Gale Warning 396, NWS Anchorage, AK

001 
FZAK62 PAFC 301147
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-310300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 999 MB LOW NEAR 49N 173E WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 51N 179E TUE MORNING.
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 52N 168W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 981 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 57N 171W TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO 976
MB AS IT MOVES TO 58N 176W TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ411-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

421 
FZAK62 PAFC 302306
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311500-
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 48N 166W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 58N 173W TUE AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 59N 179W 
WED AFTERNOON AT 978 MB. 
$$

PKZ411-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF 56N...WINDS BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. N OF 56N...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-311500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. W OF 167W...WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

JAM

628 
FZAK62 PAFC 311151
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB LOW NEAR 57N 171W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 57N 174W TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 61N 179E 
WED NIGHT AT 984 MB. A 987 MB LOW NEAR 44N 179W ON WED WILL MOVE TO
49N 173W WED NIGHT AT 980 MB.

$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 312331
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011500-
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR 57N 173W WILL WEAKEN TO 987 MB AS IT MOVES TO 60N
175E THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 48N 174W
WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 984 MB...THEN STRENGTHEN TO 978 MB AS IT MOVES
TO NEAR 53N 168W THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S OF 56N...NW WIND
30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N OF 56N...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. S OF 56N...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. E OF 173W...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-011500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JAM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A LARGE
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO A SMALLER AND
WEAKER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. AS THE GULF LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST RIDGING FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH IS BEGINNING TO
PINCH OFF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE LOWS. THE SOUTHWARD BUILDING
OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN MAINLAND IS RESULTING IN DECREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE
GULF COAST IS SITTING UNDER A STRATUS DECK...BUT EXPECT INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO HELP GET RID OF AT LEAST SOME OF THIS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS A
LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
BERING ROTATES NORTHWARD. THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS QUITE HARMLESS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND
1000 MB. HOWEVER...A 100 TO 150KT UPPER JET MOVING AROUND THE
SOUTH TO EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER CENTER IS RESULTING IN SURFACE
LOW FORMATION OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS DOWNSTREAM
LOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM(S) OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS VERY CONSISTENT
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF TWO LOWS...WITH THE FIRST LOW MOVING TO NEAR
DUTCH AS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW AND THEN A SECOND LOW FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR TRACK AND QUICKLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT LOW MONDAY NIGHT.
SINCE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF WITH HANDLING
OF THIS SYSTEM PLAN TO BLEND EXISTING FORECAST 50 PERCENT TOWARD
THE 12Z ECMWF. ELSEWHERE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OF SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT PROVIDING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE..REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINTAINING CLOUDY SKIES INLAND. MOST OF
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT MONDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND RIDGE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD BACK SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY
BECOMING CENTERED RIGHT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. EVEN WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY
TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY
PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOOKS MUCH MORE STABLE AND
CAN EXPECT A SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...INSTEAD
STRETCHING OUT ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THUS...EXPECT A
MUCH WEAKER FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE BULK OF OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG
THE GULF COAST...COOK INLET...AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH VERY
LITTLE ELSEWHERE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
DEEPER LOW(S) MOVING UP INTO THE BERING SEA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY AN
UPPER CENTER WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD. THE CURRENT LOW NEAR
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND MERGE INTO THE ROTATION
AROUND THE NEW LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NEXT MAJOR STORM TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA
REGION WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON SONGDA. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING...BUT SHOW THE SAME BASIC SOLUTION WITH
THE MAIN CENTER TRACKING TO THE EASTERN BERING OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AND A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND AND MOVING INTO THE GULF. RIDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
SHOULD KEEP THE WORST OF THE IMPACTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE
EASTERN BERING AND GULF. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING OF IMPACTS
OF THIS SYSTEM IS THURSDAY OUT WEST AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...155 160 165 170 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAY 11