Gale Watch 8, NWS Buffalo, NY

194 
WHUS71 KBUF 150250
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

LEZ040-041-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-111215T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111215T2200Z-111216T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST
  THURSDAY. INCREASING TO 35 KNOT GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WAVES...4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT. 6 TO 9 FEET THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
  NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.111215T0500Z-111215T2200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111215T2200Z-111216T1200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST
  THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOT GALES THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042-043-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.111215T0600Z-111216T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEST TO
  35 KNOT GALES THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BUILDING TO 5
  TO 8 FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.111215T0300Z-111216T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. 

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BUILDING TO 7 TO 10
  FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-111216T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THEN BECOMING
  SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING TO 35 KNOT GALES
  THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.111215T0600Z-111216T0300Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
950 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS...POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO WEST 35
  KNOT GALES THURSDAY EVENING.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

782 
WHUS71 KBUF 150859
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

LOZ042>045-151700-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-111216T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0016.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
359 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-111216T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0016.111215T2100Z-111216T1100Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
359 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOT GALES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-040-041-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-111215T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0016.111215T2100Z-111216T1100Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111215T2200Z-111216T1200Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
359 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOT GALES. 

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0008.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0016.111216T0300Z-111216T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
359 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

* WINDS...WEST TO 40 KNOT GALES. 

* WAVES...11 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-151700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0107.000000T0000Z-111216T1100Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
359 AM EST THU DEC 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EST WED DEC 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL LAKES WITH A BREAD
AREA OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT. THE STEADIER RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO HOLD STEADY...THEN RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TRAILING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE PLAIN COULD
REACH THE LOWER 50S BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA AT MID
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND MOISTEN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

TONIGHT...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NEW YORK. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
LIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 1.2 INCHES
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS QPF FIELDS
SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE LULL IN THE STEADIER SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

THE LATEST STABILITY INDICES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PREVALENT ALONG THE NOSE
OF 850MB WARM ADVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND EXPECT TO SEE THIS AREA
MOVE INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE EVENING AND ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO
PLAIN AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.

RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE A
COLDER TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALONG THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL COME RIGHT UP
FRONT...AS A PROGRESSIVE H5 RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROAD LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS CHANGE WILL BE INITIATED BY A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THE ENSUING CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL FINALLY DROP OUR TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL MID DECEMBER VALUES AFTER A DAY OF 50 DEG WEATHER.
THE DETAILS...

A DEEPENING 'CUTTER' LOW JUST NORTH OF THE SOO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LOW
LEVEL FORCING SUPPLIED BY THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE VERY
STRONG JET DYNAMICS OF A 140KT H25 JET. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL FOCUS THE ACTIVITY INTO SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY SHOWERS.
PWAT VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE OVER AN INCH...WHICH AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS NEARLY 3 STD ABV NORMAL (~4 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE ON
THIS CALENDER DATE).

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY MORNING ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE IN
THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF SOME ELEVATED CAPE.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF SOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WILL INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR MORNING
THUNDER. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...WILL ALSO INSERT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY SHOWERS WITH THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS IS NOT TO SAY
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY HYDROLOGIC ISSUES THOUGH...AS BASIN AVERAGE
QPF WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO A QUARTER INCH.
AGAIN...MOST OF THIS WILL COME DURING THE MORNING.

DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SWEEP IN
BEHIND THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND THIS WILL SERIOUSLY CUT BACK ON
THE QPF GENERATED BY ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SUNNY BREAKS OPEN UP...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THIS COMING
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE BREAKS WILL BE AIDED BY GUSTY
WINDS THAT WILL WORK DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...24 HOURS AGO I WAS CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. GUIDANCE
PACKAGES FROM THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAS SINCE VEERED THE FORECAST
WINDS TO MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL NOT GO NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE FORECAST
WINDS AS I DID YESTERDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...DESPITE A STRONG
INVERSION BASED JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SFC...WILL AIM
RATHER HIGH ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE HILL TOPS. ELEVATED TERRAIN OVER
1500 FT WILL BE STICKING UP INTO THIS INVERSION...SO THOSE SITES MAY
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE.

TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE SOME
15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL...AS READINGS WILL START OFF IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...THE DAYTIME HIGH
SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE LUNCHTIME WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON.

A DEEP COLD ADVECTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING OFF FROM NEAR ZERO C
IN THE EVENING TO ABOUT -8C BY DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS MAY SOUND LIKE
THE MAKINGS FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LACKING MOISTURE IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF -12
TO -18C. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP BELOW 10K FT...SO
CONVECTIVE DEPTH WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE.

RATHER THAN LOOKING AT THE MESOSCALE...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT AN
ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPLY ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT AGAIN...WITHOUT A FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AREA
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

IT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY ON FRIDAY AS DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE AND A WEALTH OF DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAIR WEATHER GIANT WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE
TO THE BULK OF OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES/
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES ON A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW.

THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH STILL IN COMPLETE CONTROL
FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...AND IS
USUALLY THE CASE...THIS WILL DOWNSCALE INTO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THIS GENERAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE AT ODDS OVER
THE DETAILS.

AT THE CENTER OF THE DEBATE IS WHETHER THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT FAST ENOUGH TO PHASE WITH A PASSING
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND
DEPICTS A WEAKENING SRN BRANCH CUTOFF THAT OPENS UP AND PASSES
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF (AND AT LEAST A QUARTER OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) PHASE
THE TWO FEATURES TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DEEP SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER SOLUTION IS
'WARMER' FOR OUR REGION.

WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...WHICH HAPPENS
TO LINE UP CLOSER TO OUR CONTINUITY THAN THE GFS. AS SUCH...

RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL EASE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKEIS OVER OUR REGION...BUT NO MEASUREABLE
PCPN IS EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY WHILE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE 40S WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTING FOR ONE LAST DAY.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONATRIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THIS PCPN THOUGH SHOULD BE IN LIQUID
FORM.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING UP TO
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A LOW AMPITUDE PACIFIC FLOW SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE IS ALSO AN IMPORTANT
CHANGE THAT IS NOTED IN THESE PACKAGES. THAT IS...THE FORECAST OF
DEEPENING COLD AIR OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA. AS NOTED IN YESTERDAYS
DISCUSSION...THE 'BANKING' OF COLD AIR OVER SIBERIA COULD EVENTUALLY
OFFER THE CHANCE FOR THE COLD AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE POLE
INTO NORTHERN CANADA...AND EVENTUALLY...TO THE UNITED STATES.

THIS POLAR TRAJECTORY IS NEEDED TO KEEP AIR MODIFICATION TO A
MINIMUM. THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS OR SO AS
COLD AIRMASSES OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BY
THE MARITIME ENVIRONMENT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BEFORE REACHING
NORTH AMERICA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SHOWERS FORMING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREAD TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE
ONSET OF THE PCPN AS THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN UNSATURATED...AIDED BY
SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW...HERE EXPECT
CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO LOWER GRADUALLY TO MVFR.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PREVENT THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER 00Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
ADVANCES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THEN TO QUEBEC
PROVINCE FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALONG THE NEARSHORES OF BOTH LAKES AND ALONG THE
RIVERS. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AS MODERATELY
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...AND WILL CARRY A GALE WATCH TO COVER THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
GALE WARNINGS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042-043.
         GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
         FOR LOZ030-042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
605 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

NYZ001>008-010-011-013-014-151115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
605 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-019>021-085-151115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
605 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN (GENERALLY ABOVE 1500 FT) LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-151115-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
605 AM EST WED DEC 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH