE
  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
  20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

LAMBERT/CERU/EVANEGO
054 
WWUS41 KCTP 020342
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1042 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-021145-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T2200Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...
LAPORTE
1042 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO MAINLY
  FREEZING RAIN. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL SLEET. SIGNIFICANT
  ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A GLAZE OF MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH IS
  CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80. LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE NEW YORK
  BORDER WILL LIKELY SEE A THINNER ICE ACCRETION.

* IMPACTS...ICE AND SLEET COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
  CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 80 DUE TO THICK ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN
  ON POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS WHICH MAY BREAK OFF AND PULL DOWN
  THE POWER LINES.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...
  SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
  WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
  INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE LATER
  WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-021145-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T1800Z/
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...
LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...
CHAMBERSBURG...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...
NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
1042 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. 

* LOCATION...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TURNING TO ALL
  FREEZING RAIN. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE MAY WARM UP
  ENOUGH TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN BY SUNRISE. BUT THOSE SOUTHERN TIER
  AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE BUILD UP BEFORE
  WARMING UP.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
  SIGNIFICANT AND DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE QUARTER
  AND ONE HALF INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE
  HEAVIEST GLAZING LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGES NEAR AND JUST TO THE
  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET MORE THAN ONE
  HALF OF AN INCH OF A THICK...ICY GLAZE.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY DUE TO THICK
  ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON THE POWER LINES THEMSELVES AND
  ALSO ON TREE LIMBS WHICH WOULD BREAK OFF AND COULD PULL DOWN THE
  POWER LINES.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...AND 
  SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE RIDGES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE 
  WEST ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN'S IN THE 
  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 15 
  TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$
215 
WWUS41 KCTP 020838
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-021500-
/O.EXT.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T1500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...
PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...
MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...
MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...
LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...
SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...
HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...
LANCASTER
338 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
  WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY WINTRY
  PRECIPITATION IS OVER.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL MINOR GLAZE OF ICE. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO THICK
  ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON TREES AND POWER LINES. 

* WINDS...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...AND
  SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE RIDGES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE AN ALTERNATIVE ROUTE...OR
SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. CARRY EXTRA
SUPPLIES...INCLUDING BLANKETS...FOOD AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN CASE
YOUR CAR BECOMES STRANDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

&&

$$

MS
641 
WWUS41 KCTP 021141
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
641 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-021245-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110202T1500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...
ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...
PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...
MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...
MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...
LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...
SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...
HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...
LANCASTER
641 AM EST WED FEB 2 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ICING IS
ESSENTIALLY OVER...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
PERSONS TRAVELING THIS MORNING SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION AS ROADS
MAY BE VERY SLICK FROM OVERNIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

$$

MS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Jan 31, 11:59 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 11:59 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1159 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A MESSY AND LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL CREATE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WEST THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
FRIDAY BEFORE A STORM FORMS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES UP THE
EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO BE LIFTED OVER THE
MORE SHALLOW SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE...AS SHOWN BY
VSBL SAT LOOP AND THE SOLID DECK OF THICK STRATUS/STRATO CU NEAR
THE MASON/DIXON LINE. THE WEAK TO MDT UVVEL/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRODUCING THIS EXPANSIVE CLOUD AREA WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DEEPER UVVEL AND RESULTANT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF ACROSS THE SOUTH
UNTIL LATE TODAY /AROUND DUSK/. HOWEVER...MODELS NOTORIOUS FOR
UNDERESTIMATING THE ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP UP TO A FEW-SVRL
HOURS.

PRECIP TYPE FOR THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP TONIGHT /3-4 TENTHS
WORTH IN MANY LOCATIONS/ WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW
WEDGE OF WARMER...JUST ABOVE 0C AIR AROUND 800 MB...LIFTING NE
INTO SOUTHERN PA AND THE LAURELS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD LEAD
TO A MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR A LITTLE -FZRA.

COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO HOLD OF ON ANY UPGRADE TO THE
WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT. WILL LIKELY BE GOING THE ROUTE
OF UPGRADING TO A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN MTNS OF PENN. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN /WHERE
THE SECOND /HEAVIER/ BATCH OF PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN/ AND COULD COME IN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA IF ITS
MAINLY SLEET... WE'RE STILL ON THE FENCE WHETHER IR NO TO
TRANSITION TO A SPLIT HEADLINE FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT...WHILE MAINTAINING THE WATCH FOR LATER TOMORROW INTO
WEDNESDAY.

DECISIONS WILL BE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER DIGESTING
THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE AND INTERMEDIATE SREF RUNS.

