Alert archive / New York / High Wind Watches in 2011
High Wind Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind watch at Apr 16, 2011, 4:36 AM EDT for 8 counties in New York. It took effect at Apr 17, 2011, 5:00 AM EDT. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 16, 2011, 4:36 AM EDT (08:36 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 17, 2011, 5:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 16, 2011, 3:33 PM EDT
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 22 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1517 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 493 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 552 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
380 WWUS71 KBUF 160836 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 436 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 NYZ007-008-161645- /O.UPG.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.110416T1500Z-110417T0300Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.HW.W.0001.110416T1400Z-110417T0300Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 436 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ019-085-161645- /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110416T1800Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 436 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM THE HAMBURG EXIT TO THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ004>006-161645- /O.EXT.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.110416T1400Z-110417T0300Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 436 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-020-161645- /O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...OLEAN 436 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS. * TIMING...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ013-014-021-161645- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE 436 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ APFFEL
3 follow-up statements
078 WWUS71 KBUF 161413 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1013 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 NYZ019-085-162215- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110416T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1013 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. * TIMING...WARNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TODAY. SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM THE HAMBURG EXIT TO THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ007-008-162215- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 1013 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-020-162215- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...OLEAN 1013 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS. * TIMING...ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH TODAY. SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ004>006-162215- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 1013 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ013-014-021-162000- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE 1013 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ HITCHCOCK/SFM
186 WWUS71 KBUF 161710 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 110 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 NYZ019-085-170115- /O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110416T1800Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 110 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES. * TIMING...WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-020-170115- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...OLEAN 110 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. BE PREPARED FOR TREES BLOCKING ROADWAYS AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR THE OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ007-008-170115- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 110 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ004>006-170115- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO 110 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ013-014-021-162000- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE 110 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ SFM
884 WWUS71 KBUF 161933 NPWBUF URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 333 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 NYZ004-005-162045- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN 333 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. $$ NYZ013-014-021-162045- /O.CAN.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110416T2000Z/ LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE 333 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. $$ NYZ007-008-170300- /O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 333 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. * TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES RESULTING IN POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THOSE OPERATING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085-170345- /O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0006.110417T0900Z-110417T2200Z/ NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA- CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER... BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK... SPRINGVILLE 333 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO AREAS. * TIMING...SUNDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ NYZ006-170300- /O.CON.KBUF.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110417T0300Z/ OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 333 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE...OSWEGO...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND A FEW POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES MAY CAUSE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE WITHOUT EXTRA PRECAUTIONS. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $$ SFM
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Apr 16, 4:16 AM EDT, 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 16, 4:16 AM EDT, 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES TODAY...LIFTING INTO
ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW...BRINGING RAIN OR
POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
LAKES BRINGING MORE RAIN TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BASICALLY
IMPACTING WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON....AND LOCATIONS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE NAM/GFS IN
AGREEMENT THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO 80 KTS...MIXING WILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...A SE FLOW DOES NOT
TYPICALLY MIX WELL IN MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. BUFKIT MIXING PROFILES
BEAR THIS OUT. IN GENERAL...STAYED WITH HEADLINES IN PLACE...EXCEPT
UPGRADED ADVISORY TO A WARNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE BUFKIT
FORECASTS WERE ACTUALLY MOST IMPRESSIVE. WILL MONITOR
CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY COUNTIES...WHERE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ALSO PUSH
WARNING CRITERIA...BUT FOR NOW STAY WITH THE ADVISORY. ALL LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS MOVING IN ON SCHEDULE.
NAM12/RGEM SUPPORT HRRR FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS RAIN IN FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THERE THEN
WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK (EITHER LIGHTER RAIN OR NONE AT
ALL) BEHIND THIS...THEN A LINE OF PERHAPS HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...THIS COMES OUT TO
PERIOD OF RAIN...REFER TO GRIDS OR HRRR FOR MORE SPECIFICS. EXPECT
RAIN TO GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN .50 AND 1.00...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH EVERY WHERE BUT HERE...AS DOWNSLOPING
ROBS A PORTION OF OUR RAINFALL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL...THOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE BLACK RIVER
IS RUNNING HIGH...AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE TOO MUCH MORE THAN IS IN THE
FORECAST TO CAUSE ISSUES. NO FLOOD HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MID-MORNING AS SE WINDS MIX...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM RAIN WILL
OFFSET THIS...AND KEEP HIGHS FROM BREAKING TOO MUCH ABOVE THE 50
DEGREE MARK.
FOR TONIGHT...AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR STRONG LAKES LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
STEADY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. AFTER THIS...INCREASING SW
WINDS UP LAKE ERIE WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SHOWERY IN NATURE...BUT AS COLD AIR WORKS IN...RAIN MAY MIX WITH
SNOW IN WESTERN PORTIONS AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE GENERALLY SPARSE IN WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT MAY SEE MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NORTH OF LAKE HURON
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. ANY LINGERING COLD FRONTAL
RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...THOUGH INCREASING WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER SCATTERED AND LIGHT IN
NATURE...AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT MORE
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AS FOR PTYPE...BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BULK OF ANY
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF RAIN...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
ABOUT MID MORNING. ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER.
OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN DURING SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS HAS BEEN
MENTIONED HERE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES DURING SUNDAY...
WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 45-55 KNOT WINDS FROM
925-850 MB. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST ADVISORY-
CRITERIA WINDS ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CWA...WITH WARNING
CRITERIA GUSTS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS
FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
TO ROCHESTER...AND POSSIBLY ALSO EAST-NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WITH WIND HEADLINES ALREADY IN PLACE FOR TODAY'S SOUTHEAST FLOW
EVENT...WILL GENERALLY ELECT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL WIND
FLAGS FOR SUNDAY...EXCEPT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
THREAT FOR WARNING CRITERIA WINDS IS THE HIGHEST. WITHIN THIS LATTER
AREA...HAVE ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WARNING-CRITERIA WIND
GUSTS TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD HIGH WIND WATCH. WHILE THIS WILL
INTRODUCE A DOUBLE HEADLINE...AT THIS TIME I AM NOT COMFORTABLE NOT
HIGHLIGHTING WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT THAT IS
NOW ONLY A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AWAY FROM STARTING.
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...
WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWERS ALSO END WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
DIMINISHING MOISTURE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHERE A WESTERLY FLOW OF -10C AIR CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO
MAY MAINTAIN A COMBINATION OF SOME LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN SOME HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...WITH SOME
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ON MONDAY...THE NAM AND GFS NOW BOTH BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES...SHUNTING SUNDAY'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ANY
REMAINING PRECIP EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ENDING DURING THE
MORNING...WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED OTHERWISE. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR POSITION TO THE FRONT...BUT BRING RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH
AND INTO OUR AREA...WHICH LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OVERDONE.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST AND
THE TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS THAT STARTED YESTERDAY...
INDICATING POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OR LESS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DECENT WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT DEVELOPS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OHIO/PA DURING THE
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD BRING A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME RAIN TO MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PROMOTING A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A VERY WARM AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO +14C ON THE GFS AND
+12C ON THE ECMWF. SHOULD THESE TEMPS ALOFT VERIFY...HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE 70F CAN BE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER MODERATELY STRONG LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. COOLER AIR WILL THEN
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPS BACK DOWN TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL ALSO DIMINISH TOWARD WEEKS END.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 80 KTS WILL CROSS THE REGION...ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AT BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC AND BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z AT
ART. WHILE ALL OF THIS WILL NOT MIX DOWN...IT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODICALLY GUSTY WINDS OR WIND SHEAR. WINDIEST CONDITIONS AT
JHW...WHERE MIXING WILL BE BEST.
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM SW-
NE...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LOWER CIGS DUE TO THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW. GENERALLY HEDGE ON OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...BUT BRING MOST SITES DOWN TO MVFR IN RAIN AND CIGS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY COME IN
TWO ROUNDS...ONE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE JET...AND THE SECOND
WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT AND SURFACE TROF. THIS SECOND ROUND
WILL LIKELY BRING BRIEF BUT HEAVIER RAINFALL...WITH IFR-MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EXIT OF
THE LLJ...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF AS WELL. A BIT UNCERTAIN
IF CIGS WILL LINGER...AND AT WHAT LEVEL...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR-VFR AT MOST SITES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR TODAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN NATURE AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS...EXPECT GUSTS
TO 45 KTS ON LAKE ERIE...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL VARY BY LOCATION...WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UP ON ALL WATERS...EXCEPT A
SHORT LIVED GALE ON LAKE ERIE NEARSHORES.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH A BRIEF LULL ON THE WATERS. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...A STRONG SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON LAKE ERIE AND
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH COLDER AIR...AND WELL
ALIGNED WINDS...BETTER MIXING IS LIKELY. THIS WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON MOST WATERS...WITH A GOOD CHANCE AT GALES
ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH GALES
ALREADY UP...HEADLINE THAT FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE BRISK SW FLOW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>003-
010>014-020-021.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ004>006.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ030-042-043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LOZ044-045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJRHazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 4:00 PM EDT, 12 hours 36 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 400 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 NYZ004>008-162000- WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 400 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY PRODUCE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ001>003-010>014-020-021-162000- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON- ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY- 400 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND ADVISORY. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY PRODUCE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ019-085-162000- CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE- 400 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WARNING. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY PRODUCE MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FURTHER UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-162000- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 400 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-162000- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 400 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF HITCHCOCK
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 4:16 AM EDT | Gale Warning | BUF | 9 hr | |
| Apr 16, 4:16 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 9 hr | |
| Apr 16, 3:33 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Niagara and 2 more | 12 hr |
| Apr 16, 3:56 PM EDT | Gale Warning | BUF | 29 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Watches in New York, 2011Every high wind watch in 2011
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.