Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Amarillo, TX

Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

168 
WWUS84 KAMA 270050
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
650 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

OKZ001-002-TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-271300-
/O.CAN.KAMA.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-110227T0100Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.110227T1600Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-
OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-
650 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

* WIND: ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20
  TO 30 MPH BY MID MORNING AND THEN TO 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
  60 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
  PANHANDLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

* HUMIDITY: ON SUNDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN
  5 AND 10 PERCENT.

* TIMING: CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING TO 8 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
ACCIDENTAL SPARKS OR OPEN FLAMES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO WILDFIRES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

$$

OKZ003-TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-019-020-271300-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.110227T1600Z-110228T0200Z/
BEAVER-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-GRAY-WHEELER-DONLEY-
COLLINGSWORTH-
650 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* WIND: ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
  20 TO 30 MPH BY MID MORNING AND THEN TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH 
  HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

* HUMIDITY: ON SUNDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
  BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PERCENT. 

* TIMING: CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
  ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING AND 8 PM SUNDAY 
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...SUSTAINED 20 FOOT
WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RATING
WILL CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
ACCIDENTAL SPARKS OR OPEN FLAMES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO WILDFIRES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

$$

JACKSON

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

624 
WWUS84 KAMA 270938
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-272200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.110227T1600Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
338 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* WIND: ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 
  20 TO 30 MPH BY MID MORNING AND THEN TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH 
  HIGHER GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
  PERCENT.

* TIMING: CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER 
  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING AND 8 PM 
  SUNDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. HIGH WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH WARM WEATHER WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AN EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY CHANGING IN BOTH DIRECTION AND
SPEED...A DANGEROUS SHIFT IN PROPAGATION AND SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING
WILDFIRES MAY RESULT. A MAJORITY OF FIREFIGHTING DEATHS AND INJURIES
ARE CAUSED BY SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

535 
WWUS84 KAMA 271611 AAA
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1011 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-280015-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1011 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
  PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
  DEVELOP BY 1 PM...THEN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH
  IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 8 PM.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH WARM WEATHER WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY CHANGING IN
BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...A DANGEROUS SHIFT IN PROPAGATION AND
SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY RESULT. A MAJORITY OF
FIREFIGHTING DEATHS AND INJURIES ARE CAUSED BY SUDDEN CHANGES 
IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.

&&

$$

MBS

611 
WWUS84 KAMA 271625 AAB
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-280200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING 
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 5 AND 
  10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING: CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
  DEVELOP BY 1 PM...THEN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH
  IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 8 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH WARM WEATHER WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY CHANGING
IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...A DANGEROUS SHIFT IN PROPAGATION
AND SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY RESULT. A MAJORITY OF
FIREFIGHTING DEATHS AND INJURIES ARE CAUSED BY SUDDEN CHANGES IN
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.

&&

$$

MBS

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

462 
WWUS84 KAMA 271908 AAB
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
108 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-280200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
108 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING 
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

* HUMIDITY: MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 10
  PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN
  BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 8 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH WARM WEATHER WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY CHANGING
IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...A DANGEROUS SHIFT IN PROPAGATION
AND SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY RESULT. A MAJORITY OF
FIREFIGHTING DEATHS AND INJURIES ARE CAUSED BY SUDDEN CHANGES IN
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.

&&

$$

MBS

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

149 
WWUS84 KAMA 272135
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
335 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-280200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
335 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING 
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

* HUMIDITY: RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 15 PERCENT
  THROUGH 6 PM...THEN INCREASE AFTER 6 PM.

* TIMING: EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
  THROUGH 6 PM...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 6 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SITUATION. HIGH WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...COMBINED WITH WARM WEATHER WILL CREATE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY CHANGING
IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...A DANGEROUS SHIFT IN PROPAGATION
AND SPREAD OF ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES MAY RESULT. A MAJORITY OF
FIREFIGHTING DEATHS AND INJURIES ARE CAUSED BY SUDDEN CHANGES IN
WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED.

&&

$$

MBS

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

171 
WWUS84 KAMA 280151 AAA
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
751 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

OKZ001-002-280300-
/O.CAN.KAMA.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0200Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-
751 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CIMARRON AND TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PASSAGE 
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO
20 MPH AFTER 2 AM.

$$

OKZ003-TXZ001>020-280300-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110228T0200Z/
BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-HARTLEY-MOORE-
HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-GRAY-WHEELER-
DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
747 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ALL OF THE TEXAS 
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE INCREASED ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY
2 AM.
 
$$

MBS

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1226 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

.UPDATE...
REMOVED MORNING FOG MENTION. ALSO...ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES.
AMARILLO/S SURFACE TEMPERATURE JUST SHOT UP TO 70 DEGREES AND
THE SURFACE DEWPOINT DROPPED TO 8 DEGREES. THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON.

