River Flood Warning 20, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

434 
WGUS81 KBOX 111133
FLSBOX


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011




...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS..
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 
  ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER 
  COUNTIES 
  CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND NORFOLK COUNTIES 

MOST RIVERS WERE RECEDING OR HOLDING STEADY THIS FRIDAY MORNING...EXCEPT
FOR THE FARMINGTON RIVER IN UNIONVILLE WHICH IS RISING AND EXPECTED TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. NEW RAINFALL OF ABOUT AN INCH OVER THE
EASTERN BASINS AND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN BASINS WILL CAUSE
SOME RIVERS TO GO BACK INTO MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE FARMINGTON
RIVER...HOWEVER...MODERATE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AT BOTH
SIMSBURY AND UNIONVILLE. A SHORTER PERIOD OF 3 TO 6 HOURS OF HEAVIER RAIN
WILL FALL ACROSS THE BASINS EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION 
IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR 
EARLIER IF NEEDED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN  
RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS.  SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN 
IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.



&&

CTC003-007-112333-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.110308T0133Z.110309T0545Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD.
* AT  5:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.3 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM HARTFORD THROUGH WETHERSFIELD AND 
  GLASTONBURY...PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION.  THIS WILL 
  AFFECT SEVERAL RIVERSIDE ROADWAYS AS WELL AS SEVERAL PARK AND 
  RECREATIONAL FACILITIES.

$$

CTC003-007-112332-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDDC3.1.ER.110308T0322Z.110309T1330Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN.
* AT  5:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM WETHERSFIELD AND GLASTONBURY DOWNSTREAM 
  THROUGH CROMWELL...MIDDLETOWN AND PORTLAND.  BOATING INTERESTS 
  SHOULD PREPARE FOR A PERIOD OF SWIFT RIVER FLOWS.

$$

CTC003-112332-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0020.110311T1620Z-110312T2010Z/
/UNVC3.1.ER.110311T1620Z.110312T0000Z.110312T1410Z.NO/
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  6:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS 
  MEADOWS STREET IN THE "MEADOWS" SECTION OF FARMINGTON.  SOME 
  LOWLYING AREAS ALONG ROUTE 4 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

$$

CTC003-112332-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SIMC3.2.ER.110307T1131Z.110313T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY.
* AT  5:46 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.7 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
  AND RESIDENCES AFFECTED.  EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG VARIOUS 
  ROADS IN AVON AND SIMSBURY...INCLUDING RIVERSIDE ROAD IN SIMSBURY. 
  FLOODING ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT LOW LYING SECTIONS OF BLOOMFIELD AND
  EAST GRANBY. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
  OFFICIALS AND OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

MAC017-027-112332-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MAYM3.2.ER.110307T2222Z.110313T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD.
* AT  6:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 6.0 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 
  ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING SECTIONS 
  ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MAYNARD...HUDSON AND CONCORD.
  WATER MAY APPROACH HOMES ALONG THE RIVER AND MAY FORCE SEVERAL 
  LOCALIZED ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

MAC017-021-112332-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DOVM3.1.ER.110308T1915Z.110312T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
633 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER.
* AT  5:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 5.6 FEET BY AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT A FEW HOMES IN NEEDHAM 
  ALONG FISHER STREET...AS WELL AS A PORTION OF ROUTE 109 AT THE 
  MEDFIELD - MILLIS LINE.  SOME FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ON THE SOUTH 
  NATICK/WELLESLEY LINE ALONG RIVER STREET.

$$

DUNHAM

296 
WGUS81 KBOX 111636
FLSBOX

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS..
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 
  ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER 
  COUNTIES 
  CONCORD RIVER AT LOWELL AFFECTING MIDDLESEX COUNTY 
  CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND NORFOLK COUNTIES 

RAINFALL COMBINED WITH PREVIOUSLY HIGH RIVER FLOWS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION 
IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR 
EARLIER IF NEEDED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN  
RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS.  SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN 
IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.

