Wind Advisory 29, NWS Juneau, AK

815 
WWAK77 PAJK 062053
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1153 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

AKZ018-070100-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-110307T0100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1153 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

*WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL START DIMINISH IN THE LATE
 AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKST SUNDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

513 
WWAK77 PAJK 070058
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

AKZ018-070600-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-110307T0600Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
358 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

*WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING IN
 THE LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

630 
WWAK77 PAJK 070542
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
842 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

AKZ018-071200-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
842 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST MONDAY. 

*WIND: NORTHEAST GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 3 AM AKST MONDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

899 
WWAK77 PAJK 071156
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
256 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2011


AKZ018-071300-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-110307T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
256 AM AKST MON MAR 7 2011

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING. 

* WIND: NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
  OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY NEAR SKAGWAY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...LOW IN THE SW GULF QUASISTATIONARY AND WEAKENING
THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GULF SE
INTO SE GULF AND ALONG WEST SIDE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS ALSO
STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH OVER NW
CANADA SLIDES EAST TODAY BUT A NEW HIGH IS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN
ALASKA.

SATELLITE AND OBS SHOWS MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CHICHAGOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN GLACIER BAY AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. RADAR INDICATES A WELL DEFINED BAND OF
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF PKZ042 AND MOST LIKELY
EXTENDING SE TO QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS.

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO END IN THE MORNING WITH CLOUDS
BREAKING UP THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT WILL CUT ACROSS
FAR SW PORTION OF ZONE 27. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN HERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

STILL HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS IN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS IN CROSS SOUND ALSO AT GALE LEVELS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING. LYNN CANAL HAS FALLEN BELOW GALES WITH JUST 30 KT
THERE TODAY. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO RIGHT ALONG COAST
MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH PAGY VERY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL
MONITOR HERE.

TEMPERATURES WERE RATHER MILD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND COULD
REACH 40F THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS COOLED A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR FREEZING. IN THE FAR NORTH IT REMAINS QUITE
COLD ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WHERE TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE TEENS
TODAY AND DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
EASTERN GULF IN SHORT TERM WITH LESS AGREEMENT ACROSS NORTH
PACIFIC AND WEST OF THE GULF. USED THE NAM12 WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE. WEAK FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST DOMAIN WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF WINDS IN OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (AOR). A DRAINAGE OF DENSE ARCTIC AIR FM CAN SHOULD
GEN GALES IN THE NRN PNHDL AND OUT OF INTERIOR MTN PASSES SUCH AS
THE TAKU AND STIKINE, ELSEWHERE LESS WIND THROUGH TUE. CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED ONWARD AS THE
MODELS DEVELOP A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.

LARGE SCALE: 500H HIGH OVER WRANGELL ISLAND IS TO DRIFT SE AND BE OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA 12Z TUE. THIS HIGH DRIFTS SLOWLY S AND ABOUT 00Z WED
BECOMES PART OF A POORLY ORGANIZED OMEGA BLOCK. AT 00Z WED THE OMEGA
BLOCK LOWS WILL BE: TO THE WEST SIDE WI 200 NM SE OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA, TO THE EAST SIDE 300 S OF PADQ.

GULF: THE LOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE OMEGA LOW IS THE PARENT
FEATURE FOR A SFC LOW THAT AT 12Z MON SHOULD BE 400 NM S OF PADQ
WITH A 988 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL QUASISTATIONARY AS
IT SENDS A MATURING OCFNT NE TOWARD THE PNHDL, HOWEVER THIS OCFNT
WILL STRETCH OUT AND WEAKEN BEFORE IT CAN REACH THE PANHANDLE. A
LARGE SCALE WEAK FLOW REGION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COL THAT
SHOULD BE 100-200 NM NE OF PAJN, ALBEIT THE MODELS EASILY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME LOCATING SUCH A CONTOUR HEIGHT SADDLE POINT.

MODELS: GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE AGREEMENT AMONG THE UKMET, NAM,
ECMWF,AND GFS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TUE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY PRIMARY GUIDANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
BREAK DOWN WED AND THU, BUT THE BREAKDOWN IS STILL UNSETTLED IN
THE MODELS. CONSEQUENTLY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MID WEEK HAVE
EVERYTHING FROM PRECIP TO MOSTLY CLEAR. A HYBRID WEAK FLOW SOLUTION
FROM HPC IS IN USE UNTIL SOME MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS. THIS LACK
OF CONSENSUS IS THE IS THE REASON FOR THE CONFIDENCE BEING BELOW
AVERAGE FOR WED ONWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>035-041.

&&

MM/JBT