Gale Warning 853, NWS Anchorage, AK

968 
FZAK51 PAFC 120001
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING 40 NM NORTH OF KODIAK CITY AND
STRENGTHENS TO 968 MB AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT SATURDAY
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...WINDS BECOMING W 55 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 40 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING
W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER 
MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT THIS EVENING.
SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR WHITTIER BY NOON. SEAS 
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT.  SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...SE WIND 35 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 10 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT EXCEPT SW 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
12 FT EXCEPT 5 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS EVENING BECOMING SW 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

744 
FZAK51 PAFC 121236
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-130300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 MB LOW 85 NM WEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR YAKUTAT 
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM 
SOUND SUN NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-130300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST 
E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN 
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-130300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-130300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS 
AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-130300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-130300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT...BUILDING TO 18 FT SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS IN 
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT EXCEPT 14 FT W OF THE 
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-130300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-130300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-130300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT 
BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT EXCEPT SW 30 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 12 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-130300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 12 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT BY NOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
245 PM AKST THU NOV 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE LARGE STORM CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF NORTHWEST ALASKA...THE FOCUS TURNS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE. A VERY LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH A FETCH ORIGINATING
FROM THE SUBTROPICS IS NOSING FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE
BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL LINGERING IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE DEVELOPING LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BUT WILL BE RACING TOWARD THE CENTRAL BERING BY
LATE TONIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE VERY WELL ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH ONLY A
FEW MINOR PROBLEMS IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN REGARDING THE MESO SCALE
FEATURES. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT OUTLIER FOR THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. IT IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE GFS...UKMET..AND ECMWF. THIS TRANSLATES EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF. ALL MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER AND NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS SO A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO TRY AND CAPTURE THOSE CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
AS ONE SNOW EVENT ENDS...ALREADY LOOKING WEST FOR THE NEXT SNOW TO
BEGIN FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
TYPICAL CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS RESULTING IN COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE GRADIENT QUICKLY INCREASES AND
CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...REACHING
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NAM TRIES TO
DOWNSLOPE THE WESTERN KENAI AND ANCHORAGE BOWL AND LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 850 MB AND HIGHER WILL BE PLENTY TO
SUPPORT LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHATEVER
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW EXISTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CUT OFF AS THE
TRIPLE POINT MOVES RAPIDLY INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT. THE MOISTURE AND BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST WITH THE TRIPLE POINT SO
SNOW THAT FALLS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE LARGELY A RESULT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

SOME CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW ALONG THE LOWER
INLET...SPECIFICALLY AROUND KACHEMAK BAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT...HOMER COULD BE LIMITED IN HOW MUCH SNOW
IT RECEIVES ALTHOUGH THE BLUFF COULD SEE SINGIFICANTLY HIGHER STORM
TOTALS.

AT THIS TIME...NO ADVISORIES WE ARE CONFIDENT ON ONLY ONE AREA IN
SOUTHCENTRAL REACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLD AND THAT IS THE WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY. FORECASTS MAY CHANGE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW BECOMES MORE
OBVIOUS.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS EXPERIENCING VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROF OUT WEST. PLEASANT WEATHER WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW QUICKLY
DEEPENS TO THE 960S. THE PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR VERY FAR NORTH. THIS NEXT LOW IS GOING TO TAP
INTO THAT ENERGY AND A RELATIVELY WEAK LOW QUICKLY BECOMES A MAJOR
STORM HEADING FOR BETHEL BY TOMORROW EVENING.

THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH THIS NEXT STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND OVER PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARD BETHEL WILL ALLOW WARM AIR
ALOFT TO SPILL OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
FROM KING SALMON TO DILLINGHAM.

SOME AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF KING SALMON WILL SEE SNOW CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BEFORE COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE FRIDAY EVENING. A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BRISK
CONDITIONS AROUND THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WIDESPREAD GALE AND STORM WARNINGS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY. THE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO FILL IN
OVER THE PRIBILOFS...PREVENTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THAT REGION.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL EAST AND COLD AIR
WRAPS AROUND...THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE PRIBILOFS. THIS WILL
ALSO DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK...SOMETHING THAT WITH EACH MODEL RUN
WE GAIN CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH.

.EXTENDED...
THE LARGE TROF SLOWLY DISSIPATES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...A VERY LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE BERING
SEA. THIS CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL ALLOW COLD DRY AIR TO FILTER
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THIS EXTENDED SNOWY
PATTERN THIS LAST WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 161
MARINE...STORM WARNING...132 138 155 160 165 170 171 179 180 185 414
         GALE WARNING....120 125 129 130 150 172 175 176 411 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AB NOV 11