&&

CTC003-120436-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-110312T1630Z/
/UNVC3.1.ER.110311T1630Z.110312T0000Z.110312T1030Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE.
* AT 11:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 13.7 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS 
  MEADOWS STREET IN THE "MEADOWS" SECTION OF FARMINGTON.  SOME 
  LOWLYING AREAS ALONG ROUTE 4 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

$$

CTC003-007-120436-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.110308T0133Z.110309T0545Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD.
* AT 10:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.5 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS BELOW HARTFORD 
  IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE 
  PROTECTION.  FLOODING ALSO AFFECTS LOW LYING AREAS UPSTREAM OF 
  HARTFORD...INCLUDING A PORTION OF WINDSOR WHERE THE FARMINGTON 
  RIVER EMPTIES INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.  IN ADDITION...SWIFT 
  RIVER FLOWS MAY DISRUPT SOME CROSS RIVER FERRY SERVICES.

$$

CTC003-007-120436-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDDC3.1.ER.110308T0322Z.110309T1330Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN.
* AT 10:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS OF
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM WETHERSFIELD AND GLASTONBURY DOWNSTREAM 
  THROUGH CROMWELL...MIDDLETOWN AND PORTLAND.  BOATING INTERESTS 
  SHOULD PREPARE FOR A PERIOD OF SWIFT RIVER FLOWS.

$$

CTC003-120436-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SIMC3.2.ER.110307T1131Z.110312T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY.
* AT 10:46 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 15.9 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING OCCURS WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
  AND RESIDENCES AFFECTED.  EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG VARIOUS 
  ROADS IN AVON AND SIMSBURY...INCLUDING RIVERSIDE ROAD IN SIMSBURY. 
  FLOODING ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT LOW LYING SECTIONS OF BLOOMFIELD AND
  EAST GRANBY. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
  OFFICIALS AND OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

MAC017-027-120436-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MAYM3.2.ER.110307T2222Z.110313T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD.
* AT 11:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 6.2 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL 
  RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING SECTIONS 
  ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MAYNARD...HUDSON AND CONCORD.
  WATER MAY APPROACH HOMES ALONG THE RIVER AND MAY FORCE SEVERAL 
  LOCALIZED ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

MAC017-120436-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0021.110311T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/LCNM3.1.ER.110311T2100Z.110313T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONCORD RIVER AT LOWELL.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  8:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 8.4 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 
  ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 8.5 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE 
  CONCORD RIVER.  THIS INCLUDES HOMES ON JOINERS AND CLARK COURTS AND
  MERRILL STREET IN LOWELL.  IT ALSO INCLUDES SOME RESIDENCES IN 
  BILLERICA ALONG PERSHING STREET...STONEY DRIVE...AND ON ELSIE 
  AVENUE OFF RIVER STREET.

$$

MAC017-021-120436-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DOVM3.1.ER.110308T1915Z.110312T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER.
* AT 10:45 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 5.6 FEET BY THIS 
  EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT A FEW HOMES IN NEEDHAM 
  ALONG FISHER STREET...AS WELL AS A PORTION OF ROUTE 109 AT THE 
  MEDFIELD - MILLIS LINE.  SOME FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ON THE SOUTH 
  NATICK/WELLESLEY LINE ALONG RIVER STREET.

$$

232 
WGUS81 KBOX 112233
FLSBOX


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011



...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...
 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...
 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS..
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND WORCESTER 
  COUNTIES 
  CONCORD RIVER AT LOWELL AFFECTING MIDDLESEX COUNTY 
  CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AFFECTING MIDDLESEX AND NORFOLK COUNTIES 

RAINFALL AND SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT HAS CAUSED NEW RISES IN MANY
AREA RIVERS. THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
WILL CREST VERY NEAR THE MODERATE FLOOD THRESHOLD. THE ASSABET
RIVER AT MAYNARD MAY ALSO APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD. THE REST OF THE
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. SEVERAL OF THE RIVERS WILL NOT
CREST UNTIL SATURDAY OR EVEN SUNDAY. THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT
MIDDLETOWN AND THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT NEW
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION 
IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR 
EARLIER IF NEEDED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN  
RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS.  SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN 
IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.