THINK RED FLAG WARNING IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A BIT
CONCERNED LOCATIONS FROM OCHILTREE TO DONLEY COUNTY MAY REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA 2-6 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/

AVIATION...
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...WITH SW TO WSW WINDS
INCREASING INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...SHIFTING
EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP TO AROUND
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SUBSIDE
AROUND 00Z/01Z. ONLY EXPECTING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BY MID
MORNING ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING BY
16Z AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS. BELIEVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z THOUGH...JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD. AN AWW FOR 40 KNOT
GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR KAMA TOMORROW AND WILL PASS THIS
CONCERN ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/

UPDATE...
ADDED TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA TO TODAY/S RED FLAG WARNING. SCALED
BACK FREEZING FOG TO THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH NOON.
ALSO...INCREASED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS
AS WELL AS ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWNWARDS.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DUE
TO INCREASING WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS.

DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST PANHANDLES AS OF 10
AM...BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S...AND RAPIDLY DECREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. DALHART WAS ALREADY REPORTING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 57 AND SURFACE DEWPOINT OF 7 WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS 23 MPH GUSTING TO 31 MPH.

APPEARS STRATUS/FOG/FREEZING FOG IS LIFTING/DISSIPATING RATHER
QUICKLY OVER THE EAST PANHANDLES. THUS...THINK MORE SUN WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO INCREASED THEM
EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TODAY. PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

FIRE WEATHER...
ADDED TEXAS COUNTY OKLAHOMA TO THE RED FLAG WARNING AS WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AT GUYMON AS OF 10 AM...SO BELIEVE
WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AT THIS LOCATION.

RED FLAG WARNING APPEARS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WARNED AREA...INCLUDING AMARILLO...DALHART...DUMAS...AND BORGER.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FOG/FREEZING FOG/STRATUS CAN CLEAR OVER
THE EAST PANHANDLES...THE WARNING COULD BE EXPANDED FARTHER EAST...
BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIGHTER WINDS MAY KEEP
CONDITIONS JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THESE AREAS.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/

AVIATION...
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS AND FRZG FOG AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
THESE LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM SW TO NE AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
ALONG ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. ONCE MORNING FRZG FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ERODE..
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/

DISCUSSION...
THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS PLAYED HAVOC WITH
THE FORECAST THE LAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. BASED ON THE TRENDS OVER THE LAST TWO
DAYS...THINK THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR...AND SHIFTING THE WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOO QUICKLY.
THEREFORE...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TODAY.

THE MAIN DAY OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SUNDAY. THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC
FRONT...AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKING OVER THE PANHANDLES WHEREAS YESTERDAYS RUNS SHOWED THE LOW
LIFTING FROM CENTRAL NM INTO EASTERN CO. IN ADDITION...THESE THREE
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH BY THE TIME IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE NAM IS NOW THE OUTLIER WITH A
SOLUTION CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. CONSIDERING THE RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT...FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS...GEM...ECMWF SOLUTION. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR THE PANHANDLES IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY COME
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLES...BUT ESPECIALLY THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE A VERY WINDY DAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE JUST
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS A RATHER NEW TREND WITH THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THUS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH AS IS.

IN THE EXTENDED...A SERIES OF FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST
APPROACH THE REGION. THE MOST PROMISING OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THOUGH LIKELY THIS IS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
ECMWF A SLOWER SOLUTION...THUS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES...WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. THIS...COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLES. MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONLY
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WHICH WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL NOT SEE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SUNDAY. A VERY WINDY DAY
IS ON TAP...AND THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT...AND THUS NOT COINCIDENT WITH CRITICAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES...STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF WINDOW OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVER QUICKLY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...AND INCREASE TO 30
TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                74  36  70  30  60 /   0   0   0   5   0
BEAVER OK                  58  33  71  26  55 /   0   0   5  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              69  33  62  21  60 /   0   0  10  10   0
BORGER TX                  73  40  73  30  59 /   0   0   0   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              74  36  69  28  65 /   0   0   0   5   0
CANYON TX                  74  35  69  30  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               71  39  73  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 73  30  65  23  62 /   0   0   0   5   0
GUYMON OK                  69  35  69  25  59 /   0   0   5  10   0
HEREFORD TX                76  35  68  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  38  72  30  55 /   0   0   0   5   0
PAMPA TX                   72  40  69  30  56 /   0   0   0   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                69  37  76  34  57 /   0   0   0   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              70  38  77  36  60 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

17/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1020 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-270430-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
1020 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...DRY
FUELS...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE AREAS.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH...DRY FUELS...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 10
AND 20 PERCENT.

IN ADDITION...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TODAY DUE TO THE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...DRY FUELS...AND
FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. AS A
RESULT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

IN ADDITION...A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FROM LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING DUE TO THE EXPECTED VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MBS