Heat Advisory 13, NWS Columbia, SC

469 
WWUS72 KCAE 312204
NPWCAE

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
604 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

GAZ063>065-077-SCZ016-018-022-025>031-035>038-041-312315-
/O.CAN.KCAE.HT.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-110731T2300Z/
MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-CHESTERFIELD-MCCORMICK-KERSHAW-
EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-
ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...THOMSON...MARTINEZ...EVANS...
HEPHZIBAH...WAYNESBORO...CHERAW...CAMDEN...LUGOFF...EDGEFIELD...
JOHNSTON...RIDGE SPRING...WEST COLUMBIA...CAYCE...LEXINGTON...
RED BANK...COLUMBIA...BISHOPVILLE...AIKEN...NORTH AUGUSTA...
SUMTER...BARNWELL...WILLISTON...BLACKVILLE...ORANGEBURG...
ST. MATTHEWS...MANNING...SUMMERTON...BAMBERG...DENMARK
604 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS CANCELLED THE HEAT
ADVISORY. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAVE COOLED
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
FALLING BELOW 100 DEGREES. AS A RESULT THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
142 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWARD SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY LEAD TO NEAR-
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE NAM INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
AREA. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND THE HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORTS POSSIBLE
FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THERE
WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND EXPECT STRONG HEATING. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK AND SLOW MOVING FRONT
SUPPORTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE NAM SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING OVER 2 INCHES. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND THIS MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
DIMINISH. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS CONTINUED TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING. MOISTURE APPEARED TO
INCREASE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE INDICATED ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.

REGARDING POSSIBLE FOG EARLY IN THE PERIOD...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPORARY
MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AFTER 18Z
CAE/CUB...SPREADING TO OGB AFTER 21Z AND AGS/DNL AFTER 23Z WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH THE FRONT NEARBY.  INCLUDED CB EXTENSION ALL TERMINALS
BUT DID INCLUDE SOME PRECIPITATION AT CAE/CUB WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS
HIGHEST...HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE RESTRICTIONS AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF STRONGER STORMS BUT WILL INCLUDE IN
LATER FORECASTS.  THINK BEST CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME AND MAINLY THINKING VSBYS WILL BE
AFFECTED MORE THAN CIGS.

EXPECT LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME EASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...HC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-010015-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
801 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.