Gale Warning 446, NWS Anchorage, AK

888 
FZAK62 PAFC 152301
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 50N 179W WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES
TONIGHT. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 51N 174W LATE TONIGHT AND
WEAKEN TO 1001 MB AS IT DRIFTS TO NEAR 50N 175W FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 PM AKDT TUE JUN 14 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WEEK SYNOPTICALLY. THE GFS
HAD BEEN AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE
CROSSING THE AKPEN AND STALLING IN THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS COME AROUND AND JOINED THE
CONSENSUS. THE EAST DOMAIN LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS MOVING
INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE
EXISTS OVER THE COOK INLET REGION WITH DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT OVER THE
REGION.

A SECOND MORE ROBUST MID LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER BRISTOL BAY AND
WILL CROSS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING RAIN AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.

OUT WEST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL STALL OVER THE
REGION FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED AND
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DIMINISHES GRADUALLY WITH TIME.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...

A WEAK UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING WET AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A SECOND LOW
WHICH IS CROSSING THE AKPEN THIS EVENING. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL
REACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STALL AFTER BECOMING CUT OFF
THE MAIN FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MAINLAND. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL AND
WET ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL THE LOW FINALLY MOVES INLAND
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAINLAND SOMETIME FRIDAY...THOUGH THE COOK
INLET REGION AND SUSITNA VALLEY MAY BEGIN DRYING OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW THE WEAK UPPER RIDGING ORIENTS ITSELF AND THE
INLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW IN THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

OUT WEST...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STALL NEAR THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND BRING RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THESE GALES MAY PUSH EAST ALONG A FRONT TOWARDS THE AKPEN FOR
THURSDAY...BUT THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND SAVE FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS...MAINLY TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A
WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST FRIDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

LOW PRESSURE STALLS OUT NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OR JUST SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKENS SLOWLY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AKPEN AND BRISTOL BAY
REGION THURSDAY...BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL LEAVE SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL BERING REGION THURSDAY ONWARD. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRIER
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY OUT NEAR SHEMYA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...170 172 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 JUN 11