Gale Warning 536, NWS Anchorage, AK

864 
FZAK62 PAFC 311151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 MB LOW OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 61N 173W AT 998 MB
WED NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB NEAR 59N 164W AT THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 312324
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011500-
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 MB LOW NEAR 61N 180 WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 168W AT 1002 MB
THU AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO NEAR 55N 159W AT 1003 MB THU NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI. 
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ411-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT SHIFTING TO NW TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
120 PM AKDT TUE AUG 30 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEY DIFFERENCES
ARISE WITH REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHICH THEN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA FRIDAY MORNING. THE PREFERRED SCENARIO FOR NOW FOLLOWS ALONG
THE LINES OF THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS IN SHOWING A MOSTLY NON-PHASING
SOLUTION AND A WEAKER SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL (EC) CONSISTENTLY DEPICTS A PHASING
SCENARIO BETWEEN A DIGGING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
BERING AND A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO IT FROM
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS RESULTS IN A FAR STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH MUCH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS (A
LARGE SWATH OF GALES) ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE
EC MODEL WE CAN NOT YET RULE OUT THE PHASING SCENARIO...SO THIS WILL
BEAR CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE EASTERN BERING
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE RIDGING ALOFT SITS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN MAINLAND. RADAR DEPICTS A SOLID
WALL OF RAIN MOVING ONSHORE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE PARENT SYSTEM
ORGANIZES OVER THE BERING AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A
SOUTHWESTERLY 120-KNOT JET STREAK CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN TO OVER 140 KNOTS AT ITS CORE
TONIGHT...WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET EXTENDING TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND THE LOWER COOK INLET REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER
IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE RESULT WILL BE A MOSTLY
STEADY RAIN OVER THE COOK INLET...SUSITNA VALLEY...AND NORTH GULF
COAST REGIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN OF TRANSITORY RIDGING OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIGGING FROM THE BERING EAST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
EXTENDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN
SYSTEM GETS FIRING TOWARDS MORNING AS A 140-KNOT JET STREAK NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE ORGANIZING PARENT LOW
MOVES EAST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...EXPECT TO SEE STEADY
RAIN OVERSPREAD ALL OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN) BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT RAPIDLY PROGRESSES
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE...TO BE FOLLOWED ON ITS HEELS BY A PROGRESSIVE
RIDGE. THURSDAY MIGHT BE THE BEST DAY TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE FAIR
UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARDS THE GULF BRINGS POSSIBLY ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY...BUT THIS SYSTEM MIGHT BE CONFINED MORE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK AT THIS TIME.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

A WET AND STORMY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF REPRIEVE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS TRANSITORY RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL PERSIST FROM EASTERN RUSSIA OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING AND EXTENDING TOWARDS EAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AS THESE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH...WITH LOW-END GALES AFFECTING THE BERING OFFSHORE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE EASTERN RUSSIA COAST TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE BERING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY MONDAY AS
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW EVOLVING INTO A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND...AND STRONG RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 AUG 11