Wind Advisory 2, NWS Billings, MT

697 
WWUS75 KBYZ 070403
NPWBYZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
903 PM MST THU JAN 6 2011


MTZ065-070515-
/O.CAN.KBYZ.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-110107T0600Z/
LIVINGSTON AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LIVINGSTON
903 PM MST THU JAN 6 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CAUSED WINDS
TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 PM MST THU JAN 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

WINDS WERE STILL STRONG AT LIVINGSTON WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
GRADIENT TREND SHOWS WEAKENING AND THIS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THE WIND EFFECTS WERE FROM MIXING
AND THIS WILL SUBSIDE TOO AS THE SUN SETS AND TEMPERATURES COOL
OFF. WINDS FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON AND JUDITH GAP HAVE
DECREASED AND WERE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE TREND IS FOR
BACKING OFF OF WIND SPEEDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS SHOULD STAY STRONG AT LIVINGSTON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BACK OFF QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING SUN.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER SOMEWHAT MILD DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC. DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WILL BE CLOUDS AROUND
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ALSO GENERATE SOME LIFT FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS. GFS
SEEMS OVER DONE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF BEING GENERATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AS IT APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. THERE IS A WARM AIR ALOFT PATTERN IN STORE...SO NEED TO
KEEP POPS IN PLACE. THE PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN HAS
LEFT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY SO WILL BE TAKE A BIT TO MOISTEN UP
THAT LAYER FOR PRODUCTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE EAST WILL THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL RIDE OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE
FOR LIFT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THERE
WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT ALL LEVELS LOOKED BELOW
FREEZING ON THE SOUNDINGS...SO KEPT IT SNOW.

THE ARCTIC WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. THE UPPER LOW DRIVING THE ARCTIC DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ZONES SUNDAY. THIS TRANSPIRES INTO A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
WITH THE ARCTIC FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS. NOT THE BEST HEAVY SNOW
PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST WILL BE UNDER THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL BE OVER THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY...SO SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST WITH WRAP
AROUND. WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL HAVE SNOW LIKELY ENDING
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST AS THIS
LOCATION WILL BE THE BEST SPOT FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PERIOD WAS
SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE COLD WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW WAS FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN SLIDE E OF THE AREA ON
MON. THE 700 MB LOW WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON SUN
SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS. MOISTURE AND LIFT WERE LESS FURTHER W...SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM KBIL W. THE CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NIGHT WERE IN
GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE FOR MON POPS WAS TO RAISE THEM TO CHANCE
OVER SE MT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPARTING LOW. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES VARIED FROM THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO C ON THE GFS TO
NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO C ON THE ECMWF ON SUN. THE GOING HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOKED FINE FOR NOW. ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION THROUGH MON. MON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE ECMWF LINGERED CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER SE MT MON NIGHT SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THIS AREA.
THE AIRMASS WAS FORECAST TO DRY OUT ON TUE SO HAVE DRIED OUT MOST OF
THE AREA. ARCTIC AIR REMAINED IN PLACE THROUGH TUE AND THE GOING TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A FLAT WNW FLOW WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
ALLOWING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. MODELS AGREED
THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WED NIGHT AND
THU WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -22 DEGREES C. GRADUALLY SPREAD
POPS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ARTHUR

&&

.AVIATION...

W TO SW SURFACE WINDS AT 30 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER KLVM. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING OVER KBIL AND KSHR...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER KMLS.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE AREA AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. RAIN WILL MIX WITH THE SNOW FROM KBIL W FRI
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
THROUGH FRI. ARTHUR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/037 027/033 007/014 902/005 907/004 907/011 905/002
    33/O    57/S    63/S    32/S    11/B    22/S    22/S
LVM 024/039 027/031 008/014 902/006 906/006 906/019 003/000
    23/O    47/S    62/S    32/S    11/B    22/S    33/S
HDN 025/036 022/033 006/013 903/004 912/004 910/011 906/005
    33/S    57/S    63/S    32/S    11/B    11/B    22/S
MLS 024/032 017/026 001/008 906/000 917/903 913/007 909/003
    22/S    77/S    76/S    32/S    11/I    11/B    22/S
4BQ 023/034 018/028 005/011 904/003 911/000 912/011 905/008
    23/S    77/S    76/S    32/S    21/B    11/B    22/S
BHK 019/027 009/020 902/006 908/902 913/904 914/006 910/002
    21/E    67/S    66/S    33/S    21/I    11/B    12/S
SHR 025/036 021/033 006/015 904/005 911/007 908/017 001/014
    23/S    36/S    84/S    32/S    11/B    11/B    22/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
      SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 30>33-36-37-58.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
338 PM MST THU JAN 6 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-072245-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
338 PM MST THU JAN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. THOUGH DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...EAST OF BILLINGS. A SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM...AND IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES LATER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.