&&

CTC003-112303-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-110312T1630Z/
/UNVC3.1.ER.110311T1716Z.110311T1900Z.110311T2011Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE.
* AT  4:31 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 3:11 PM FRIDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 10.4 FEET BY
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 12.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS ALONG THE 
  RIVER IS EXPECTED...AND MAY INCLUDE LOWEST LYING HOMES AND 
  BUSINESSES ALONG ROUTE 4.

$$

CTC003-121033-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110314T0300Z/
/SIMC3.2.ER.110307T1131Z.110312T1800Z.110313T2100Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY.
* AT  4:46 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.0 FEET BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS WITH NUMEROUS
  ROADS AND RESIDENCES AFFECTED.  EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG
  VARIOUS ROADS IN AVON AND SIMSBURY...INCLUDING RIVERSIDE ROAD IN
  SIMSBURY. FLOODING ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT LOW LYING SECTIONS OF
  BLOOMFIELD AND EAST GRANBY. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY
  MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

CTC003-007-121033-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.110308T0133Z.110309T0545Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD.
* AT  4:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.5 FEET BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS BELOW HARTFORD 
  IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE 
  PROTECTION.  FLOODING ALSO AFFECTS LOW LYING AREAS UPSTREAM OF 
  HARTFORD...INCLUDING A PORTION OF WINDSOR WHERE THE FARMINGTON 
  RIVER EMPTIES INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER.  IN ADDITION...SWIFT 
  RIVER FLOWS MAY DISRUPT SOME CROSS RIVER FERRY SERVICES.

$$

CTC003-007-121033-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDDC3.1.ER.110308T0322Z.110309T1330Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN.
* AT  5:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY 
  SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN LOW LYING SECTIONS
  OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM WETHERSFIELD AND GLASTONBURY
  DOWNSTREAM THROUGH CROMWELL...MIDDLETOWN AND PORTLAND.  BOATING
  INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SWIFT RIVER
  FLOWS.

$$

MAC017-027-121033-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MAYM3.1.ER.110307T2222Z.110313T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD.
* AT  4:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 6.0 FEET OR JUST SHY OF MODERATE FLOODING BY SUNDAY
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING SECTIONS 
  ALONG THE RIVER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MAYNARD...HUDSON AND
  CONCORD. WATER MAY APPROACH HOMES ALONG THE RIVER AND MAY FORCE
  SEVERAL LOCALIZED ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

MAC017-121033-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LCNM3.1.ER.110312T0632Z.110313T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONCORD RIVER AT LOWELL.
* AT  4:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 8.3 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.5 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE 
  CONCORD RIVER.  THIS INCLUDES HOMES ON JOINERS AND CLARK COURTS
  AND MERRILL STREET IN LOWELL.  IT ALSO INCLUDES SOME RESIDENCES IN 
  BILLERICA ALONG PERSHING STREET...STONEY DRIVE...AND ON ELSIE 
  AVENUE OFF RIVER STREET.

$$

MAC017-021-121033-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DOVM3.1.ER.110308T1915Z.110312T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
533 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER.
* AT  4:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 5.6 FEET BY THIS 
  EVENING AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT A FEW HOMES IN NEEDHAM 
  ALONG FISHER STREET...AS WELL AS A PORTION OF ROUTE 109 AT THE 
  MEDFIELD - MILLIS LINE.  SOME FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ON THE SOUTH 
  NATICK/WELLESLEY LINE ALONG RIVER STREET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURES TO THE NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW IN TOW WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION REMAINING MILD AND DRY. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO PRECEDE COOLER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED
BY WEEKS END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT IR IMG SUGGESTS STORM SYSTEM EFFECTING MID ATLANTIC TO S
NEW ENGLAND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF OCCLUSION. WV HAS UPPER
LVL CUTOFF JUST ABOUT CENTERED OVER SFC LOW ATTM. AS SUCH HAVE
SHOWN A WEAKENING OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AS CYCLOGENESIS BECOMES
ENHANCED IN THE AREA OF KBUF AND ENERGY BECOMES MORE FOCUSED W OF
THE REGION. SFC PRES CHANGES ON THE MSAS SUGGESTING FLOW HAS TAKEN
ON A STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WHICH PUTS IT MORE PARALLEL TO
THERMAL WIND...REDUCING LLVL WAA. MUCH OF THE FORCING NOW CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUSION FORMING JUST S OF SFC LOW. WV ALSO
SUGGESTS CUTOFF IS REASONABLY PROGRESSIVE...AND IS LIFTING NE WITH
TIME AS SHORTWAVE CUTS UNDERNEATH. EXPECT ANY REMAINING ISENTROPIC
PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND REMAIN WELL E OF THE ADVANCING OCCLUSION
THIS MORNING.

