Gale Warning 504, NWS Anchorage, AK

595 
FZAK51 PAFC 141949 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1145 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

UPDATED ZONE 138

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. 

$$

PKZ120-150300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. N OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. N OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-150300-
RESURRECTION BAY
1100 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-150300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-150300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1100 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SW GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SW GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-150300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-150300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1145 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HEADLANDS AROUND BLACK
CAPE. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 16 FT NEAR BLACK CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FOOT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

601 
FZAK51 PAFC 142312
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-151500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT W WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...AFTERNOON AND EVENING S WIND 10 KT.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT NEAR
WHITTIER...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-151500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-151500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-151500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
STRONGER GUSTS 40 KT NEAR ENGLISH BAY IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

628 
FZAK51 PAFC 151201
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. 

$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.TODAY...S AND WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
ELSEWHERE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30
KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. ELSEWHERE...W
WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 6
FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
540 AM AKDT WED JUL 14 2011

.ANALYSIS...
.UPPER LEVELS...A COLD CORE LOW LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
BERING SEA. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A SECOND
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST REGION AND BRINGING
SHOWERS TO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL EARLY THIS MORNING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. A 90 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET STRETCHES FROM SAND POINT AND ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.

.AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW LIES BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE NORTH BERING. A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THIS LOW IS GENERATING
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AND SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS
THE SOUTH BERING. THE THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN AND IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS TYPICAL LOCATION NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSIVE BAROCLINC ZONE LIES SOUTH OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SO
THE NAM WAS USED IN THE SHORT TERM TO CAPTURE ALL OF THE LOCAL
EFFECTS. IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN CAPTURING THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
SHOWING POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN CAPTURING BOTH THE TRACKS AND
INTENSITIES OF THE WEAK LOWS AS THEY PROGRESS ACROSS THE BERING. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST ZONE LONG TERM
FORECAST THAN THE WEST REGION LONG TERM FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
MATANUSKA VALLEY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY THIS EVENING AND STAY RELATIVELY DRY
UNTIL A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DOMINATES THE REGION. STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP WARM
AND PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
TODAY...WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION TODAY. ONE WAVE HAS BEEN BRINGING
SHOWERS TO BETHEL ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. THESE WAVES WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH BRISTOL BAY...SO ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECTED
THERE TODAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PROXIMITY...WEAK WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.BERING AND ALEUTIANS...SURFACE RIDGING IS SUPPORTING FOG AND STRATUS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BERING. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY TONIGHT. A MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW WILL FOLLOW
QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS AND APPROACH SHEMYA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CURRENT PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND LOWS IN THE BERING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

ELN JUL 11