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FCST...MID AFTERNOON MAXS IN
THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH...TO MID AND UPPER 20S IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THE BIG HIGH OFF TO THE N WILL MOVE LITTLE AND FILL ONLY
THE SLIGHTEST BIT - AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE. THIS IS THE FIRST INGREDIENT FOR A MESSY STORM. THE SECOND
AND THIRD INGREDIENTS COME ALONG IN THE FORM OF A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

THE RESULTING LOW OVER THE TX COAST DEEPENS AS IT TAKES A TRIP UP
THE MS R AND THEN FOLLOWS OR STAYS 100 OR SO MI TO THE N OF THE
MIGHTY OH R. THE TRACK OF THE STORM IS ALMOST BURNT INTO THE
SCREEN OF MY MONITOR WITH NEARLY ALL MDLS AGREEING THAT THE
MAIN/PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL OH AND THROUGH
NRN/CENT PA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY S OF MOST
SOLNS...BUT THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS RANGE ARE SMALL.

LOOKING FOR REASONS TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE...AND
HAVE FOUND NONE. SEVERAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE EJECTED OUT OF THE
ALMOST-CUTOFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE FIRST OF THESE
STRONGER WAVES MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME
THAT THE ERLY FLOW PILES UP MSTR IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE S
TONIGHT...IT GETS HELP IN THE FORM OF A MEETING OF THE DEVELOPING SRN
JET AND A 120KT JET OVER ERN CANADA. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LIGHTLY
THIS EVENING IN THE SW AND SPREAD TO COVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SNOW...BUT SOME FZRA/FZDZ IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SW. ACCUMS OVERNIGHT WILL START SLOWLY...BUT AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE AND 2-4 POSSIBLE IN THE NRN HALF
BY MORNING.

EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SEEMS STRAIGHT FORWARD THEN...WITH SNOW
TURNING TO A MIX. THE PERIOD OF FZRA COULD BE VERY LONG OVER THE
CENTRAL COS - IN AREAS LIKE CLEARFIELD...STATE COLLEGE AND
DANVILLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
MIXING IN AS TEMPS TRY TO WARM. THE COLD AIR DAMMING AND THICK
CLOUDS WILL DIM THAT HOPE THOUGH. SO...MUCH OF THE EVENT WILL BE
SNOW ALONG THE NY BORDER...WITH A LATE CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE S.

THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN
THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT
SRLY LLJET BLOWS THROUGH. THE NOSE OF THE JET POINTS RIGHT AT THE
CENTRAL COS...AND THE DECELERATION THERE WILL SPELL HEAVY PRECIP
LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED AM.

THE WATCH IS STILL IN GOOD POSITION/TIMING. ALL OF THE AREA WILL
SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS STORM. THE SRN TIER WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE LEAST WORRY...BUT ICE ACCUMS STILL POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARY LOW PUSHES PAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT ON WED....TAPERING
PRECIP OFF. THE TEMPS CRASH AFTERWARD AND SHSN LIKELY IN THE W/N
FOR THE AFTN AND WED NIGHT. THE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED BITTER COLD
FOR THURS/FRI HAS NOW BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY. IT WILL STILL BE
COLD...BUT MINS BELOW 0F NOT IN THE CARDS ANYMORE PER LATEST
MEX/MOSGUIDE/ENS-MOS NUMBERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN FOR
THURS NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT IS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED CP
AIR OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS ATTM. SO...IT COULD STILL BE
COLD...ESP IF THE TRAJS OFF THE NEW SNOW/ICE PACK OVER THE MIDWEST
AND LOCAL LEAD TO/ALLOW LESS MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BARE GROUND. ALL IN ALL...FRI LOOKS LIKE
THE DRIEST DAY.

THE NEXT BIG THING WOULD BE A COASTAL LOW TO FORM ON FRIDAY OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND RIDE UP THE COAST. THIS POTENTIAL WEEKEND
STORM LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY THIS YEAR -
ALL SNOW FOR THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF DEEP SNOW TO THE
EAST OF STATE COLLEGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA TAF SITES. NORTHERN
EDGE OF AN EXPANSIVE VFR TO MVFR STRATO CU DECK JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PENN/MD BORDER AT 16Z WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS PENN
THROUGH DUSK.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP INVOF OF KJST...KMDT AND KLNS AROUND
00Z TUESDAY...AND NEAR A KBFD TO KIPT LINE AROUND...OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY IN SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY....MIXING
WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SLEET/FZRA FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE 8-12 HOUR PERIOD OF PEAK
SNOWFALL RATES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR
VSBYS IN PERIODS OF MAINLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LLWS WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A SHARP SHIFT
AND INCREASE IN SFC WINDS TO THE WEST WITH SFC GUSTS TO 35 KTS WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAIN THREAT FOR THE HIGHER SFC GUSTS SHOULD
BE ACROSS SRN PENN.

THUR AND FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN
MAINLY MTN SNOW SHOWERS. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 4:17 AM EST, 10 hours 50 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
417 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-010930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
417 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 30, 7:18 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchCTPAdams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cameron, Centre and 27 more20 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2011Every winter storm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.