Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
354 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

.UPDATE...TO INCLUDE PRELIMINARY NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  WE DID UPDATE THE POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS A FEW CELLS HAVE POPPED UP RIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE OF AXIS OF MINIMUM PW'S.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IS NOT GOING COMPLETELY AWAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...IT
DOES WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY.  THIS SUBTROPIC RIDGE IS SEPARATING
THE WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BOTH THE NAM AND SREF ARE FAIRLY WET OVER
ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF STAY FAIRLY BONE
DRY.  THERE IS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER GEORGIA TODAY...SO THE WET
WEATHER IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY.  EVEN THE DRY GFS INCREASES THE PW'S
OVER ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.  AM LEANING TOWARD AT LEAST CLIMO TYPE OF
POP'S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

WITH THE RIDGE BEING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY
MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES OUR MAIN FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.  SO...NOT ONLY IS THERE THE DAYTIME HEATING FACTOR...BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PROPAGATE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...GOING TO KEEP ROLLING OUT MAX TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

03

AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
MINIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOCATED OVER THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...STILL INCLUDED CB IN MOST TAFS JUST IN CASE.  DO HAVE
CONCERN THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA COULD LEAD
TO A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM IN THE ANB AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DETERMINING WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CHALLENGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT WIND FIELD AND THE CENTER OF A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RIGHT
OVER ALABAMA.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     66  96  68  95  68 /  10  30  10  30  20
ANNISTON    68  96  68  95  68 /  10  30  10  30  20
BIRMINGHAM  71  95  72  96  72 /  10  30  10  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  67  97  68  97  67 /  10  30  10  30  20
CALERA      69  95  69  95  69 /  10  30  10  30  20
AUBURN      70  95  69  94  69 /  10  30  10  30  20
MONTGOMERY  68  96  68  95  69 /  10  30  10  30  20
TROY        66  95  66  94  67 /  10  30  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
146 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-101045-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
146 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
521 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

ALZ047-092300-
LEE AL-
521 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LEE COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 521 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLEECKER...OR 5 MILES WEST OF SMITHS...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BLEECKER...
  GRIFFEN MILL...
  BEAUREGARD...
  BEANS MILL...

&&

LAT...LON 3247 8515 3247 8532 3249 8544 3273 8529
      3259 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 116DEG 7KT 3254 8518

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