Gale Warning 515, NWS Anchorage, AK

938 
FZAK51 PAFC 240352 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
750 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

UPDATE FOR ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF SUN AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT EAST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND. S WIND 25 KT FROM
MONTAGUE ISLAND WEST. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
750 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD THE MORNING. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT TOWARD THE MORNING. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE 35 KT NORTHEAST OF HINCHINBROOK
ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

691 
FZAK51 PAFC 241154
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REACHES
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST SUN AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS THEN BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011


.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS STACKED THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF
LOW DIRECTLY OVER A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS ALSO ABOVE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. A
WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN...AND IS DRIFTING NORTH OF THE AK RANGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
BERING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AK THIS EVENING AND DIFFUSE
INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN INTACT AS IT MOVES OVER WESTERN AK AND
PERSISTS THROUGH TUE. A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE WHEN IT
REACHES THE EASTERN GULF COAST SUN NIGHT. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE
GFS SOLUTION IN THE SHORT TO MID TERM AND THEN INCORPORATES HPC
GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING LOW TODAY.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION THAT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW STALLS OVER THE AREA.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUN AS THE BERING FRONT TRANSITS THE GULF. THE UPPER LOW WILL
THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION AND BRING MORE SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE AK RANGE AND THE APPROACHING BERING FRONT
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN IN SOUTHCENTRAL
TODAY...AND ALSO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE COPPER RIVER WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVER
SOUTHWEST AK NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
EXITS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDWEEK SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 155 165 170 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING ZONE 161

DS JUL 11