Gale Warning 401, NWS Anchorage, AK

730 
FZAK52 PAFC 072315
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1004 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 90 NM WEST
OF PORT HEIDEN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE SUN AFTERNOON...THEN
EJECT INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON MON.

$$

PKZ150-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-081500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-081500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-081500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-081500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.WED AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BERING SIDE...SW 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 10 FT.

.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-081500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-081500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 10
FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-081500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-081500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-081500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT FRI MAY 6 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LONG-WAVE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS/RIDGES OF SIMILAR WAVELENGTH AND AMPLITUDE
FROM EASTERN ASIA TO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS MORNING THERE IS
A TROUGH EXITING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND. THIS IS PRODUCING SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING WHICH
IS AFFECTING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. HEADING UPSTREAM A BROAD TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. A VERY WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF ATKA. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...JUST LOTS OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NAM BECOMES A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH POSITION
OF LOW AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE BERING SEA TO GULF OF ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO WILL MAKE USE OF THE GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL CLEAR OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO CANADA.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL CLIP INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WHICH WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
THE DENALI HIGHWAY CORRIDOR FROM CANTWELL TO PAXSON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD OF SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND BERING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE DAY WILL START OUT SUNNY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL FULLY ENCOMPASS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN DOWN OVER THE
GULF...SO MAIN IMPACT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE CLOUDY
SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE SUN
BY MONDAY AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF AND FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO BERING SEA TROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW HOWEVER WILL BE MAINLY OFFSHORE...SO THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS
THAT MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE BERING LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARD BRISTOL
BAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF MONDAY. THIS WILL
CONFINE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH
JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS YOU HEAD NORTHWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND EXIT TO THE GULF ON
MONDAY. RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OUT OF
ASIA WHICH WILL LEAD TO FORMATION OF MORE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS
THE BERING SEA. WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE STRONGER...LIKELY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER WAVE TRAIN WILL SLOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE TO
MAINLAND BY MID WEEK. WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO INTERIOR ALASKA SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE.
COMBINATION OF LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE 60S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA. THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW WILL BE FORCED NORTHWARD TO EASTERN
RUSSIA DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM HOWEVER WILL MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR SURGING OUT AHEAD OF IT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 11