Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Albany, NY

015 
WGUS71 KALY 062340
FFSALY

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

NYC035-070200-
/O.CON.KALY.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110607T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FULTON NY-
740 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY...

AT 734 PM EDT...HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA...HOWEVER RUNOFF MAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SCOTCHBRUSH...FICAL CORNERS AND DEMPSTER CORNERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

&&

LAT...LON 4302 7466 4309 7465 4313 7457 4305 7450
      4302 7452 4299 7455

$$

JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS
WEEK...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
WILL PUSH INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW
PROBABILITY OF OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO MID SUMMER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM CANADA...WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM...ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS WITH A ROGUE LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS THAT HAVE POPPED
UP HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED. DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY LOWERED INTO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NO REAL FORCING MECHANISM OTHER
THAN TERRAIN HEATING. SO...ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST BY SUNSET WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD COOL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS WITH 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY...WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SIMILAR TO TODAY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING EXPECTED.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GUIDANCE
INDICATING CONVECTION WOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...BUT
MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR LIFT ALONG ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. WILL MENTION 15-20 POPS FOR NOW AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A MID LEVEL CAP THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. FORECAST
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
STORMS ALTHOUGH IF A CLUSTER OF STORMS CAN FORM WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. TEMPS WILL START TO WARM CONSIDERABLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AT COMFORTABLE
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY CREEPING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET AS HEATING IS LOST AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...SO MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILDER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WITH VERY WARM AIR ALOFT SURGING
INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WILL APPROACH OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED
+20C WITH AN INCREASING WESTERLY WIND. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OFF THE
ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING...SO
EXPECTING HIGH IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS EVEN MID 90S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS. EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
85-90 DEGREE RANGE. ONCE CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE IF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...THERE COULD BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
LARGE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE. CONSERVATIVELY SPEAKING...2000-3000+ J/KG
MAY BUILD BY AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FORCING. HOWEVER...IF A FEW STORMS BREAK THROUGH THE CAP
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MENTION
THREAT IN HWO DESPITE BEING ISOLATED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HIGH
IMPACT OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

ONCE AGAIN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY DARK AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME IF ANY
IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL MENTION DRY CONDITIONS FOR NOW AS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION DIMINISHING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER
60S FOR MINS IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT AND CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE
WORSE IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW MOVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT MOVING IT VERY FAR SOUTH
ON FRIDAY...THEN RETURN THE FRONT NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
FRONT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES ALONG THE FRONT PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

SPECIFICALLY...HAVE FORECAST POPS INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF
MAINLY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN...THEN A LONG PERIOD OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

HOT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S. AFTER THAT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT OF PCPN WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED COOLING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S...LOWERING TO HIGHS IN THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE BY
MONDAY. LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. GENERALLY NOTHING MORE THAN SCT HI
THIN CIRRUS...AND SOME DIURNAL CU EACH AFTERNOON. THE CU THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY NOT LIKELY TO REACH THE CB LEVEL...
SO HAVE LEFT THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SOME FOG HAS BEEN
FORECAST AT KALB/KPOU FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AT KGFL...THE FOG IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY CALM
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED AFTN...VFR. CHC MVFR IN ISOLD -TSRA.
THU...VFR/MVFR. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THIS
WEEK...THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
WILL PUSH INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS LOW...AS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE AND MAINLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...THEN WILL DROP TO A MINIMUM AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. WIND SPEED WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ASIDE FROM
THE CONTINUED FLOODING ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING COVERAGE TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SO...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN DRY OVER THE LAST WEEK AND ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL AT THIS POINT.

LAKE CHAMPLAIN CONTINUES ABOVE ITS FLOOD ELEVATION. PLEASE REFER TO
STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE IN BURLINGTON VT FOR DETAILS ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-071100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
425 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
EXTENSIVE...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
536 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

NYZ039-082-062215-
SOUTHERN FULTON NY-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
536 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN

  FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EPHRATAH...OR ABOUT 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
EPHRATAH BY 545 PM EDT

THE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS LIKELY.

LAT...LON 4308 7433 4299 7439 4300 7456 4304 7466
      4319 7462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 305DEG 8KT 4306 7453

JPV