Gale Warning 549, NWS Anchorage, AK

498 
FZAK52 PAFC 101138
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW NEAR 47N 166E WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR 55N 161E THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 

$$

PKZ150-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ155-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
$$

PKZ160-110300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DECREASING TO WIND 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-110300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-110300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT SOUTH AND EAST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT SOUTH AND EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-110300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT EAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 7
FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 15 KT EAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

PKZ176-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-110300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-110300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 10 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ALL
MODELS ARE CLOSE WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE REMNANTS OF EX
TYPHOON MERBOK PUTTING IT WEST OF ATTU BY FRI MORNING.  IT LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ENERGY OF THIS STORM WILL STALL IN THE WESTERN BERING AND
THEN BE ABSORBED BY A LOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOSTK.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE TO THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW FORMING IN THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ON WED.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
BERING SEA WITH AN AXIS ALONG 170W BY THU AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY
THROUGH SAT.

.AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE
MAINLAND.  SHOWERS ARE ENDING FROM THE WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE BERING AND IS SUPPORTING STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE
REGION. EX TYPHOON MERBOK IS ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ATTU AND
MOVING NORTHWARD.  MODELS PUT THIS STORM AT 50N 167W WED AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES TO 200 MILES WEST OF ATTU BY FRI
AFTERNOON.  THIS STORM WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS ENDING FORM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT.  LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL OFFSHORE FLOW
BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.  AS
A RESULT OF THE RIDGE OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE WED AND
THU WILL HELP TO DRY AND WARM MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL EAST OF CORDOVA
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD
JUST OFFSHORE OF WESTERN ALASKA TONIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND WED AND WED
NIGHT.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND COAST AT NIGHT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

.BERING SEA...ALEUTIANS... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE
APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF EX TYPHOON MERBOK TO THE WESTERN BERING
WED NIGHT. GALES AND STEADY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND WESTERN CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY AND
CALM ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY SUN WITH LOW
PRESSURE BRIDGING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF BY MID WEEK.
THE GULF OF ALASKA MID WEEK LOW WILL BEGIN OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA FRI
AND MOVE TO THE GULF BY MON.  A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL PERSIST NORTH
OF BARROW FROM SAT THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 175 176 410
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH AUG 11