Storm Warning 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

630 
FZAK52 PAFG 101218
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
318 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-110330-
318 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A STRONG 958 MB LOW IS ROUGHLY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
AS OF 12Z. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR WRANGEL
ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 971 MB BY NOON ON THURSDAY. A NEW LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND MOVE ACROSS THE SEWARD
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ200-110330-
NORTON SOUND-
318 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SW WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-110330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
318 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 15 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-110330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
318 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-110330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
318 AM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

JK/RL NOV 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
549 AM AKST WED NOV 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

MAJOR BERING SEA SUPER STORM IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES NW OF
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY A 950 MB LOW
WILL WEAKEN A FEW MB DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HR. THE LOWEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE THE 940-945 MB RANGE EARLIER LAST NIGHT.

CURRENT MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT TAKING THE STORM CENTER
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AROUND 18Z
THIS MORNING WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 953 MB. THE STORM WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED AS IT TRACKS NWWD TOWARDS WRANGEL ISLAND.
PROGGED POSITION FOR 12Z THU...NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 970 MB.

A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA OR NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WED EVENING...MOVING TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THU
MORNING WHILE FILLING.

OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT ARE WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY WED MORNING.
GUSTS AS HIGH OF 85 MPH WERE REPORTED AT WALES AND TIN CITY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO GALES WED EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO WEST
LATER WED NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE ISLAND EXPECTED DIMINISH THU
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR AKZ212 WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 03Z FRI AS SOUTHWEST
GALES SHIFT TO WEST KEEPING SEA LEVELS UP OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF NORTON SOUND. BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201 HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WARNING.

BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER MOST WEST COAST MAINLAND AREAS
THROUGH WED EVENING. HEAVIEST STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND
10-18 INCHES IN AKZ211 AND THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF AKZ210.
INLAND ZONE 217 IS EXPERIENCING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL. A WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE 217 AS WELL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...

AKZ207...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION
ALONG THE COAST FROM CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO POINT HOPE THROUGH WED
EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS EXPECTED IN AKZ207...SE 60-70 MPH WITH
LOCAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET
EXPECTED WED.

AKZ211...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. IN THE NOME AREA... MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 7
TO 9 FEET EXPECTED WED EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS EXPECTED...SE TO 60
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

AKZ212...THROUGH WED NIGHT...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE
BEACH EROSION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES OF NORTON
SOUND. SEA LEVELS RISING TO 8-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH SEA
LEVELS WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORE. STRONG WINDS AND WAVES MAY PUSH ICE IN NORTON BAY
ONSHORE.

 FRI...SEA LEVELS 6-8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN
NORTON SOUND. COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING IN LOW LYING AREAS.
WESTERLY GALES CAUSING BEACH EROSION ON WEST FACING SHORELINE.

AKZ213...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION
 ALONG SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND... AND ALONG
THE BERING STRAIT COAST THROUGH WED EVENING. SEA LEVELS WILL BE AS
HIGH AS 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND UP TO 3-5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND COAST INCLUDING THE GAMBELL AREA. BEACH EROSION CONTINUING
THROUGH MID DAY THU ON WEST FACING SHORES OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...S TO SE 75 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
GUSTS TO 85 MPH ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST.

AKZ214...MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION...
 MAINLY ON WEST FACING SHORES...THROUGH WED EVENING. MAXIMUM SEA
LEVELS AROUND 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.

INTERIOR...SOME SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE THURS/INTO FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ230.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

JK NOV 11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
233 PM AKST WED NOV 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SAVOONGA                63.68N 170.47W
11/09/2011                                      AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A FEW CHIMNEYS WERE BLOWN OVER.

&&

SAK