Wind Advisory 37, NWS Juneau, AK

861 
WWAK77 PAJK 150735
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1135 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

AKZ027-028-150845-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0037.000000T0000Z-110315T0800Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1135 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-151300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.110315T1200Z-110315T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1135 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT
TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY.

* WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE...LEAVING A FAIRLY RAGGED CLOUD MASS AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP FIELD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS HAS BEEN A RAIN EVENT
FROM THE BEGINNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE SEEN THE
SNOW TO RAIN TRANSITION OVER PETERSBURG AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT AM STILL SEEING SNOW IN THE OBSERVATIONS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE OF BARANOF ISLAND FROM PORT ALEXANDER NORTH AND
OTHER LOCATIONS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. OUTER COAST FROM THE
DIXON ENTRANCE CLEAR UP TO YAKUTAT IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POINTS NORTH OF SITKA ON THE OUTER COAST
WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE FOR
INSIDE LOCATIONS FROM ANGOON NORTHWARD.

WINDS DID NOT PROGRESS AS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO WOUND UP
CANCELING THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES A LITTLE
EARLY....LEAVING THEM LOCALLY WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
DO...HOWEVER...HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT THAT RUNS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SITUATION HAS
CHANGED FOR THE JUNEAU ZONE AS WELL AND DO NOT HAVE ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR TOMORROW MORNING...SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

MAIN FEATURE IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE A LOW
THAT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT AND TAKES ON AN
ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SHAPE ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT SOME WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR. AT THIS
POINT...DO NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW...OR GET BACK BELOW...FREEZING TONIGHT. INSTEAD...THIS THIS
EVENT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD WITH A RAIN SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND SNOW FARTHER NORTH. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS...HAINES AND SKAGWAY...SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN. MID
LEVEL ENERGY NOT VERY STRONG AND IS POORLY ORGANIZED...SO PRECIP
AMOUNTS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. HAVE A MAX OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR TOMORROW.
CONSEQUENTLY...NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST.

USED NAM FOR WINDS AND PRESSURE. BLENDED GFS AND NAM FOR POP
FIELD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...CHANGES ARE NOT LARGE. CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE. 12Z NAM
RUN APPLIED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR 00Z TO 18Z WED, WITH THE 1400
ECMWF APPLIED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

500H LOW WITH CENTER 100 NM SE OF PACD HAS A LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION
THAT INCLUDES FLOW THROUGH TROUGH ALOFT THAT EXTENDS SE FM LOW.  THIS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE SURFACE LOWS.
FOR INITIALIZATION OF THE POLAR FRONT ZONE FEATURES ABOUT 600 NM
SW OF PAJN, THE NAM IS BEST, FOLLOWED BY THE EC. WFO PAFC INDEPENDANTLY
CHOSE TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM AND EC. HPC HAS ALSO POINTED OUT
THE USEFULNESS OF USING THE EC AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE EC
RUN FROM 1400 IS APPLIED THROUGH DAY 8.

THE LESS PROGRESSIVE PATN OF EC IS FAVORED OVER GFS, ALBEIT HPC
USED A BLEND OF EC AND NAEFS. BEGINNING ABOUT 18Z THU. THE LARGE-
SCALE PATTERN HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED BLOCKING PATTERN. THE 500H
PATTERN INCLUDES A CENTRAL RIDGE EXTENDING NNW FM THE NPAC OVR
PADK WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTON SOUND. THE LOWS THAT COMPLETE AN
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN ARE: TO THE WEST 400 NM SW OF PASY AT 18Z THU
AND TO THE EAST 400 NM S OF PAMD. THE ECMWF HAS A BREAKDOWN OF
THIS BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND SLOWER
BREAKDOWN IS PREFERRED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>035-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

FRITSCH/JBT