Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER MISSOURI MOVES TO NORTHERN INDIANA BY
MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE TO NEAR TORONTO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER
LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS POISED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THERE WITH WEAKER CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF TOL.
LOCAL AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN SHOWS
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. WITH WARM HUMID AIR POISED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
REGION...HAVE USED THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LOCAL AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT CAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

 &&

.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30
KT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HAVE USED THE
MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLER LESS STABLE
AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH AN EVENING LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DRY HIGH PRES WILL BE DOMINANT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE
WEEK WEARS ON THE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND INTO THE
80S...AND BY WED THE S FLOW WILL RETURN DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS
WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A TROF OF LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE AREA OF LATE WED...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THU. MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WX
EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR
TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EARLIER CONVECTION IS ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE. OVERRUNNING WHERE NE FLOW CONTINUES WILL KEEP SOME IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE...HOWEVER BACKING AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
INDIANA WILL HELP ERODE THIS BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW OH. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAIN
COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR VSBY IN A FEW SPOTS...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER
COULD LIMIT COVERAGE. MEANWHILE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
OUR W AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES AND POSSIBLY AN MCS MOVES E OVER
INDIANA AND INTO OH OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT
AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TSRA NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
A LARGER COMPLEX...SO HARD TO RULE OUT CB IN ANY PERIOD TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN TSRA ONLY EXPECTED ON SAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST FLOW HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KICK UP THE WAVES ON LAKE ERIE
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THEY HAVE NOT BEEN TO SCA CRITERIA AND
WAVES HAVE BEEN 2 TO 3 FEET SO WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN
WATERS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT...WITH
LIGHT S WINDS. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT...BUT BELIEVE
DURATION WON'T SUPPORT SCA AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OVER LAKE ERIE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REL
NEAR TERM...REL
SHORT TERM...REL
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
603 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ006-008-012>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-
047-089-PAZ001>003-111015-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-WOOD-SANDUSKY-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-
PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-
MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
603 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE THREAT
INCREASING MAINLY THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS WITH STORMS AT THIS TIME ARE STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ003-007-009>011-111015-
LUCAS-OTTAWA-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-
603 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
THREAT INCREASING MAINLY THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS WITH STORMS AT THIS TIME ARE
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.