Storm Warning 32, NWS Juneau, AK

735 
FZAK51 PAJK 041857 AAA
CWFAJK
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-050100-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH TO A LOCATION WEST
OF THE DIXON ENTRANCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. NORTHEAST OUTFLOW WIND
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ011-050100-
GLACIER BAY-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
LATE. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-050100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 80 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

PKZ013-050100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-050100-
ICY STRAIT-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MID AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-050100-
CROSS SOUND-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-050100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-050100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-050100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ034-050100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ035-050100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-050100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
10 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
335 PM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS. THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ATTM AND THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OFF AND ON SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING TIME
FRAME BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE AS THEY LIFT NORTH. THE WINDS OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGH TODAY WITH GALES OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CROSS SOUND WITH MIN SMALL CRAFTS OVER THE REST OF
THE MARINE WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME STRONG GUSTS FROM INTERIOR
PASSES WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA PERSISTING.

 THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THE
GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS FOR THOSE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE TO PRODUCE UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH CLOUDS THINNING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG GALE FORCE LOW LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE
PACIFIC.

 AS SEEN ON THE WV IMAGERY THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
DEEPEN NEAR 985MB AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO BE JUST
WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH SEND A WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS BEEN THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE
NAM/WRF WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS IT HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE LOCAL WIND AFFECTS. SO WITH THAT SAID WILL BE ISSUING A
WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR ZONES 27 AND 28 THAT WILL GO INTO THE
LONG TERM PORTIONS BUT THOSE AREAS WILL SEE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES
BY FRI AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE SNOW THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY
STRONG WINDS FROM THE EAST THAT WILL GUST TO 45 MPH. THE WINDS
FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP THEM FROM
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BUT THE VERY FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THOSE
ZONES MAY SEE SOME MIX. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE
ZONE 26 BY THE AFTERNOON BUT THEY WILL SEE ONLY AROUND 2 INCHES
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DEAL WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.

 THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON FOR
ZONE 18 WITH STRONG WINDS AND WIND CHILLS TO 30 BELOW NEAR WHITE
PASS. THE WINDS NEAR PAGY HAVE DIMINISHED SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG
GUSTS WILL RETURN. THERE WILL BE WIND ADVY LEVEL GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS SOME
GUSTS WILL BE IN EXPOSED AREAS. ALSO THE RETURN OF TAKU WINDS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE JUNEAU AREA AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
GUSTS TO REACH 60+MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE PANHANDLE. AS THIS TIME WILL ISSUE A WATCH BUT THERE IS ABOUT
A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP. OVER MARINE
WATERS STORM FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SOLID GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REST
OF THE N/S CHANNELS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEAR INTERIOR PASSES GUSTS
WILL INCREASE TO 70 KT ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF IS STILL VERY TIGHT ATTM AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR ZONE 17 THROUGH SAT MORNING AS GUSTS TO 60 MPH
CONTINUE FROM THE INTERIOR.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN LOWS IN THE GULF AND HIGHS
IN THE CANADIAN INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST OF SUCH COMING FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
APPROACHING LOW AND FRONT COMING UP FROM THE SW AND THE REMNANTS
OF THE HIGH STILL IN THE CANADIAN INTERIOR, OUTFLOW WIND WILL
ONCE AGAIN START BLOWING. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN PAJN AND CYXY
WILL BE REACHING 20 MB AND BETWEEN CYXY AND PAYA WILL BE REACHING
24 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN UP
FOR YAKUTAT AS SOME OF THE INTERIOR PASSES ARE STILL BLOWING.
ALSO WILL BE POSTING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR JUNEAU FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG TAKU WINDS ARE LOOKING TO MAKE A REAPPEARANCE
(CROSS BARRIER FLOW, INVERSION, A CRITICAL LEVEL AT THE RIGHT
HEIGHT). IN THE MARINE ZONES LYNN CANAL WILL BE BRUSHING WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND OTHER INNER CHANNEL AREAS
MAY SEE GALE FORCE WINDS.

 FARTHER SOUTH, THE INCOMING FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SOME
PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS
SNOW. THE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH THAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ZONES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. OUTFLOW DOWNSLOPING WINDS FARTHER NORTH WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

 EARLY NEXT WEEK WE ENTER A CALM PERIOD AS THE HIGH IN CANADA
WEAKENS AND THERE ARE NO LOWS IN THE GULF THAT WILL BRING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HIGHER. THAT CHANGES BY TUES NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES SOUTH FROM CANADA. IT WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUS COLD SHOTS SO ONLY EXPECTING GALES AT MAX IN
THE INNER CHANNELS ESPECIALLY WHEN A WEAK FRONT COME UP FROM THE
SOUTH WED TO HELP TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT. AN EVEN STRONGER SHOT
OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR LATE WEEK AS
WELL.

 MODELS ARE IN NOT TOO BAD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH GOOD
CONSENSUS ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE DETAILS NEED A BIT OF
HELP THOUGH. MODELS ARE A LITTLE UNSURE WHERE TO PUT FRIDAY
NIGHTS LOW IN THE GULF BUT GIVEN HOW WELL THE NAM INITIALIZED THE
FEATURE OVER THE OTHER MODELS LEANED TOWARD THAT SOLUTION FOR THE
WEEKEND. FARTHER OUT, MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE SYSTEM COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH FOR MID WEEK. POSITION IS AGREED UPON WELL BUT
STRENGTH VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. DECIDED TO DO
A OF HPC/GFS/EC AS THEY WERE ALL CLOSE ENOUGH POSITION WISE TO
MAKE THE BLEND FEASIBLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ020-
     022-026.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR AKZ027-028.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ023.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ029.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ051-052.

&&

ABJ/EAL