Storm Warning 160, NWS Anchorage, AK

667 
FZAK51 PAFC 200041 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
440 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

UPDATED ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW STRENGTHENS TO 972 MB THURSDAY MORNING 70
NM EAST OF SAND POINT...THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TO 980 MB AS IT DRIFTS
WEST TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
440 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25
KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

438 
FZAK51 PAFC 201149
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WEAKENS TO 977 MB FRI
MORNING NEAR NELSON LAGOON AND THEN WEAKENS TO 987 MB FRI NIGHT 
150 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK. A 992 MB LOW MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THU NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND 
BY FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT BY NOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE
WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING
TO 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

849 
FZAK51 PAFC 202320
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT...THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS ON FRI. A 971 MB LOW
NEAR SAND POINT REMAINS STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 984 MB FRI
EVENING...THEN MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AT 994 MB SAT
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-211500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 30 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO N 15 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT THIS EVENING.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-211500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI... W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 20 KT 
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT. E OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE DURING
THE EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-211500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT DIMINISHING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

JAM

920 
FZAK51 PAFC 211149
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220300-
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK WEAKENS TO 986 MB FRI NIGHT 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AND THEN WEAKENS SAT NIGHT INTO A BROAD 
998 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.
$$

PKZ120-220300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 25 KT NORTH AND EAST 
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-220300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-220300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-220300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-220300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 25 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-220300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-220300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-220300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
N OF KALGIN ISLAND...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-220300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI OCT 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
210 PM AKDT WED OCT 19 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...TODAY IS A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF ONE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPART THE DOMAIN AND ANOTHER
INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH A
SE TO NW AXIS BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA RANGE UP THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER THIS RIDGE WHILE SHOWERS STILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE DOMAIN. THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NORTH TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE ANCHOR LOW FOR THIS NEW DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS
POSITIONED BACK OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA...AND WILL SLOWLY DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE LOOKING A BIT DIFFERENT TODAY...BUT SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE HAD THE BEST RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGEST A STRONGER LOW WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TRACK TOWARD THE AKPEN OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE WILL EFFECT THE WINDS
AROUND THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL ZONES. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE MODELS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME PINNING DOWN THE TIMING OF SOME VERY FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. AGAIN...THE
NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO WE WILL
BE NUDGING TOWARD THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROF OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE HAD A BIGGER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER THAN
ANTICIPATED. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAS LINGERED IN THE
REGION FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS MADE IT FROM EAGLE RIVER UP TO PALMER. A FEW MORE FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REMNANTS MOVE INLAND AND THE
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

GALE FORCE WINDS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT
EVENTUALLY APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MOST PRECIPITATION FALLING AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW COUPLED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT
WILL KEEP GAP WINDS WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA FOR THIS STORM.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...LINGERING FOG UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS VERY
SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR DILLINGHAM AND
UP THE NUSHAGAK RIVER. OTHERWISE A VERY NICE FALL DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. A DEFORMATION ZONE
CONNECTING THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE ANCHOR LOW WILL STAY JUST OFF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE LOW STALLS NEAR SAND POINT AT 970 MB. THE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE DOMAIN.

ALEUTIAN/BERING SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS TO STORM FORCE JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AS WELL.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT WAS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS LOOKING MUCH MORE FLAT
THESE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SO CONTINUED WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAK LOWS DEVELOPING AND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 132 138 150
         GALE WARNING 120 130 140 155 160 165 175 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB OCT 11