High Wind Watch 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

678 
WWAK72 PAFC 131901
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1001 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011

AKZ155-140715-
/X.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0004.110114T0100Z-110114T1300Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0006.110114T0100Z-110114T1300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
1001 AM AKST THU JAN 13 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
AKST FRIDAY ALONG THE COAST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
AKST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WITH GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TOKSOOK BAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

UPDATED WARNINGS

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. WITH THE HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN
RUSSIA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY ERODING THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR MASS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
BY THE HIGH LAST WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED 1051 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
ACTUALLY LOCATED TO THE EAST OVER THE ALASKAN NORTH SLOPE...CREATING
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND LEADING TO WARNING
LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND OTHER FAVORABLE OUTLETS
SUCH AS THOMPSON PASS AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. A SERIES OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ARE BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF ALASKA.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
BERING SEA COURTESY OF THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH. A 90 KT JET
STREAK WRAPPING WESTWARD OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS RESULTING IN
STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST OF THE DELTA.
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS GRADUALLY SINKING
SOUTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OVER ALASKA IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MIGRATING NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING AROUND THIS HIGH...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXITS
THE REGION AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE LESSENS AS THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE
REGION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THE NORM ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT GIVEN
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE THEY SHOULD GENERATE HIGH CLOUDS AT BEST. STRONG
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MAT VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER DELTA AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS. COLDER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...COMBINED WITH THE
LESSENING WINDS...WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA...CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...WHERE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD AND HELPS AMPLIFY
WINDS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. A
STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS RETROGRADES
SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A CONTINUED CALM WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
MODELS DEVELOP A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE BERING SEA STARTING MONDAY MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...111 131 135.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...126 127 128 130 138 140 172 175 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 126 127 128 140 141 160
                                        185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS JAN 11