Gale Warning 558, NWS Anchorage, AK

954 
FZAK51 PAFC 192355
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TO 
SOUTHERN COOK INLET TONIGHT AND THEN INLAND EARLY SAT. A SERIES 
OF FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE GULF SAT AND SUN.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE
WIND 45 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE EARLY THIS EVENING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDING TO 4 FT 
TOWARD MORNING. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT THIS EVENING AND SUBSIDING TO 3 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING THEN
BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SE OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SW 
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT...SUBSIDING TO 6 FT W OF THE BARREN 
ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 3 FT 
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT SHIFTING TO SW 25 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
125 PM AKDT THU AUG 18 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER JET WITH MAX SPEED
ESTIMATED AT 150KT+ EXTENDS OUT OF ASIA AND DUE EASTWARD ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS IS CAUSING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER
THE BERING TO DIG EASTWARD. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE BETWEEN THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS PLOWING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. AT THE SURFACE
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS ARE SITTING UNDER THE BERING TROUGH WITH A
TRIPLE POINT JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG SHORT-WAVE.

DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GULF TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN SOLID BAND
OF STRATIFORM RAINING MOVING ONSHORE OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THERE
ARE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THE
FACT THAT THIS IS NOT SOLELY DUE TO OVERRUNNING. MODELS ALSO
INDICATE UPPER LEVEL WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE BERING TROUGH SWINGING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE WESTERN GULF TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS FEATURE IS NOT VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH LIFT AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BERING
TROUGH. FINALLY...THERE ARE STILL SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING SHORT-WAVE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO GAIN A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM BUT THERE STILL ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN
THE MESO-SCALE. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN ROTATING THE STRONG BERING
SHORT-WAVE NORTHWARD AND DEVELOPING A SINGLE CONCENTRIC UPPER LOW.
THE OTHER MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS SWINGS FARTHER EAST INITIALLY
MAINTAINING A MORE ELONGATED UPPER CENTER OR A SPLIT CENTER. THIS
AFFECTS THE POSITION OF SURFACE LOW BENEATH THIS UPPER CENTER. OF
COURSE...THE MODELS ALL COME TOGETHER WITH THIS LOW BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL REGION THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN
MOVING THE WARM FRONT TOO RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WITH BARRIER JET ALL
THE WAY INTO THE SOUND BY TONIGHT. BASED ON THE MSLP FORECAST THE
COASTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE COPPER BASIN
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND COOK INLET AND THEN
DOWN TO A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SYNOPTIC NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH MEANS
BARRIER JET WILL NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH. THEREFORE...PLAN TO
GO HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS TO BETTER DEPICT
THIS. IN FACT...A GLANCE AT THE 18Z NAM SHOWS THAT IT IS TRENDING
IN THIS DIRECTION.

THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
WITH THE NAM BEING FASTEST IN MOVING IT INTO THE INLET. PREFER THE
GFS/UKMET SOLUTION OF STALLING IT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS
FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME FRAME SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE SURFACE
LOW WOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT PROGRESSES
NORTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PUSH INLAND TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND TO DIMINISH A BIT. AT THE SAME TIME THE
LOW LEVEL CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT DON'T EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPING AFFECT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TRIPLE POINT LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG GEOSTROPHIC
FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT WILL RE-ENFORCE THE
BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INLAND FRIDAY EVENING PUSHING STRONGER WINDS
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND TURNAGAIN ARM BEFORE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS OVER THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST WILL SEE SOME OF THE
STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION FROM THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AS THE STRONG
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL ZONE AS THE BERING LOW WRAPS
UP AND DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BECOMES DOMINANT.
THEREFORE...INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...NAMELY THE SOUTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...WILL BE RIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN.
RAIN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING
MOVES INTO THE GULF. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BREAK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
THE ARCTIC.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE REACHES THE EASTERN
BERING TONIGHT IT WILL CURVE NORTHWARD AND CREATE A NEW UPPER
CENTER EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SINGLE LOW AT THE SURFACE. ALL OF THIS WILL SHIRT EASTWARD
TO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO DROP
OUT OF THE ARCTIC AS WE HEAD TO NEXT WEEK PROVIDING BRIEF SHOTS
OF RAIN. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE WHICH MEANS FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN IT
HAS BEEN IN RECENT WEEKS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ATTENTION WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE ARCTIC
DURING THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 TIME PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WITH ENERGY DROPPING DOWN OUT
OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC CAUSING THE TROUGH TO BECOME RE-CENTERED
OVER THE BERING SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE LOTS
OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES. UNDER THIS
GENERAL PATTERN EXPECT FAIRLY CALM WEATHER AS WE HEAD THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES MOVING THROUGH. THE BERING SEA
OVER TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 130 140 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB AUG 11