Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS La Crosse, WI

206 
WWUS53 KARX 200005
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
705 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIC019-119-200045-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110720T0045Z/
CLARK WI-TAYLOR WI-
705 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 700 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR JUMP RIVER...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF LADYSMITH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE
PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GILMAN...DONALD AND COUNTY ROADS F AND H AROUND 710 PM...
  THE MILLER DAM FLOWAGE AND POLLEY AROUND 715 PM...
  KATHRYN LAKE AND PERKINSTOWN AROUND 720 PM...
  NORTH TWIN LAKE AND LUBLIN AROUND 725 PM...
  THORP AND HIGHWAY 64 AND COUNTY D D AROUND 730 PM...
  HIGHWAY 13 AND COUNTY ROAD M AROUND 735 PM...
  MEDFORD AND COUNTY ROADS A AND E AROUND 740 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LIGHTNING AND FALLING TREES CAN KILL. CAMPING VEHICLES AND TENTS ARE
NOT SAFE DURING THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A PRE-DESIGNATED SHELTER IF
AVAILABLE. IF NO STRONG SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER IN A
DEPRESSION OR RAVINE...BUT AVOID STREAM BEDS AND DRY WASHES. ASSUME
THE LIGHTNING POSITION BY MINIMIZING YOUR HEIGHT AND CONTACT WITH THE
GROUND. CROUCH LOW AND WRAP YOUR ARMS AROUND YOUR LEGS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4506 9019 4504 9019 4503 9020 4503 9031
      4493 9031 4492 9093 4538 9093 4539 9092
      4538 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 315DEG 29KT 4530 9073
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

HALBACH

522 
WWUS53 KARX 200024
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

WIC019-119-200045-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-110720T0045Z/
CLARK WI-TAYLOR WI-
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 719 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR KATHRYN LAKE...OR 13 MILES WEST OF
MEDFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THE PORTION OF THIS WARNING IN NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND WESTERN 
TAYLOR COUNTY IS ALSO CURRENTLY UNDER A TORNADO WARNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  THORP AND COUNTY O AND STERLING AVENUE AROUND 730 PM...
  MEDFORD AND COUNTY ROADS A AND E AROUND 735 PM...
  OWEN AND WITHEE AROUND 740 PM...
  DORCHESTER AND ABBOTSFORD AROUND 745 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGE ROOFS...WINDOWS...SIDING AND VEHICLES. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH WILL UPROOT TREES AND DOWN POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LIGHTNING AND FALLING TREES CAN KILL. CAMPING VEHICLES AND TENTS ARE
NOT SAFE DURING THUNDERSTORMS. MOVE TO A PRE-DESIGNATED SHELTER IF
AVAILABLE. IF NO STRONG SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER IN A
DEPRESSION OR RAVINE...BUT AVOID STREAM BEDS AND DRY WASHES. ASSUME
THE LIGHTNING POSITION BY MINIMIZING YOUR HEIGHT AND CONTACT WITH THE
GROUND. CROUCH LOW AND WRAP YOUR ARMS AROUND YOUR LEGS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4506 9019 4504 9019 4503 9020 4503 9031
      4493 9031 4492 9093 4538 9093 4539 9092
      4538 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 327DEG 35KT 4514 9058
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
302 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS WEAKENED. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PER LATEST
MOSAIC RADAR.

THE 19.12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. BOTH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF WEAK
COLD FRONT. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC 19.12Z GFS
AND NAM IS TIMING OF THE RETURN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
19.15Z RUC SHOWS THE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH 925-
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES. BOTH THE
19.12Z GFS AND NAM SUGGEST STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS
24 TO PLUS 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HEAT INDICES OF 105 PLUS.

NEXT FOCUS TURNS TO WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. THE 19.12Z GFS AND NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE THE CAP OVER FORECAST
AREA...CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS LOWER A
FEW DEGREES OVER FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY DROP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND LET LATER SHIFTS TO
CANCEL EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING EARLY.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGE...SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW
RETURNS INTO FORECAST AREA. THE 19.12Z GFS FASTER IN RETURN
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW THAN THE NAM. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
DO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AND LIFT SURFACE WARM FRONT/CONVECTION NORTHWARD
INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DUE TO THE TIMING OF
RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INTO FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP CHANCES IN FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN BUILDING UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY IS LOW AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. THE LATEST 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO SURFACE BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. LATEST 19.12Z
ECMWF SHOWING PLUS 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AT 850MB BY 12Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS AND GEM SLOWER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL CONTINUE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW

THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT RST.  STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA HAVE
DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST PART. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-
     WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-WIZ053-
     WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.

MN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.

IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008-
     IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION..........HALBACH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-201200-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-
LA CROSSE-MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-
VERNON-WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
500 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROLONGED AND DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE...WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES AGAIN CLIMBING TO 100 TO 115...AND LOW TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE 70S. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 10 AM
TODAY...AND ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94 TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LOOK FOR THE DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 115 DURING THE AFTERNOONS. EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE 70S.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN IF ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT
NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 94.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED FOR 10 AM TODAY WHICH WILL GIVE AN UPDATE ON
THE HEAT WAVE.

AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
106 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-191900-
BUFFALO-DODGE-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-WINONA-
106 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 105 PM...THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN EYOTA AND ST.
CHARLES MINNESOTA...WITH THESE NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS STORM IS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. IF THESE RATES
PERSIST SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...THE STORM THAT WAS OVER THE TWIN CITIES HAS DIMINISHED
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE COME SEVERE...ALONG WITH PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

BE ALERT FOR STORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. MOVE INDOORS AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PREPARE NOW FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

RABERDING