Gale Warning 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

989 
FZAK62 PAFC 261252
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 59N 173W WEAKENS TO 988 MB WED NIGHT NEAR 59N 178W
AND THEN DISSIPATES. A 964 MB LOW NEAR 43N 180 INTENSIFIES TO 954 MB
WED AFTERNOON NEAR 46N 173W AND THEN WEAKENS TO 967 MB THU NIGHT AS
IT MOVES TO 57N 172W.
$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
175W. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF
175W. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED JAN 26 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  

$$

JAM JAN 11

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON
EASTERN GULF LOW THAT FORMS TONIGHT.  EAST DESK IS GOING TO USE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH PRODUCES A PRONOUNCED CUT-OFF LOW WHICH MOVES ONSHORE
OVER ICY BAY WED LATE MORNING. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT LOW FORMING
JUST SOUTH OF KENAI PEN WED AND THEN MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE POWERFUL ALEUTIAN STORM THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING IS
ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BEGINNING
MID-DAY TOMORROW.  GFS AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PRESSURE AND
POSITION THROUGH THUR AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 955 WITH PLENTY OF STRONG SE WINDS FOR AREAS EAST OF 170W.
ALSO LOOKS AS PRETTY GOOD SOURCE OF COLD AIR ON WESTERN SIDE OF STORM
SO EXPECT SOME STRONG NW WINDS THU MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL BERING AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AT THE SURFACE THERE IS AN ELONGATED LOW
IN THE NORTHERN BERING THAT MOVES TO THE WEST WED AND THEN MERGES
WITH CENTRAL ALEUTIAN STORM. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AK. CURRENT NW GULF LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW SHOWERS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...EXPECT STRONG SE WINDS AND RAIN EAST OF 170W STARTING
WED MID-DAY.  WEST DESK MIGHT ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHERN AK
PEN.  AS NOTED ABOVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG NW IN CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW AS WELL.

SOUTHWEST...AS FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL
DECREASE BUT LOW CLOUDS TO FOLLOW. FRONT FROM ALEUTIAN SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE ONSHORE BEGINNING LATE THU MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SOME POTENT
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THUR AND FRI. LOOKS AS
IF PRECIP COULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WHICH MEANS POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AS WELL.

SOUTHCENTRAL...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND CHANCE
OF SNOW INLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE REMNANT OF FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH ALEUTIAN STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH COOK INLET BEGINNING
LATE THU NIGHT. LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS HOWEVER AS LITTLE
SUPPORT ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR MORE THAN LIGHT PRECIP.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL FORECASTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND ALASKA ON THU.  THIS WILL STEER ALEUTIANS
SYSTEM TOWARD THE GULF OF ANADYR FRI NIGHT. LOOKS AS IF ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM MOVES TOWARD EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUN AFTERNOON.  HIGH
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE GULF SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES: 413 160 180 171 175 179 185  STORMS: 155 165 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JAN 11