Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Burlington, VT

563 
WGUS71 KBTV 070038
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
738 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NYC019-031-070545-
/O.CON.KBTV.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-
738 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM EST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL CLINTON AND NORTH CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK...

AT 726 PM EST...LOCAL LAW EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED 
THE ICE JAM HAS MOVED THROUGH JAY AND MOST OF THE ICE IS MOVING 
TOWARD CLINTONVILLE. ALSO...25 HOMES HAVE BEEN EVACUATED IN THE 
JERSEY AREA OF AUSABLE FORKS. A SHELTER HAS BEEN SET UP IN JAY. 

THE RIVER GAGE ON THE EAST BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER AT AUSABLE 
FORKS IS NEAR 9.0 FEET...WHICH IS 2 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CLINTONVILLE...PORT KENT...KEESEVILLE AND JAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ICE JAMS ARE VERY UNPREDICTABLE AND CAN BREAK UP...MOVE...AND JAM
AGAIN VERY QUICKLY. WATER BACKING UP BEHIND THE JAM CAN FLOOD AREAS
UNDER DEEP WATER WITH SURPRISING SPEED. FAVORED ICE JAM LOCATIONS ARE
WHERE A RIVER BENDS OR SLOWS...AT BRIDGE ABUTMENTS...OR NEAR
ISLANDS...SANDBARS AND OTHER OBSTRUCTIONS TO FLOW.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4455 7368 4458 7342 4442 7342 4418 7366
      4429 7397

$$

364 
WGUS71 KBTV 070340
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NYC019-031-070348-
/O.CAN.KBTV.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-110307T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESSEX NY-CLINTON NY-
1040 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
CLINTON AND NORTH CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

THE ICE JAM AT AUSABLE FORKS HAS RELEASED DOWNSTREAM TO KEESEVILLE. 
PER CLINTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS...THERE ARE NO 
CURRENT ROAD CLOSURES OR SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ICE JAM DOWNSTREAM AT KEESEVILLE. PREVIOUSLY CLOSED ROADS HAVE BEEN
REOPENED. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4455 7368 4458 7342 4442 7342 4418 7366
      4429 7397

$$

BANACOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 PM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF VERMONT THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND BE NEAR CAPE COD BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND HEADS FOR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 356 PM EST SUNDAY...MAJOR STORM WILL IMPACT THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO
TWO FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. AREAS OF
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS WILL BE THE OTHER CONCERN
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TAKING A LITTLE
LONGER TO MAKE INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREENS THAN IT DID OVER
WESTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING. BUT THOSE LOCATIONS STILL
EXPERIENCING RAIN WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION THEN
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG
SHORTWAVE ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOW
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...REACHING VICINITY OF NYC
AROUND 06Z...AND THEN CAPE COD BY 12Z MONDAY. 700 MB BECOMES
CLOSED THIS EVENING AND LIFTS ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BAND OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD TONIGHT...AND THIS COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ALL
MODELS INDICATING OVER AN INCH OF QPF TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER ST LWR
VLY...WHICH WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT MSTR AND
FORCING. GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD OVERNIGHT WHEN RATES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN
EXPECTED. AMOUNTS WILL BE TEMPERED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS DUE
PROLONGED MIXING. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALSO IN ST LWR VLY AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SURFACE LOW HEADS THROUGH THE GULF
OF MAINE. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE PM.
MAX TEMPS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DIMINISHING NORTHERLY BREEZES. MIN TEMPS A LITTLE CHILLY FOR EARLY
MARCH...RANGNING FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WL PROVIDE THE CWA WITH
DRY AND QUIET WX FOR WEDS...WHILE OUR NEXT FULL LATITUDE MID/UPPER
LVL TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS. ONCE AGAIN...THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WHICH WL IMPACT OUR CWA FROM
THURS THRU FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW 1ST SFC WAVE OF LOW PRES MOVING
FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHILE POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HELPS TO DEVELOP SECONDARY LOW PRES ACRS
THE SE CONUS ON THURS AFTN. THIS DEEP AND STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROF WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
ANOTHER MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT POSSIBLE. ONCE
AGAIN...COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILES AND AMOUNT OF PHASING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WL MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED PTPYE FCST. ATTM
WL MENTION LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW...BUT LATEST TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR A WARMER SOLUTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN.
DEFINITELY STAY TUNED. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME CLRING AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES FROM 18Z TODAY
THRU 12Z MONDAY. CRNT RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACRS
MSS/SLK/PBG AND BTV...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AND FRNT PUSHING THRU
MPV ATTM. RUT CONTS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...BUT
FROPA WL OCCUR BY 19Z...WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE NW AND TEMPS
QUICKLY FALLING ALONG WITH CIGS/VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z.
TONIGHT...BOTH RUC13 AND NAM12 SHOW TREMENDOUS 850 TO 700MB FGEN
FORCING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN TAF SITES WITH STRONG/DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTION...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW. VIS
WL BE BLW 1/4SM AT BTV/MPV FOR MOST OF THE EVENING BTWN 02Z-
10Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HR. MEANWHILE...AT
MSS IMPROVING CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT WL BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WL INCREASE CIGS/VIS ABOVE IFR
CONDITIONS BY 01Z TONIGHT...WITH MAIN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
12Z MONDAY AT MSS. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS
OUR SLK/PBG/BTV/RUT/MPV CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR
BY 18Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF
WITH CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z THURSDAY ONWARD...VFR TRENDING MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT PUSH EAST
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1230 PM EST SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT CHANGES TO SNOW. RAPID RISES ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS
AND RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT HAS RESULTED IN ICE
BREAK UPS AND SOME ICE JAMS TO DEVELOP. SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS
HAVE SHOWN 1 TO 4 FOOT RISES...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL
TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN VERMONT...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
ADIRIONDACKS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ001>009-
     016>018.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR VTZ010>012-019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ028>031-034-
     035.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...TABER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087-070815-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
313 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ028-035-VTZ001>003-005-006-009-016>018-070815-
EASTERN CLINTON-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
313 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VTZ010>012-019-070815-
ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND-
313 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VTZ004-007-008-070815-
ESSEX-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-
313 AM EST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VERMONT AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.