Gale Warning 463, NWS Anchorage, AK

342 
FZAK52 PAFC 081137
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1012 MB LOW 75 NM NORTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1014 MB
BEFORE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. A 979 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WEAKENS
TO 996 MB AS IT MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 8 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.ANALYSIS...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS
MOVED UP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IS HANGING TOGETHER MUCH BETTER
THAN ANY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD PROJECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WHILE A 978 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BUT AGAIN
SOME CONCERNS OVER THE INITIALIZATION. MODELS NEVER DID PICK UP ON
THE RAIN THAT DEVELOPED OVER ANCHORAGE BOWL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
LOOKS TO BE A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY...SO CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE
OUTGOING FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SHORT TERM CHALLENGES ARE CENTERED MAINLY AROUND THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE GULF COAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL MODELS HAD INDICATED THAT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD NOT BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR. CEILINGS REMAIN HIGH YET RAIN IS STILL FALLING...SO OTHER
LOCAL FACTORS MAY BE TAKING A LARGER ROLE.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
APPEARS TO BE REINFORCING THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS
PROLONGING THE AREA OF MAXIMUM LIFT. THIS LATEST DEVELOPMENT WOULD
DELAY THE EXPECTED CLEARING UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT
FINALLY ARRIVES OVER ANCHORAGE 3Z-6Z. WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD START
OUT PLEASANT BUT THEN MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW NEAR
KODIAK ISLAND FILLS IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT
THE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER UNDER THIS PATTERN.

LIKEWISE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE THE DRY SLOT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MUCH
LATER TODAY...AND EVEN THEN ONLY GIVE THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM A BREAK
FROM THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE LOW WINDS DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY NOSES FROM THE EASTERN BERING WILL THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR FINALLY SEE SOME FAIR WEATHER. OF COURSE IT DOES NOT LAST
LONG AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BY THE WEEKEND.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY...BUT WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
HAS REACHED ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS EAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STRATUS WILL
REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE BERING DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FIRE WEATHER...FOCUS REMAINS OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS RH DROPS BELOW 30 PERCENT.
EVEN WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AS EVIDENCED BY THE 31 DEGREE DEW POINT AT PAGK
AT NOON. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BUT
WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

AB JUN 11