Storm Warning 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

187 
FZAK52 PAFG 172316
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
216 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-181430-
216 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1045 MB HIGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BUT WILL WEAKEN TO 1034 MB OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA WILL TURN WEST. A NEW AND WEAKER 990 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE 1000 MB
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE YUKON DELTA
BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-181430-
NORTON SOUND-
216 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 40 KT DEVELOPING BY
MIDNIGHT NEAR CHANNELED AREAS. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 40 KT NEAR CHANNELED
AREAS IN THE MORNING. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-181430-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
216 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND 30 KT OFF
THE YUKON DELTA INCREASING TO 40 KT AROUND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND 50 KT SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT
12 FT AROUND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND 24 FT SOUTHWEST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND. SNOW FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND SOUTH. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 14 FT FROM SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND SOUTHWEST. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-181430-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
216 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-181430-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
216 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

DJH/DA NOV 11

317 
FZAK52 PAFG 181101
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
201 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-190415-
201 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1042 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST INTERIOR ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN YUKON AND WEAKEN TO 1030 MB BY 3 PM AKST SATURDAY. A 1000
MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS
A 970 MB LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA. THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR SAINT PAUL ISLAND AS A
974 MB LOW BY 9 PM AKST SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ200-190415-
NORTON SOUND-
201 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT.  
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-190415-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
201 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT SOUTHWEST
OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT ELSEWHERE. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-190415-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
201 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT.  
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.  
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-190415-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
201 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT...STRONGEST NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.  
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

JK/CB NOV 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT NOW OVER THE
EASTERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO EASE OVER A LITTLE TO
THE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THAT TIME A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD
FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA UP OVER THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SOME WITH THIS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
BRING UP NORTHERN ALASKA TEMPERATURES MUCH.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODEL
FORECASTS A REINFORCEMENT OF THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE ALASKA
MAINLAND TO RESUME...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL FORECASTS A
VERY COLD LOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
BRING MUCH CHANGE TO THE WEATHER.

THE CRUCIAL INGREDIENT IS CLOUD COVER. SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...BUT THESE PERIODS OF CLOUD
COVER CAN TYPICALLY LAST JUST HALF OF A DAY. THE PROSPECTS OF
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR LOOK BETTER...BUT THIS ASSUMES THAT THE GFS MODEL IS
CORRECT. IT DOES LOOK REASONABLE.

THE AFTERNOON POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DECKS OF
LOW CLOUDS -- STRATOCUMULUS -- OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC
SLOPE...AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC...THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR. THERE ARE LARGE AREAS OF 40 BELOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE INTERIOR. ON THE WEST COAST SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
NOME RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THESE CLOUDS OFFSHORE OVER NORTON
SOUND...MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A FORECAST OF PERSISTENCE OF THE
COLD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE DURATION OF
THE PRESENT COLD SPELL IS PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT MATTER IN
TODAYS FORECASTS FOR NORTHERN ALASKA. IF THE COLD SPELL RUNS
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK IT WILL REACH A DURATION OF 1 1/2
WEEKS. NORTHERN ALASKA WINTER COLD SPELLS CAN LAST TO A MAXIMUM OF
3 TO 3 1/2 WEEKS...THIS IS BASED ON 105 YEARS OF OBSERVATIONS. THE
UPSHOT IS THAT OUR COLD SPELL COULD RUN AS LONG AS THE FIRST WEEK
OF DECEMBER. THE REAL OUTCOME REMAINS TO BE SEEN...THE BEST GUESS
NOW IS A DURATION OF 2 1/2 WEEKS. BUT AGAIN...THIS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN.

THE INBOUND NORTH PACIFIC STORM...HEADED NORTHWARD TO A
DESTINATION OVER CHUKOTKA...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON NORTHERN
ALASKA OTHER THAN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR THE AREA
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE PERSISTENT COLD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE MAINLAND WILL SHUNT ENERGY FROM
INCOMING NORTH PACIFIC LOWS UP OVER CHUKOTKA ON THE ONE SIDE AND
DOWN INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THE OTHER SIDE.

THE OVERALL PATTERN FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS IS ONE THAT
CAN BE VERY STABLE AND LONG LIVED. HOWEVER...WHEN SUCH COLD SPELLS
OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND END...THE CHANGE CAN BE DRASTIC. IN SOME
CASES...CHINOOK WINDS CAN BRING TEMPERATURES UP FOR SOMETHING LIKE
40 BELOW TO 40 ABOVE. THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN IN EVERY CASE...BUT IT
IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

TF NOV 11