LATEST RUNS OF NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION OF ELY
MOVING LLJ AND OCCLUSION TODAY...WHILE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT
AND NOW ALL MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. EXPECT
MOISTURE WITH THE LLJ AND E EXTENT OF PRECIP TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
W PORTIONS OF THE FA BY 12Z. HPC 6 HR QPF HAS SHOWN THIS
PROGRESSION NICELY...SO USED IT AS A BASE FOR QPF. FINAL QPF
TOTALS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES WHERE ESE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUSION SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AS IT MOVES IN. ALSO DO EXPECT
THERE TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY POCKETS OF +RA POSSIBLE IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION. WHILE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON INDEX VALUES...A SMALL
POCKET OF POS BUOYANCY IS STILL SEEN WITH LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 6
DEG C JUST ABOVE H925 INVERSION. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
LOCALIZED TOTALS...BUT STILL EXPECTING 1.5 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY
OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE BIRKSHIRES...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 1 INCH
OVER THE E COAST. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES.

TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...JUST MINOR UPDATES WITH NEWEST DATA. ADJUSTED POPS TO
FOLLOW TIMING OF THE FROPA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE NEARLY CLEAR OF
KBOS BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SFC LOW TO REMAIN WELL WNW OF THE REGION BEFORE SLOWING
ITS PROGRESSION INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. WARM OCCLUSION MOVING E
OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT IS VERY ROBUST...WITH DECENT
SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...DECENT DRY SLOT SUGGESTED ON LATEST WV IMG AND
MOST GUIDANCE...THEREFORE WITH WARM MOIST LLVLS CANNOT RULE OUT
POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
REMAIN BEHIND THE FROPA... AND HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF HIGHEST
POPS OUT OF THE FA EARLY...BUT EXPECT THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE
OVER BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY PRECIP CHANCES
REMAINING IN WEAK MID LVL CAA OVER EXTREME N PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOIST LAYER IN LOWEST LVLS HANGS ON ACROSS
ERN AND NRN AREAS...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR CLOUD
COVER...SUGGESTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WHERE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED MORE CLEARING. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY LATEST
RGEM...WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES BL MOISTURE AND REMAINING SC BEHIND
EXITING SYSTEMS WELL. IN ANY CASE...UPPER CUTOFF SHOULD KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DUE TO THE WARM OCCLUDED NATURE OF THE FROPA LATE FRI...NOT
EXPECTING THE TYPICAL RAPID TRANSITION TO NW FLOW COMMON BEHIND
BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS. DO EXPECT A MORE CONTINENTAL COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS HOWEVER...WITH COOL AIR BEING DRAWN S ALOFT BEHIND THE
SLOWLY EXITING CUTOFF. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL STILL FALL GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO MID 30S TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
COOL SPOTS WHERE SKIES ARE ALLOWED TO CLEAR BEFORE SUNUP. TEMPS
DWPTS WERE GENERALLY A BLEND OF MAV AND MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAIN POINTS:
- SECONDARY DISTURBANCE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ATTENDANT ARCTIC FRONT
- HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
- WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND MIDWEEK?
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL WET WEATHER SYSTEM BY WEEKS END.

