Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CU DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS
POPPING UP SOUTH OF DTW AND NORTH OF TOL. CONTINUED WITH AT LEAST
SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EAST SIDE OF CLE
AND THE SUBURBS IMPACTED BY A CLUSTER OF TS COMING OFF THE LAKE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ABOUT TEMPS BELOW.

MODIFIED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE NOT VERY
REPRESENTATIVE WITH MAV AND MET SHOWING DPTS MIXING OUT INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO 70 ACROSS GREATER TOL AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
POOLING AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR THEM TO REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH 100. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT DO WANT TO MENTION THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY ESPECIALLY AROUND GREATER TOLEDO. THE ONLY OTHER
ITEM HOLDING BACK IS THAT GIVEN EXPECTED CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT
CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW FOR MAXES TO REMAIN
AROUND 91 OR 92.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE. IT
APPEARS THAT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THE SITUATION
CHANGES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PRECIP
FOR THE AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLIER TIMING IN THE FORECAST WAS PERHAPS A
TAD SLOW SO HAVE SPED UP THE PRECIP A FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BY LATE WEDNESDAY EXPECTING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO BE DRY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE ETA MOS
SEEMS WAY TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM NEAR CHICAGO ON
FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES MAY END UP BEING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER
QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM IN THE NW MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW MAY APPROACH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MIDDLE LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN AREA OF LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA THROUGH THE MORNING. UNCERTAIN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOR THE AFTERNOON SO ONLY PLACED
A CB IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. TRIED PLAYING A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR WHEN VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW
3 MILES IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT
PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS. THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. GUSTS
SHOULD NOT LAST MORE THAN 3 OR 4 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST
LOCATIONS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...PATCHY MVFR BR TUESDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME STRONGER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING AS
IT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. IT APPEARS A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF CHICAGO ON FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
653 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-021100-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
653 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MIDDLE 90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 AM     HAIL             WILLOUGHBY              41.65N 81.41W
08/01/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

1000 AM     HAIL             MENTOR                  41.69N 81.33W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

1002 AM     HAIL             MENTOR                  41.69N 81.33W
08/01/2011  E1.25 INCH       LAKE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

1004 AM     HAIL             MENTOR-ON-THE-LAKE      41.71N 81.36W
08/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTES 2 AND 615.

1007 AM     HAIL             WILLOUGHBY              41.65N 81.41W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

1013 AM     HAIL             WILLOUGHBY              41.65N 81.41W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

1021 AM     HAIL             EASTLAKE                41.66N 81.43W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1036 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 AM     HAIL             MENTOR                  41.69N 81.33W
08/01/2011  E2.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

1015 AM     HAIL             MENTOR                  41.69N 81.33W
08/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAKE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND BRANCHES DOWN.

1019 AM     HAIL             WILLOUGHBY              41.65N 81.41W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

1022 AM     HAIL             W MENTOR                41.69N 81.33W
08/01/2011  E1.75 INCH       LAKE               OH   PUBLIC

1027 AM     HAIL             KIRTLAND                41.60N 81.34W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       LAKE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1156 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               41.48N 81.68W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

1150 AM     HAIL             EUCLID                  41.59N 81.52W
08/01/2011  E0.88 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

1153 AM     HAIL             EUCLID                  41.59N 81.52W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1217 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               41.48N 81.68W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

1205 PM     HAIL             MAYFIELD HEIGHTS        41.52N 81.45W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1236 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1221 PM     HAIL             3 E CHAGRIN FALLS       41.43N 81.33W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       GEAUGA             OH   PUBLIC

1234 PM     HAIL             MORELAND HILLS          41.44N 81.43W
08/01/2011  E1.00 INCH       CUYAHOGA           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE