Gale Warning 600, NWS Anchorage, AK

495 
FZAK62 PAFC 252347
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261500-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 MB LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 58N 169W MON 
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 55N 152W TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 2O TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.MON...W OF 166W...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. E OF 166W...
VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

576 
FZAK62 PAFC 261123
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 60N 180 WILL MOVE TO 57N 164W THIS EVENING THEN
WEAKEN TO 1000 MB NEAR 55N 150W TUE NIGHT. A 993 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR
61N 172E TUE NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

204 
FZAK62 PAFC 262324
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 57N 168W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 54N 158W MON NIGHT AT
995 MB THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUE EVENING. A WEATHER
FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING TUE NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... 

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 T0 14 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 14 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 26 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT SAT SEP 24 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GULF AND NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC (SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS). A LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS RAPIDLY
EXITING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS ITS DRIVEN TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BY A 160KT JET. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE BERING
IS RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SO VERY BENIGN
CONDITIONS FOR OUT THERE WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A FEW SHOWERS. OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA THERE ARE A
LOT OF WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE ARE
PRODUCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES IN
OTHER AREAS. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION
IN THE CLEAR AREAS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH NORTH
PACIFIC LOW AS IT ROTATES BACK UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH
TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. AT THIS SAME POINT IN TIME
ALSO PREFER THE ECMWF/NAM WITH TRACK OF LOW DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE BERING SEA TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AROUND TO MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MAJOR STORM HEADS TOWARD SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. VERY WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. FOG WILL ALSO REMAIN A THREAT
AS AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AND SURFACE INVERSIONS
FORM AT NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED WINDS IN THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND NORTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MAJOR LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHITTIER IN PARTICULAR TENDS
TO OBSERVE STRONG WESTERLIES IN THESE SITUATIONS. OTHER THAN THAT
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS STORM TRACK REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES. PLAN TO UP CURRENT
FORECASTS TO ADD STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. A LOW
WILL THEN DROP OUT OF SIBERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRACK QUICKLY TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION
AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION REMAINING OVER THE MAINLAND
GULF. HOWEVER...THERE IS HUGE DISAGREEMENT ON INDIVIDUAL SHORT-WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. IN PARTICULAR...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A MAJOR
LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A WEAK LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A LOW NEAR
KAMCHATKA. THIS LEADS TO VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONE 121.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 11