DISCUSSION:

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE THRU THE NRN BRANCH EJECTS EWD THRU THE GRT
LKS RGN AND ROTATES IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN WAVE ACROSS THE
QUEBEC/ONTARIO PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN AN OPPORTUNITY PRESENTS ITSELF
FOR A BRIEF PD OF RIDGING AND WAA ALOFT ACCOMPANIED WITH W/SWLY
LOW-MID LVL FLOW...COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME CLEARING. THEREAFTER
CAA WILL PREVAIL AND LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN
LENDING TO SFC SW FLOW WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS. WILL SEE HIGHS RANGE
FROM UPR 40S TO LOW 50S...COOLER ALONG THE SHORE...AND TO THE NW
WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS. LOWS RANGING FROM LOW TO UPPER
30S W TO E. WITH DISTURBANCE PRIMARILY NW OF FCST RGN COUPLED WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS...INCLUDING OROGRAPHIC FORCING...HAVE SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS ALONG THE BERKSHIRES FOR SHOWERS. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT
AS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS MORE CONTINENTAL IN NATURE AND MOISTURE
STARVED.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
THIRD DISTURBANCE THRU THE NRN BRANCH PROVIDES THE FINAL PUSH FOR
THE ONSET OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. PRECEDING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PRESS
THRU THE RGN DURING THE MORNING RESULTING IN SW FLOW REVERTING NWLY
WITH CONTINUED GUST POTENTIAL AS LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
STEEP. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER...MORESO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
WHERE SLGT CHC POPS RETAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES ALONG THE BERKSHIRES. POTENTIAL FOR A
NON-DIURNAL TREND THRU THE DAY SHOULD CLOUDS REALLY SOCK THE
RGN...OTHERWISE PRESENT THINKING IS FOR TEMPS TO WARM UNDER THE
MARCH SUN...YET A FEW DEGREES COOLER FROM SATURDAY HIGHS. HAVE GONE
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON MINS WITH MID TEENS FOR HIGHER ELEV TO THE NW
AND LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. CLEARING SKIES LIKELY TO PROCEED INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH ATTENDANT COLDER AIR. CLEAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OUT OF THE NW
SLOWLY VEERING OUT OF THE SE INTO TUESDAY. NOCTURNAL COOLING EVENT
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS SW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT LENDING FOR WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF MOIST
AIR. DRY FCST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MDL SOLNS BEGINNING TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH PRESSURE SLINKING SEWD AND
RETAINING A RIDGE THRU THE SERN CONUS. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT
THE PROGRESSION AND LOCATION OF DISTURBANCES THRU THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. SW FLOW ALOFT WITH S/SW FLOW
AT THE SFC WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WAA PROCESSES AHEAD OF DISTURBANCES
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMING TREND. THIS WILL ALSO SET
UP A WARM AIR PROTRUSION ALOFT LENDING TO A SFC INVERSION AND
WEAKENED OUTCOMES FOR WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC. POTENTIAL FOR AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
USHERING POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP. WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND
LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW.

END OF THE WEEK...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROUGH SYSTEM TO PRESS EWD
INTO THE FCST RGN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A NRN
OUTLIER WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT MORESO TO THE GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE. OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST OUT OF THE SOLNS. HAVE
GONE WITH SLGT POPS FOR THE FAR EXTENDED PERIOD MAINTAINING A
WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH COLDER AIR IN TOW AS IT MOVES
THRU AND OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MEDIUM...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

EARLY THIS MORNING...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING OCCLUSION HAS ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF A RISE TO MVFR AT
SOME TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT THESE WILL AGAIN DECLINE SUCH THAT ALL
TERMINALS REMAIN IN IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME -RA WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RA TO BEGIN MOVING E WITH TIME DURING
DAYBREAK...EFFECTING TERMINALS W OF ORH. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT IFR WILL DOMINATE BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS.  WINDS ESE 10 TO 15 KTS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING. A WARM OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH POCKETS OF MOD
RA FROM W TO E INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT FOLLOWING THE
OCCLUSION CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OVER W TERMINALS
FIRST...WITH MOSTLY IFR ACROSS E. WINDS GENERALLY S AT OR AROUND
10 KTS...SHIFTING TO MORE SW AFTER FROPA.

TONIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO START...WITH A FEW
REMAINING IFR CONDITIONS E...THEN EXPECT A RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT AROUND 0000L. EXPECT THE MOST RAPID
INCREASE IN CONDITIONS TO BE FOLLOWING A WARM OCCLUSION MOVING E OF
THE AREA. VFR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS
SSW AT AROUND 10 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECLINE AGAIN TO MVFR AS SLOW MOVING
OCCLUSION MOVES E FROM NY STATE. VSBYS AND CIGS REMAIN IFR THROUGH
DAY TODAY UNTIL AFTER FROPA LATE. EXPECT A RAPID LIFT FROM IFR TO
MVFR THEN VFR AROUND MIDNIGHT LOCAL. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
BE JUST PRIOR TO FROPA AROUND MID DAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
BEGIN GENERALLY E...SHIFT TO SLY AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO MORE SW AFTER FROPA. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
10 TO 15 KTS...SLY WIND SHEAR A THREAT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. VFR TO PREVAIL BUT
POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NW TERMINALS. CHC PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES WITH POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS SHALL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SW GUSTING AT TIMES AROUND 25KTS...
STRONGER MORESO FOR SHORELINE TERMINALS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OUT OF THE NW
SHIFTING OUT OF THE S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...
WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THROUGH THE DAY. MAY
BRIEFLY GUST TO 35 KTS JUST PRIOR TO APPROACHING OCCLUSION. EXPECT
VSBYS TO BE REDUCED IN FG. SEAS REMAIN WELL ELEVATED IN SWELL.

TONIGHT...
SLOW MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS GUST
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THEN DIMINISH BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...EXPECT GUSTS TO
REMAIN AROUND SCA CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED WELL ABOVE SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT. MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS FROM CAPE
COD TO MONTAUK. SEAS WILL RUN FROM 6-10 FEET...HIGHEST WELL
OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS AND SEAS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 5 FT
ON THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
LATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT OVER MOST WATERS...BUT FORECAST
TO LINGER AT 5-6 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA STILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...HOWEVER MOST OF THESE ARE TYPICALLY SLOW RESPONSE. QPF
TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 0.3 ACROSS EXTREME W
PORTIONS OF THE FA...TO ONLY ABOUT 0.1 OVER THE NE. WITH PRECIP
BECOMING MORE CENTRALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE LLJ AND OCCLUSION OVER
ERN NY STATE...QPF TOTALS HAVE BEEN AS MUCH AS 1.0 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING 0.75 OR SO. MODELS STILL
SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LLJ IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKENS SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. HPC HAS BEEN HANDLING
TOTALS FAIRLY WELL SO FAR...SO WILL BASE QPF OFF THIS WITH SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. TOTALS LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF ERN BIRKSHIRES...AND
WORCESTER HILLS. WITH TOTALS JUST HIGHER IF NOT SIMILAR...STILL
EXPECTING SOME OF THE SLOW RESPONSE RIVERS THAT REMAIN ELEVATED TO
RETURN TO FLOOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE CT BASIN. CRITICAL RIVERS
WILL BE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH BULK OF QPF STILL
YET TO FALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG RISES IN THE
MERRIMACK...CHARLES...BLACKSTONE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IN
THESE AREAS. THE CT BASIN IN CT WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL UPGRADES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MANY OF THESE HAVE
WARNINGS ALREADY OUTSTANDING WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FLOOD STAGE
BEING RELEASED BASED OFF CURRENT FORECASTS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DOODY/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...DOODY/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
415 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-120915-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
415 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ005>007-013>024-NHZ012-RIZ001>008-120915-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
415 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-120915-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
415 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.