Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Cleveland, OH

442 
WWUS51 KCLE 122021
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
421 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

OHC005-103-169-122045-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-110512T2045Z/
ASHLAND OH-MEDINA OH-WAYNE OH-
421 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHWESTERN MEDINA AND NORTHERN ASHLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 413 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF POLK...OR 6 MILES EAST OF ASHLAND...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...WEST
SALEM AND CONGRESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE NOW AND STAY AWAY 
FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4085 8241 4107 8219 4107 8217 4112 8214
      4090 8192 4081 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 262DEG 13KT 4087 8216

$$
SCHULER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
339 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. THE
THREAT MIGHT BE MORE IN THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED NORTH
AND LIKELY SOUTH AND THEN A CHANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE NAM MODEL SEEMS TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR THE OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR AND FORECAST TRENDS GOING
WITH SCATTERED NORTH AND LIKELY SOUTH EARLY. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. DID A MIX OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS. WITH ENOUGH
HEATING AND UNSTABLE AIR MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR FRIDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES IN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE TROF SURFACE AND ALOFT HANGS ON AROUND SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME OMEGA. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE IS
HIGH BUT THEN DECREASE THE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOWS DROPS SOUTHEAST.

TEMPERATURE FORECASTING IS TOUGH. DID A MIX OF MOS NAM AND GFS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE. MY THINKING IS THAT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ABOUT AND MOVE TO THE EAST VERY SLOWLY
LEAVING MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WET CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLOWLY DRYING THINGS OUT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHILE KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
CONSIDERING...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
THE CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCT LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON COOL SITE DURING THIS PERIOD
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MY TAF SITES
THROUGH 23Z. LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PCPN AND FOG THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AFTER 03Z...LOOK FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN...AND THEN JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL LURKING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN
FOCUS AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW PRESSURE AND
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...SCATTERED NON-VFR IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE LAKE AND INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. I ANTICIPATE WE WILL DEFINITELY NEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH
WAVE ACTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AS WELL FOR TUESDAY POSSIBLY ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE
DISCONTINUED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WARM MOIST POOL OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
WILL FILL INTO THE REGION TODAY. PW VALUES AROUND 1.25" OR GREATER
WILL SUPPORT >1" AN HOUR RAINFALL RATES...WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF
>1.5" ALREADY OBSERVED THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
MOVE AROUND THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE...WITH STORM MOTIONS DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RECENT FLOODS AND A NEAR RECORD SPRING FOR
RAINFALL HAS LEFT SOIL MOISTURE VERY WET DESPITE THE BEING THE
GROWING SEASON. THE COMBINATION OF WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...HIGH RAINFALL RATES...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING OR EVEN FLASH
FLOODING. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE EXPECTED FLOODING GIVEN THE
SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION IS HOLDING BACK ANY TYPE OF WATCH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...LOMBARDY
HYDROLOGY...21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1132 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-131545-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
1132 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ142>149-162>169-131545-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
1132 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-131545-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
1132 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.