Wind Advisory 22, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

308 
WWUS74 KCRP 030500
NPWCRP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1200 AM CDT THU NOV 3 2011

...STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH BEING POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TO BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

TXZ242>245-031600-
/O.EXT.KCRP.WI.Y.0022.111103T0700Z-111103T1600Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...
PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT
1200 AM CDT THU NOV 3 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM UNTIL 11 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID
  MORNING THURSDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING CAN BE DIFFICULT FOR MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY 
  THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN 
  FURNITURE...GARBAGE CANS OR ANY OTHER LIGHT AND LOOSE OBJECTS 
  CAN BE BLOWN AROUND BY THE STRONG WINDS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 25 TO 39 MPH OR HAVE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH OR HIGHER.

&&

$$

TE/RH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A STRONG COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING. THE FRONTAL BDRY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR MARATHON TO
NEAR WICHITA FALLS. THE BDRY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CWA AROUND
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE COAST BETWEEN 07-09Z AND THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 09Z-12Z. AHD OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE...MAINLY SHRAS. ALONG THE BDRY...STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...POOL OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES AND
INCREASING OMEGA VALUES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA'S. A FEW
TSRA'S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LOW TO
NIL EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE N TO NE OF THE CWA. THERE'S A BETTER
CHC OF TSRA'S ALONG THE BDRY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE INSTABILITY.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRATIFORM RA IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING ON THU...ENDING FROM NW TO SE. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS
AND MUCH DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. STRONG N WINDS WILL LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS S TX DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...AND OVER THE WATERS WITH GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...QUICKER FARTHER INLAND...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S BY THU
MORNING...AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA WIDE. THU NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER...LIKELY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND TO LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

&&

.MARINE...MOD ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY IN THE
EVENING AHD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL WATERS SOMETIME BETWEEN 09Z TO AROUND
12Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA'S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

MAIN CONCERN ARE THE WINDS. VERY STRONG N WINDS WILL DVLP BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH HIGH END SCA LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BUT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THU EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SEAS
SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S TX LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT WITH A TSRA OR TWO POSSIBLE. STRONG N WINDS WILL
USHER DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO S TX. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW
WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOD TO STRONG LATER THAN REST OF THE AREA AND RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO CRITICAL LEVELS. GENERALLY FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AREA WIDE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL
THINKING LAST FEW DAYS WRT EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...BUT WILL SEE
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WX ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AFTER A CHILLY
START. A RAPID WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
INTO A VIGOROUS UPR TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE WELL AWAY FROM
THE AREA...BUT NOT BEFORE DRAWING A NICE POOL OF DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE INTO S TX AS THE NEXT UPR TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST. THINK MOISTURE RETURN/DEPTH
WILL NOT QUITE BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD SHRA EXCEPT OVER THE GULF
PERHAPS AND WILL REMOVE POPS ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS. THE MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLD STREAMER SHRA BY SUN AND PERHAPS
EVEN LOW END SCT POPS BY MON...BUT WILL KEEP IN ISOLD RANGE FOR NOW.
GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT UPR TROUGH...AS THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER. BOTH SHOW AN ASSOC FROPA
LATE TUE W/ DECENT PVA...MID LEVEL COOLING AND JET POSITIONS AND
THEREFORE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAIN CHCS. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
KEEP POPS IN SLT CHC TO LOW END CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT AND ESP SINCE
MODELS ARE JUST NOW SETTLING DOWN SOME. ALSO...TURNING OF THE H85
FLOW TO THE SW AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES IS A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT
NEGATIVE FACTOR...ALTHOUGH STRONG DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL COOLING MAY
OVERCOME. THE H85 FLOW SUGGESTS VCT AND AREAS NE WOULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS THAN SRN AREAS BUT CAN'T PUT TO MUCH FAITH
IN THOSE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. THIS FRONT APPEARS A BIT MORE PACIFIC
AND POSSIBLY NOT A COOL AS TONIGHTS FROPA...BUT IS STILL A DECENT
FRONT NONETHELESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    53  67  41  72  51  /  40  10   0   0  10
VICTORIA          50  67  36  69  44  /  50  10   0   0  10
LAREDO            53  70  45  75  50  /  20  10   0   0   0
ALICE             53  68  40  73  46  /  30  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          53  67  45  69  52  /  40  10   0   0  10
COTULLA           49  68  38  73  46  /  20  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        54  68  40  74  47  /  40  10   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       56  67  50  68  61  /  40  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
     O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MJG/88...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
548 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

TXZ229>234-239>247-031100-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
548 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH THE DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-031100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
548 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PZ/TMT